UK: Jobs Making All the Right Moves at End-19
Employment maintained rapid growth in 4Q19 at 180k, in line with my forecast. Sampling effects have exaggerated the upswing after similarly...
328 Views
UK: GDP Rebound Begins in Dec-19
UK GDP ended 2019 on a strong note after a 0.3% m-o-m December rebound. The constant average level of activity in 4Q19 was depressed by dodgy...
311 Views
UK: Surveys Smashing Doves in Jan-20
The services PMI surged to 53.9 in Jan-20: 1-point up on the flash and almost four up on Dec-19. The decisive election outcome has crushed...
319 Views
BoE: Rate Cut Resisted as Reaction Function Flexes
The MPC split 7-2 again in favour of keeping Bank rate at 0.75%, which surprised some expectations for a rate cut but was consistent with my...
320 Views
BoE: Carney’s Parting Policy Mistake?
The MPC seems to have lost confidence in its forecast and become myopic, which increases the weight on recent data weakness. However, those data...
385 Views