Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

MSCI Emerging Markets Index / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. </li>
<li>The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).</li>
<li>The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).</li>
</ul>


In our February 6, 2023 EM Strategy, we discussed that we were buyers of the MSCI EM (EEM-US) on a pullback to the 50-day MA. 
The pullback went a bit deeper but managed to hold at our $37.50 line-in-the-sand which we discussed in our recent ETF Pathfinder reports (Mar. 6 and Mar. 20, 2023).
The EEM-US displays a bullish 2-month downtrend reversal- add exposure. Signs continue to point to a topping DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. EAFE).


MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Glodon Company Limited A / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Glodon delivered a strong set of FY22 with revenue of RMB6.59bn (+17% YoY) and net profit of RMB963mn (+46% YoY).</li><li>We are encouraged to see that construction costing SaaS newly signed contract amount has attained the RMB4bn target.</li><li>We are positive to see improving margins from operating leverage although project-based construction management business FY22 revenue missed as COVID resurgence in FY4Q22 has caused temporary delays in delivery. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Glodon delivered a strong set of FY22 with revenue of RMB6.59bn (+17% YoY) and net profit of RMB963mn (+46% YoY).We are encouraged to see that construction costing SaaS newly signed contract amount has attained the RMB4bn target.We are positive to see improving margins from operating leverage although project-based construction management business FY22 revenue missed as COVID resurgence in FY4Q22 has caused temporary delays in delivery. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Glodon (002410 CH) – Clear operating leverage from SaaS

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>We screen for companies that are at record positioning among active Asia Ex-Japan managers, whilst capturing strong investment growth over the last 6-months.</li>
<li>9 companies stand out, led by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/yum-china-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23677:1" rel="noopener">Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)</a>  and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/glodon-company-limited-a" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10536:1" rel="noopener">Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH)</a> </li>
<li>These 9 stocks have accelerated to a record combined weight of 3.04%.  The rate of increase has been remarkable, with average weights doubling since the end of March 2022.  </li>
</ul>


We screen for companies that are at record positioning among active Asia Ex-Japan managers, whilst capturing strong investment growth over the last 6-months.
9 companies stand out, led by Yum China Holdings, Inc (YUMC US)  and Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH) 
These 9 stocks have accelerated to a record combined weight of 3.04%.  The rate of increase has been remarkable, with average weights doubling since the end of March 2022.  


<ul>
<li>The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.</li>
<li>As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.</li>
<li>China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.</li>
</ul>


The MSCI EM vs.EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the DXY peaked in November 2022, and also shows signs of reversing the 2-year downtrend.
As long as the DXY remains below $103.50-$106, we expect outperformance from EM to continue.
China/Hong Kong, Greece, South Africa, and Mexico stand out as attractive countries. Our top actionable Sectors include Communications, Consumer Discretionary, and Technology. We highlight 76 attractive EM stocks.


EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

iShares MSCI China ETF / Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.</li>
<li>We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.</li>
<li>And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)</li>
</ul>


We remain neutral on global equities (MSCI ACWI), we believe upside remains limited with the MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), S&amp;P 500, and several European indexes still below major resistance.
We continue to expect rangebound price action in the months ahead on the MSCI ACWI.
And, rangebound price action could very well be the theme for all of 2023 (with resistance at $93 and support at $75-77 on ACWI-US)


Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

China

Glodon Company Limited develops application softwares for basic construction industry. The Company's products include construction engineering cost management software and project cost management software. The Company also provides related training and consulting services.

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Glodon Company Limited A (002410 CH)

MSCI EM $EEM 2-Month Downtrend Reversal at Support -- Add Exposure. Upgrading Taiwan to Overweight

Signs continue to point to a topping $DXY, and a declining DXY has historically resulted in EM outperformance (vs. $EAFE). Many ideas in China/Hong...

Vermilion Research

Glodon (002410 CH) – Clear operating leverage from SaaS

Glodon announced preliminary FY22 results on 20 Feb. Revenue was RMB6,587mn (+17% YoY), 4% below our and consensus forecast

CMB International

Asia Ex-Japan's Rising Stars

We screen for companies in the Asia Ex-Japan region that are not widely held but are at record levels of ownership among actively managed funds.

Steven Holden

EM Outperformance to Continue (Vs. EAFE) -- Add on a Pullback; DXY Needs to Hold Below $106

EM vs. EAFE ratio (local currency) shows EM has outperformed relative to EAFE since the $DXY peaked in November 2022. If the DXY remains below...

Vermilion Research

Hang Seng and MSCI China Bottoming -- Add; Europe Still Leading; Shift From U.S. To Non-U.S.

We remain neutral on global equities $ACWI and expect rangebound price action in the months (possibly year) ahead. Specific $ACWI trading range we...

Vermilion Research

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