UK: 40% Recovery in May-20 Split Unevenly
UK retail sales rebounded by double the expected amount in May-20, with the 12% m-o-m rise recovering 40% of the level lost in the lockdown. A...
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BoE: Slowing Stimulus Surprisingly Soon
The BoE has increased its asset purchase target by £100bn. Rather than being a top-up until August, though, the MPC will stretch the programme...
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UK: Inflation in May-20 Approaches Its Trough
UK inflation data matched expectations for the CPI to slow to 0.5% y-o-y while the RPI was 18bp below my forecast at 1.04%. The latter surprise...
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UK: Unemployment Still Resists Rising in Apr-20
The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in April, contrary to all expectations, including my forecast from the consensus’ bullish fringe. The UR is...
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UK: GDP Mirrors Retail Crash in April-20
UK GDP collapsed by 20.4% m-o-m in April-20 as the economy endured the most intense phase of total lockdown. The 3.5 times greater fall in April...
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