Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Jobs Making All the Right Moves at End-19

UK: Political Risk Subsides on a Massive Majority

UK: Labour Market Tighter than BoE Believes

UK Politics: Polls Still Point to a Small Majority

UK Politics: Polls Converge on a Majority

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Oct-19, as I expected, but is now on the cusp of rounding down, contrary to the consensus forecast for an increase.</li>
<li>Employment and hours have remained resilient to the Brexit uncertainty, despite its depressing effect on vacancies, which should rebound in the new year.</li>
<li>Average wage growth has slowed, but not the associated inflationary pressures. Real wages remain relatively rapid while persistently poor productivity growth stokes unit wage cost pressures.</li>
</ul>


The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Oct-19, as I expected, but is now on the cusp of rounding down, contrary to the consensus forecast for an increase.
Employment and hours have remained resilient to the Brexit uncertainty, despite its depressing effect on vacancies, which should rebound in the new year.
Average wage growth has slowed, but not the associated inflationary pressures. Real wages remain relatively rapid while persistently poor productivity growth stokes unit wage cost pressures.


UK: Labour Resilience Ahead of Brexit Resolution