Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK: Reprofiled GDP Doesn’t Create Dovish Slack

BoE: Rate Cut Resisted as Reaction Function Flexes

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

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<li><em>The services PMI surged to 53.9 in Jan-20: 1-point up on the flash and almost four up on Dec-19. The decisive election outcome has crushed political uncertainty, thereby fuelling a rebound that is smashing the dovish argument about the UK.</em></li>
<li><em>I see these data as broadly consistent with my bullish forecast for 0.4% q-o-q Q1 GDP growth, although the coronavirus shock may curb the rebound. As usual, I will review this forecast in light of the forthcoming monthly GDP release.</em></li>
</ul>


The services PMI surged to 53.9 in Jan-20: 1-point up on the flash and almost four up on Dec-19. The decisive election outcome has crushed political uncertainty, thereby fuelling a rebound that is smashing the dovish argument about the UK.
I see these data as broadly consistent with my bullish forecast for 0.4% q-o-q Q1 GDP growth, although the coronavirus shock may curb the rebound. As usual, I will review this forecast in light of the forthcoming monthly GDP release.


UK: Surveys Smashing Doves in Jan-20