Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.</li>
<li>However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.</li>
<li>With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?</li>
</ul>



GoTo (GOTO IJ) reported 1Q2023 results yesterday. Gross revenue increased 14.3% YoY to IDR5.98trn while adjusted EBITDA losses further declined to IDR3.52trn from IDR5.94trn in 1Q2022.
However, all growth matrices point towards a slowdown compared to the previous quarter with gross revenues of all segments and On-demand take rate declining QoQ in 1Q2023.
With GoTo prioritising profits over growth, we expect the company’s growth rates to further decline and wonder if the company could hold it for long?


GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The IDX has announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a> will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of <strong>66.4%</strong> at the close on 7 June.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/waskita-karya-persero-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15739:1" rel="noopener">Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/buyung-poetra-sembada-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28454:1" rel="noopener">Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ)</a> will be deleted from the IDX80 index.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo (GOTO IJ)</a>. Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. </li>
</ul>


The IDX has announced that GoTo (GOTO IJ) will be included in the IDX30, LQ45 and IDX80 indices at a float of 66.4% at the close on 7 June.

Waskita Karya (Persero) (WSKT IJ) will be deleted from the IDX30 and LQ45 indices, while Buyung Poetra Sembada PT (HOKI IJ) will be deleted from the IDX80 index.
Passive trackers need to buy around 12.78% of the real float on GoTo (GOTO IJ). Add the impact from open ended funds and that could move up to 20%. 


GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

ASEAN Insight Provider, CrossASEAN Research

Angus Mackintosh

ASEAN Insight Provider

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  </li>
<li>1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a>'s guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.</li>
</ul>



GoTo announced its much-anticipated FY2021 and 1Q2022 results, which did not disappoint, with improvements in a number of different metrics across its main verticals.  
1Q2022 saw a QoQ increase for on-demand, e-commerce, and fintech versus a seasonally strong 4Q plus the group improved take rates and contribution margin in 1Q2022 versus 4Q2021.

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to improve profitability and growth.


GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.</li>
<li>Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.</li>
<li>The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.</li>
</ul>


Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range.
Buka is an Indonesian e-commerce company. The company operates an online consumer-to-consumer (C2C) marketplace. It also operates Mitra Bukalapak (Mitra) which provides online-to-offline (O2O) services to MSMEs.
The pre-IPO shareholders will be released from the lockup on 6th April 2022.


Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential synergies and benefits of the move. </li>
<li>After the deal completes, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goto-gojek-tokopedia-tbk-pt" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25976:1" rel="noopener">GoTo</a> will cede all management control but will receive a revenue stream from core GTV, which excludes digital products and certain big-ticket items.</li>
<li>Plumbing for this deal effectively de-risks its exposure to e-commerce given it is not required to inject any new capital but it does take away future optionality on Tokpedia's growth.  </li>
</ul>



GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential synergies and benefits of the move. 
After the deal completes, GoTo will cede all management control but will receive a revenue stream from core GTV, which excludes digital products and certain big-ticket items.
Plumbing for this deal effectively de-risks its exposure to e-commerce given it is not required to inject any new capital but it does take away future optionality on Tokpedia's growth.  


GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Plumbing for a More Certain Future

Indonesia

PT Mitra Adiperkasa Tbk operates department stores and specialty stores selling a broad range of goods including clothing, toys, food, and other merchandise.

Bukalapak.com PT Tbk provides e-discretionary services. The Company offers range of electronics, food, shoes, apparel, watches, bags, cosmetics products, and other accessories. Bukalapak.com serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Matahari Department Store Tbk engages in the retail business for several types of products such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, household appliances, and management consulting services.

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk operates department stores in Indonesia which sell items such as clothes, accessories, bags, shoes, cosmetics, and daily needs. Its department stores are known as Ramayana, Robinson, and Cahaya.

PT MAP Aktif Adiperkasa Tbk retails sporting goods. The Company operates an online portal that offers a wide range boots, shoes, sandals, shorts, caps, hoodies, and accessories. Map Aktif Adiperkasa serves customers in Indonesia.

PT Multipolar Tbk imports, trades, distributes, retails, and services computers and related products. The Company provides computer equipment rental, informatics engineering, and management services. Multipolar, through its subsidiaries, also provides share administration services.

PT ACE Hardware Indonesia Tbk retails tools, home improvement products, lawn and garden supplies, plumbing, furniture, sporting goods, and pet supplies.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk operates in the retail telecommunication business.  The Company operates retail stores in cities throughout Indonesia that offer a wide range of branded cellular phones.

