Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist, True Insights

Jeroen Blokland

Global Multi-Asset Investment Strategist

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Our research helps investors build well-diversified multi-asset portfolios and profit from market developments. In addition, our unique and proven Macro – Sentiment – Valuation (MSV) investment framework ensures a consistent flow of new investment opportunities. Together with our market views, these opportunities will be reflected in our live ETF-based Global Multi-Asset Portfolios.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Unlike US headline inflation UK inflation has ample room to come down in the remainder of the year. </li>
<li>Lackluster GDP growth and headline inflation returning to target requires less tight monetary policy. This means that the gap between UK and US 2-year yields will likely turn negative again.</li>
<li>The Bank of England is the only major central bank for which markets can still price out a considerable number of rate hikes. </li>
</ul>


Unlike US headline inflation UK inflation has ample room to come down in the remainder of the year. 
Lackluster GDP growth and headline inflation returning to target requires less tight monetary policy. This means that the gap between UK and US 2-year yields will likely turn negative again.
The Bank of England is the only major central bank for which markets can still price out a considerable number of rate hikes. 


Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

FX & Rates

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship publication “Steno Signals”.</li>
<li>We have had a great week trading-wise except for being stopped out in our EUR/USD shorts and we find the price action in the USD extremely interesting to assess.</li>
<li>Could the moves we see in FX space be a harbinger of an unexpected cyclical rebound?</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship publication “Steno Signals”.
We have had a great week trading-wise except for being stopped out in our EUR/USD shorts and we find the price action in the USD extremely interesting to assess.
Could the moves we see in FX space be a harbinger of an unexpected cyclical rebound?


Steno Signals #57 – What on earth is going on with the USD?

Head of Research, Steno Research

Emil Moller

Head of Research

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global markets.</li><li>Main takeaway: Bond bears had a significant setback this week following a mild inflation report – and that comes after a substantial surge in yields the previous week.</li><li>Now, we eagerly examine the market’s repositioning here in the aftermath of the reversal.</li></ul>

Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global markets.Main takeaway: Bond bears had a significant setback this week following a mild inflation report – and that comes after a substantial surge in yields the previous week.Now, we eagerly examine the market’s repositioning here in the aftermath of the reversal.

Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?

<ul>
<li>Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.</li>
<li>Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.</li>
<li>China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.</li>
</ul>


Unlike headline inflation, US Core CPI will likely continue to drop in the remainder of the year, but equity markets are way ahead of themselves again.
Our Fear &amp; Frenzy Sentiment Index has moved further into Frenzy territory, indicating the current rally is at imminent risk.
China's economic momentum is vanishing with headline inflation at zero, while exports are down 5% from their peak, signaling the global economy will not come to the rescue.


Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

<ul><li>We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.</li><li>Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.</li><li>What makes Norway and the UK stand out?</li></ul>

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that in the data.Core inflation momentum (MoM annualized) is below target in several large economies including the US, France and Brazil, but there are a few odd ones out with substantially increasing core inflation momentum such as Norway and the UK.What makes Norway and the UK stand out?

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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TRADE IDEA: Short GBP, Long USD

We expect UK inflation to converge with US inflation, central bank rates to somewhat normalize, and markets to price out more Bank of England rate...

Jeroen Blokland

Steno Signals #57 – What on earth is going on with the USD?

Happy Sunday and welcome to our weekly flagship publication “Steno Signals”. We have had a great week trading-wise except for being stopped out in...

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – Preparing for (dis)inflation?

Welcome back to the weekly Positioning Watch, where we crunch through the positioning data and point out the biggest positioning trends in global...

Steno Research

Equity Markets – Is Icarus Flying Too Close to the Sun?

Markets are incredibly eager to discount lower inflation, pushing the Fear & Frenzy Sentiment further into Frenzy territory.

Jeroen Blokland

Inflation Watch: Why Norway and the UK are the odd ones out on inflation

We have been banging the drum on soft inflation data in the US and in the Euro area for a while and we are currently seeing the very signs of that...

Steno Research

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