Data-Driven Commodity Research, The Commodity Report

The Commodity Report

Data-Driven Commodity Research

A unique newsletter about commodities and macro analysis in a weekly format.

Commodities

<ul><li>Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.</li><li>Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.</li><li>Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.</li></ul>

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.Yield improvements are projected to account for 79% of global crop production growth, cropland expansion for 15%, and higher cropping intensity for 6% over the outlook period.Global growth of sugar consumption will be driven entirely by Africa and Asia, with demand projected to surge in areas where the level of per capita intake is currently low.

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.</li>
<li>China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.</li>
</ul>


Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.
China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.


Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

<ul><li>Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.</li><li>The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.</li><li>We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.</li></ul>

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will likely do more rate hikes.The, in some parts, stronger-than-expected job market data we received last week confirmed that view once again.We find it interesting that gold hasn’t shown more weakness yet - even as rates continue to rise again.

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of the Atlantic.</li><li>But markets are of course forward-looking and though recent strength has offered some momentum and the “inevitable recession” keeps getting postponed, markets are nonetheless expecting inflation to decelerate and central banks to change course in the coming months.</li><li>If so the historic downsizing of balance sheets will be done already (the temporary bottom was so far in during Q4-2022).</li></ul>

Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of the Atlantic.But markets are of course forward-looking and though recent strength has offered some momentum and the “inevitable recession” keeps getting postponed, markets are nonetheless expecting inflation to decelerate and central banks to change course in the coming months.If so the historic downsizing of balance sheets will be done already (the temporary bottom was so far in during Q4-2022).

EM BY EM #11 Hangover After the Gold Rush? - Steno Signals

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div data-component-type="container"><ul><li>Between the start of the year and 4 May, gold prices rallied by 13%. Since then, they have lost momentum.</li><li>Investors don’t seem eager to buy gold at current levels probably because prices are relatively close to all time high and if prices fall, the current level could not be seen for more than 5 years. </li><li>Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of this year.</li></ul></div><div data-component-type="container"><p>Last week, we changed our Fed view and also our US dollar view. We now expect a recession to start in Q4 and rate cuts to come in Q1 2024. We expect the last rate hike of 25bp at the Fed’s July meeting and no rate cuts this year. We still forecast aggressive rate cuts in 2024. We now have a total of 175 basis point of rate cuts in 2024.</p></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Between the start of the year and 4 May, gold prices rallied by 13%. Since then, they have lost momentum.Investors don’t seem eager to buy gold at current levels probably because prices are relatively close to all time high and if prices fall, the current level could not be seen for more than 5 years. Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of this year.Last week, we changed our Fed view and also our US dollar view. We now expect a recession to start in Q4 and rate cuts to come in Q1 2024. We expect the last rate hike of 25bp at the Fed’s July meeting and no rate cuts this year. We still forecast aggressive rate cuts in 2024. We now have a total of 175 basis point of rate cuts in 2024.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

United States

Gold is a chemical element with the symbol Au (from Latin: aurum) and the atomic number 79. In its purest form, it is a bright, slightly reddish yellow, dense, soft, malleable and ductile metal. Chemically, gold is a transition metal and a group 11 element. It is one of the least reactive chemical elements, and is solid under standard conditions. The metal therefore occurs often in free elemental (native) form, as nuggets or grains, in rocks, in veins and in alluvial deposits. It occurs in a solid solution series with the native element silver (as electrum) and also naturally alloyed with copper and palladium. Less commonly, it occurs in minerals as gold compounds, often with tellurium (gold tellurides).

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Gold (GOLD COMDTY)

How Much Do Commodity Prices Rise when Fertilizer Prices Rise?

Global crop production growth will mainly be driven by continued progress in plant breeding and a transition to more intensive production systems.

The Commodity Report

Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Markets are incredibly eager to discount lower inflation, pushing the Fear & Frenzy Sentiment further into Frenzy territory.

Jeroen Blokland

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? // The Big Sugar Rush

Why isn’t Gold starting to sell off? In last week’s report, we already highlighted that the golden metal stays unattractive - as the Fed will...

The Commodity Report

EM BY EM #11 Hangover After the Gold Rush? - Steno Signals

Gold has managed to maintain its ground recently and remains above the $1900 level on the back of stronger-than-expected hard data on both sides of...

Steno Research

Gold - Downgrade of gold price outlook

Previously, we did not hold the view of aggressive rate cuts to come in the near-term but we had expected the easing cycle to start at the end of...

ABN AMRO

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