Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Jobs Making All the Right Moves at End-19

UK: Labour Resilience Ahead of Brexit Resolution

UK: Political Risk Subsides on a Massive Majority

UK Politics: Polls Still Point to a Small Majority

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Employment unexpectedly surged by 208k 3m-o-3m in Nov-19, even ahead of any potential Boris-bounce to other activity data. The labour market still looks much healthier to me than widely perceived elsewhere, including by policymakers.</li>
<li>Vacancies also started to recover in Q4, although most new job adverts will have been held until the new year. A bullish vertical normalisation in the Beveridge curve has begun, in my view, which would remove its recent disinflationary signal.</li>
<li>Headline wage growth has slowed slightly, but disinflation and falling productivity support underlying pressures. Unit wage cost growth is more consistent with rate hikes than cuts, but that doesn’t mean the MPC won’t mistakenly cut next week.</li>
</ul>


Employment unexpectedly surged by 208k 3m-o-3m in Nov-19, even ahead of any potential Boris-bounce to other activity data. The labour market still looks much healthier to me than widely perceived elsewhere, including by policymakers.
Vacancies also started to recover in Q4, although most new job adverts will have been held until the new year. A bullish vertical normalisation in the Beveridge curve has begun, in my view, which would remove its recent disinflationary signal.
Headline wage growth has slowed slightly, but disinflation and falling productivity support underlying pressures. Unit wage cost growth is more consistent with rate hikes than cuts, but that doesn’t mean the MPC won’t mistakenly cut next week.


UK: Employment Booms Before Boris-Bounce