Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Labour Resilience Ahead of Brexit Resolution

UK: Political Risk Subsides on a Massive Majority

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Employment maintained rapid growth in 4Q19 at 180k, in line with my forecast. Sampling effects have exaggerated the upswing after similarly distorting its downturn, but the resilient underlying message is now consistently reflected.</li>
<li>Jobseekers now have a record high propensity to find work, while the net flow of jobs is surging towards higher-skilled work, in further encouraging signs.</li>
<li>Inflationary pressures are building as wage growth has weakened far less than productivity, which was hit by temporary output distortions. The downtrend in measures of slack has continued, and vacancies have recovered 25% of their dip.</li>
</ul>


Employment maintained rapid growth in 4Q19 at 180k, in line with my forecast. Sampling effects have exaggerated the upswing after similarly distorting its downturn, but the resilient underlying message is now consistently reflected.
Jobseekers now have a record high propensity to find work, while the net flow of jobs is surging towards higher-skilled work, in further encouraging signs.
Inflationary pressures are building as wage growth has weakened far less than productivity, which was hit by temporary output distortions. The downtrend in measures of slack has continued, and vacancies have recovered 25% of their dip.


UK: Jobs Making All the Right Moves at End-19