Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Capital Markets

GoTo Gojek Tokopedia Tbk PT / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls over the last 12-months and how these stocks have performed to assess the effectiveness of our calls.</li>
<li>We made explicit buy/sell calls on 12 IPOs during this period with a hit-rate of 83.3% with Grab, GoTo, Cloud Music, SenseTime and Leapmotor IPOs making the highest returns.</li>
<li>We also wrote on several other IPOs during this period, however, those IPOs have not received approval yet.</li>
</ul>


As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls over the last 12-months and how these stocks have performed to assess the effectiveness of our calls.
We made explicit buy/sell calls on 12 IPOs during this period with a hit-rate of 83.3% with Grab, GoTo, Cloud Music, SenseTime and Leapmotor IPOs making the highest returns.
We also wrote on several other IPOs during this period, however, those IPOs have not received approval yet.


Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

Brilliance China Automotive / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.</li>
<li>Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see 3 potential adds for the HSCI in December. We also see 26 potential adds and 16 potential deletes for the index in March.
Following the March rebalance, we see 22 potential inclusions to Stock Connect while we expect 37 stocks to be removed from the link.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

Zhejiang Leapmotor Technologie / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.</li>
<li>Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.</li>
<li>Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.</li>
</ul>


We see three new listings as potential inclusions to the HSCI in December. One is already in Stock Connect, one will be added to Stock Connect while one will not.
Given the large market moves, there will be many changes to the HSCI in March 2023. Quite a few stocks could remain in the HSCI but drop out of Connect.
Some of the potential deletions/ Stock Connect drops have large Southbound holdings and some of these positions could be pared back over the next few months.


HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

<ul>
<li>There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.</li>
<li>19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.</li>
<li>Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.</li>
</ul>


There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) at the September rebalance to take the number of index constituents up to 518.
19 of the 24 HSCI inclusions will be added to Southbound Stock Connect, while 12 of the 14 HSCI deletions will be removed from Southbound Stock Connect.
Five of the HSCI constituents could be removed from Southbound Stock Connect only since the average market cap over the last year is less than HK$5bn.


HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

Overseas Chinese Equities, Aequitas Research

Ming Lu

Overseas Chinese Equities

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JD.com opened a physical shopping mall and we believe it is following Alibaba.</li>
<li>JD.com signed contract with a state-owned power company for two reasons.</li>
<li>Two suppliers applied for the liquidation of Suning.com to the court.</li>
</ul>


JD.com opened a physical shopping mall and we believe it is following Alibaba.
JD.com signed contract with a state-owned power company for two reasons.
Two suppliers applied for the liquidation of Suning.com to the court.


China Internet Weekly (11Jul2022): JD.com, Alibaba, Suning.com, GoGoX

Hong Kong

Feiyu Technology International Co Ltd is a video-game developer. The Company is primarily focused on the development and operation of mobile games.

ABC Multiactive Limited, through its subsidiaries, designs and sells computer software for e-business, Customer Relationship Management (CRM), e-finance, Internet trading, and e-training, and provides related professional and maintenance services.

GET Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides system solutions to assist its customers in defining their online business strategies. The Company also develop customized e-commerce systems and integrate web applications and platform services.

Sing Lee Software Group Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops and provides information and network technologies and services to the financial industry in China.

China e-Wallet Payment Group Limited provides biometrics and RFID products and solutions. The Company offers biometric access control devices, asset management systems, transport monitoring, and intelligent surveillance solutions. China e-Wallet Payment Group serves customers worldwide.

Aurum Pacific (China) Group Limited provides software solutions. The Company designs and develops comprise translation, information security, Internet application, and entertainment software solutions. Aurum Pacific (China) Group serves customers in Hong Kong.

Founder Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, develops software and provides systems integration services.  The Company also distributes computer products and invests in real estate.

Inspur International Limited, through its subsidiaries, distributes, sources, and resells IT (Information Technology) products in Hong Kong, China, and overseas markets.

Sino-i Technology Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates information technology business and provides financial information and related services. The Company also develops and invests in properties, sells consumer packaged electronics products, and trades securities.  In addition, Sino-i Technology operates hotels and distance learning and application services.

Maxnerva Technology Services Ltd offers IT services. The Company provides manufacturing, office, and new retail solutions. Maxnerva Technology Services serves customers in China.

Reckon Limited distributes, publishes, supports and markets financial management software in Australia.  The Company's products are developed locally by the Group or republished under license from Intuit.  The Company's software targets personal financial management, SME financial management and financial planning and are sold under the "Quicken" brand.

DigitalX Ltd operates as a software solutions company. The Company operates in the global digital payments systems industry through disruptive fintech solutions in the remittance and value chain sectors, and allows consumers to make secure and cost-effective money transfers worldwide..

Cheetah Mobile Inc develops internet and mobile enhancement software and applications. The Company develop and operates and internet browser, and internet security, memory saving, power optimization, mobile games, and photo collage applications. Cheetah Mobile operates in China.

Rexit Bhd, through its subsidiaries, provides business application solutions. The Company's services range from conceptual development and project management, to overall systems implementation.  Rexit has developed and owns software application solutions, such as insurance management, imaging and workflow systems, and wireless radio frequency identification tracking systems.

Fun Yours Technology Co. Ltd. develops and sells role-playing computer games in Taiwan.

Appasia Berhad engages in the research, development, and sale of information communication technology (ICT) security systems, and provision of related professional services in Malaysia.

KL-Net Corp. provides system integration services and electronic data interchange (EDI) service, which enables government agencies and businesses process their transactions electronically.  The Company also markets computer hardware and software, and operates Internet portal service website.

Telcoware Co., Ltd. provides mobile infrastructure solutions and services.  The Company's products include wireless transmission of data and voice systems, such as home location registers, gateway location registers, authentication centers, telephony and IP integration systems, and instant messaging.

TOSE CO., LTD. develops gaming software and creates online contents for smartphones and the Internet. The Company also provides arcade games and mobile apps.

Nable Communications, Inc. provides communication solutions for operators, enterprises, and handset vendors. The Company provides IMS enabler solutions, IMS client framework and IP telephony solutions.

Gogox Holdings Limited develops online intra city logistics platforms. The Company provides value added services, capable of catering to evolving demand of shippers, drivers and other participants in our ecosystem. Gogox Holdings provides its services throughout Hong Kong.

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GoGoX Holdings (2246 HK)

Our IPO Calls for 2022

As 2022 comes to an end, we revisit our IPO calls for 2022 and assess the performance of these calls which had a hit rate of 83.3%. Some of the...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Changes at the Margins

We see 3 inclusions for the index in Dec, and then 26 adds/16 deletions in March. Following the March rebal, we see 22 adds/37 deletions for Stock...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in December & March (There's a Lot!)

There could be 3 adds in December while there will be MANY more changes in March. The adds should outnumber the deletes, but there will be many...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance: 24 Adds, 14 Deletes & Changes to Stock Connect

There are 24 adds and 14 deletes for the HSCI at the September rebalance. 19 stocks will be added to Stock Connect and 12 will be removed. Some of...

Brian Freitas

China Internet Weekly (11Jul2022): JD.com, Alibaba, Suning.com, GoGoX

JD.com opened a physical shopping mall and we believe it is following Alibaba. JD.com signed contract with a state-owned power company. Two...

Ming Lu

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