Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)</a> announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok  which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.</li>
<li>TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.</li>
<li>It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ) announced on Monday a partnership with TikTok  which would combine former’s e-commerce biz Tokopedia with TikTok Shop Indonesia.
TikTok was forced to close its e-commerce services in Indonesia following regulations banning online shopping on social media platforms in September citing protection of smaller merchants and data privacy.
It seems TikTok will certainly be a winner if the deal is approved but surprised at GoTo’s move to retain a minority stake given e-commerce business is nearing profits.


GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ)</a> has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.</li>
<li>There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. </li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok in order to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce platform.
There had been earlier indications that a deal was in the offing but the size of TikTok's stake was surprising plus it has committed to invest US$1.5bn in Tokopedia. 

GoTo will retain a 24.99% non-dilutive stake and will receive an ongoing revenue stream from Tokopedia in line with its scale and growth contributing directly to its EBITDA. 


External broker reports(aggregated public sources), BRI Danareksa Research

BRI Danareksa Research

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

As a one-stop financial solution with the vision to be the most valuable securities house, BRI Danareksa Sekuritas (BRIDS) has maintained an excellent track record and extensive experience in the capital market as an underwriter, broker, and financial advisor for individual, institutional, foreign and domestic, private and government clients. Established in 1992, PT Danareksa Sekuritas is a securities company that performs activities as a securities broker, underwriter, or arranger and financial advisor.

<ul><li>Following the delivery of GTV recovery in 3Q23, we view positively GOTO’s strategic pivot away from a stringent EBITDA breakeven by YE-2023 and a shift in focus towards GTV growth &amp; profitability of its e-commerce operations.</li><li>We reaffirm our BUY rating but with a lower TP of Rp98 (from Rp150 previously), incorporating a lower premium on valuation.</li><li>3Q23 takeaways: GTV growth recovery. The new Gojek &amp; Gopay initiatives (i.e. Hemat, Logistics, BNPL, loans, Gopay app) successfully spurred transactions growth in 3Q23 (+5% qoq) through increasing users’ buying frequency. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Following the delivery of GTV recovery in 3Q23, we view positively GOTO’s strategic pivot away from a stringent EBITDA breakeven by YE-2023 and a shift in focus towards GTV growth &amp; profitability of its e-commerce operations.We reaffirm our BUY rating but with a lower TP of Rp98 (from Rp150 previously), incorporating a lower premium on valuation.3Q23 takeaways: GTV growth recovery. The new Gojek &amp; Gopay initiatives (i.e. Hemat, Logistics, BNPL, loans, Gopay app) successfully spurred transactions growth in 3Q23 (+5% qoq) through increasing users’ buying frequency. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GoTo (GOTO.IJ IDR 62 BUY.TP IDR 98) Strategic pivot reinforces positive outlook

<ul>
<li>Following the delivery of GTV recovery in 3Q23, we view positively GOTO’s strategic pivot away from a stringent EBITDA breakeven by YE-2023 and a shift in focus towards GTV growth &amp; profitability of its e-commerce operations</li>
<li>We reaffirm our BUY rating but with a lower TP of Rp98 (from Rp150 previously), incorporating a lower premium on valuation.3Q23 takeaways: GTV growth recovery.Thenew Gojek &amp; Gopay initiatives (i.e</li>
<li>Hemat, Logistics, BNPL, loans, Gopay app) successfully spurred transactions growth in 3Q23 (+5% qoq) through increasing users’ buying frequency</li>
</ul>
Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.


Following the delivery of GTV recovery in 3Q23, we view positively GOTO’s strategic pivot away from a stringent EBITDA breakeven by YE-2023 and a shift in focus towards GTV growth &amp; profitability of its e-commerce operations
We reaffirm our BUY rating but with a lower TP of Rp98 (from Rp150 previously), incorporating a lower premium on valuation.3Q23 takeaways: GTV growth recovery.Thenew Gojek &amp; Gopay initiatives (i.e
Hemat, Logistics, BNPL, loans, Gopay app) successfully spurred transactions growth in 3Q23 (+5% qoq) through increasing users’ buying frequency

Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

GoTo (GOTO.IJ): Strategic Pivot Reinforces Positive Outlook

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's</a> 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.</li>
<li>The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. </li>
<li>GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.</li>
</ul>



GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA breakeven, with much more colour on its new initiatives.
The company's focus on budget consumers and more affordable product offerings are already expanding its TAM and improving product density and productivity, speeding progress towards productivity. 
GoTo will continue to invest in growth, which may mean it misses its 4Q adjusted EBITDA breakeven target but it has reduced cash burn significantly giving it more breathing space.


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk engages in the retail business for several types of products such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, household appliances, and management consulting services.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk operates department stores in Indonesia which sell items such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, and daily needs. Its department stores are known as Ramayana, Robinson, and Cahaya.

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk retails sporting goods. The Company operates an online portal that offers a wide range boots, shoes, sandals, shorts, caps, hoodies, and accessories. Map Aktif Adiperkasa serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Multipolar Tbk imports, trades, distributes, retails, and services computers and related products. The Company provides computer equipment rental, informatics engineering, and management services. Multipolar, through its subsidiaries, also provides share administration services.

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk operates in the retail telecommunication business.  The Company operates retail stores in cities throughout Indonesia that offer a wide range of branded cellular phones.

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk assembles, and distributes automobiles, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company provides automotive maintenance, financing, and rental services.  Indomobil also trades used cars.

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is a holding company for companies and trusts in a third party franchise agreement. The franchises operate stores under the name "Harvey Norman Discounts," selling home wares and electrical goods. The Company also provides advisory and advertising to the franchises. In addition, the Company provides consumer finance and has property investments.

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion retailer of apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children.  The Company operates through multiple retail channels, discount stores, boutiques, catalogs, and on the Internet. Nordstrom, Inc. also offers, through a subsidiary, private label card credit and debit cards.

Woolworths Holdings Limited is a South African-based retail group. The Group, operates a chain of retail stores offering a selected range of clothing, food, homeware, beauty and financial services under its own brand name. The Company also owns a clothing and homeware retailer and has stores in selected African countries and the Middle East.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo: Thoughts on the New Tokopedia/TikTok Partnership

GoTo's move to sell a majority stake in Tokopedia at a time the business is nearing positive EBITDA has surprised us, and we think TikTok will...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - TikTok Taking Tokopedia

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia has announced that it will sell a controlling 75.01% stake in Tokopedia to TikTok to create Indonesia's leading e-commerce...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo (GOTO.IJ IDR 62 BUY.TP IDR 98) Strategic pivot reinforces positive outlook

We reaffirm our BUY rating but with a lower TP of Rp98 (from Rp150 previously), incorporating a lower premium on valuation.

BRI Danareksa Research

GoTo (GOTO.IJ): Strategic Pivot Reinforces Positive Outlook

Following the delivery of GTV recovery in 3Q23, we view positively GOTO’s strategic pivot away from a stringent EBITDA breakeven by YE-2023 and a...

BRI Danareksa Research

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - New Initiatives Gaining Traction and Increasing Productivity

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia's 3Q2023 results were far more illuminating and encouraging than the last 2Qs, with more progress towards adjusted EBITDA...

Angus Mackintosh

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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