PT Tunas Ridean Tbk and its subsidiaries operate automobile dealerships that sell new and used motor vehicles, spare parts and accessories as well as provide after-sales services.  Through its subsidiary, PT Tunas Financindo Corporation, the Company also provides operating lease and consumer financing services.

PT Indomobil Sukses Internasional Tbk assembles, and distributes automobiles, buses, trucks, motorcycles, and their related parts. The Company provides automotive maintenance, financing, and rental services.  Indomobil also trades used cars.

Takashimaya Company, Limited., founded in Kyoto in 1831, operates department stores.  The Company's main stores are located in Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Takashimaya also operates department stores in Paris, France, Singapore, China, Australia, and New York, USA.  The Company retails clothing, foods, art objects, sundry goods, and household utensils.  The Company also operates restaurants.

Harvey Norman Holdings Limited is a holding company for companies and trusts in a third party franchise agreement. The franchises operate stores under the name "Harvey Norman Discounts," selling home wares and electrical goods. The Company also provides advisory and advertising to the franchises. In addition, the Company provides consumer finance and has property investments.

RYOHIN KEIKAKU CO., LTD. is a retailer and wholesaler of Mujirushi Ryohin brand products, which were originally a generic private-brand product.  The Company's product line includes knitwear, food, and household items

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co., Ltd operates supermarkets and department stores in Guangzhou, China.  The Company sells a variety of consumer products, including apparel, food and beverages, electronics, jewelry, cosmetics, and electric appliances.  Guangzhou Friendship also leases real estate properties.

Guangzhou Friendship Group Co, Ltd. (000987 CH)

J. FRONT RETAILING CO., Ltd. is a holding company established through the merger of Daimaru and Matsuzakaya.  J. FRONT RETAILING operates department stores and supermarkets. The Company also manages subsidiaries which operate in wholesale businesses.

MARUI GROUP CO., LTD. operates department stores which sell clothing, accessories, home appliances, and food stuffs.  The Company also provides consumer loan services.  Marui Group operates in the Tokyo area.

Macy's, Inc. operates department stores in the United States.  The Company also operates direct mail catalog and electronic commerce subsidiaries. Macy's retail stores sell a wide range of merchandise, including men's, women's and children's apparel and accessories, cosmetics, home furnishings and other consumer goods.

Nordstrom, Inc. is a fashion retailer of apparel, shoes, and accessories for men, women, and children.  The Company operates through multiple retail channels, discount stores, boutiques, catalogs, and on the Internet. Nordstrom, Inc. also offers, through a subsidiary, private label card credit and debit cards.

Woolworths Holdings Limited is a South African-based retail group. The Group, operates a chain of retail stores offering a selected range of clothing, food, homeware, beauty and financial services under its own brand name. The Company also owns a clothing and homeware retailer and has stores in selected African countries and the Middle East.

Hainan Island Construction Co Ltd.  is a property development company. The Company also operates regional malls and hotels.

PT GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk operates as an e-commerce platform. The Company offers mobility, food delivery, logistics, e-commerce, and financial technology solutions. GoTo Gojek Tokopedia serves customers in Indonesia.

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GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT (GOTO IJ)

GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

GoTo's losses narrowed down further with huge cuts to promotions and selling and marketing costs. However, growth rates have started to slow down...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

IDX will add GOTO to the IDX30, LQ45 & IDX80 indices at the close on 7 June. A float of 66.4% (vs 4% real float) will require passive trackers to...

Brian Freitas

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to...

Angus Mackintosh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Plumbing for a More Certain Future

GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential...

Angus Mackintosh

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

GoTo: Sacrificing Growth to Improve Profitability

GoTo's losses narrowed down further with huge cuts to promotions and selling and marketing costs. However, growth rates have started to slow down...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

GoTo Index Inclusion: Fast Entry to IDX30, LQ45, IDX80 Confirmed; BIG Buying Next Week

IDX will add GOTO to the IDX30, LQ45 & IDX80 indices at the close on 7 June. A float of 66.4% (vs 4% real float) will require passive trackers to...

Brian Freitas

GoTo (GOTO IJ) - Ploughing a Path to Profitability

GoTo's guidance for 2Q2022 is positive and it should be boosted by higher commission rates plus continuing synergies across the group, helping to...

Angus Mackintosh

Bukalapak IPO Lock-Up - Scattered Shareholding Could Put Some Pressure on the Share Price

Bukalapak (Buka) raised US$1.5bn in Aug 2021 when it priced its IPO at the top end of its pricing range. The pre-IPO shareholders will be released...

Sumeet Singh

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia (GOTO IJ) - Plumbing for a More Certain Future

GoTo senior management hosted an analyst call last week to provide further details on both the reasons behind the Tokopedia sale and the potential...

Angus Mackintosh