Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Winter Is Coming to Crush the Recovery

UK: Recovery Stalling Before Winter Winds

UK: Passing the Peak Rebound Pace into August

UK: GDP Starts Recovery Within a Brutal Q2

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>UK GDP grew by 6.6% m-o-m in July, broadly matching the Consensus expectation. Nonetheless, activity is still 11.8% below February levels, with only 54% of the decline recovered. That is worrying when most sectors had reopened by then.</em></li>
<li><em>Retail reopened relatively early, so GDP’s recovery is naturally lagging by about a month. However, it is also languishing, with the lagged ratio of growth rates slowing from 0.7 to 0.47. Slowing so soon is disappointing for the demand outlook.</em></li>
</ul>


UK GDP grew by 6.6% m-o-m in July, broadly matching the Consensus expectation. Nonetheless, activity is still 11.8% below February levels, with only 54% of the decline recovered. That is worrying when most sectors had reopened by then.
Retail reopened relatively early, so GDP’s recovery is naturally lagging by about a month. However, it is also languishing, with the lagged ratio of growth rates slowing from 0.7 to 0.47. Slowing so soon is disappointing for the demand outlook.


UK: GDP Recovery Lags and Languishes in Jul-20