Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-The fiasco at the Conservative party conference last week leaves Theresa May fatally weakened, but retained in office as the lamest of ducks because the alternatives are worse. On a 1- and 2-year view, we would be solidly underweight Sterling, as the Brexit process heads inexorably toward a bad outcome for Britain -- given a weak government negotiating with an EU that is determined to ensure that Britain suffers sufficient negative consequences (on trade and immigration) to deter other nations…

-The fiasco at the Conservative party conference last week leaves Theresa May fatally weakened, but retained in office as the lamest of ducks because the alternatives are worse. On a 1- and 2-year view, we would be solidly underweight Sterling, as the Brexit process heads inexorably toward a bad outcome for Britain -- given a weak government negotiating with an EU that is determined to ensure that Britain suffers sufficient negative consequences (on trade and immigration) to deter other nations…

Theresa May Is Now the UK's Gerald Ford, with a Carter-Like Era Waiting in the Corbynista Wings

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday.  Asian currencies led the fall, enthusiastically followed by developed market currencies, including EUR and GBP.  Political uncertainty continues to undermine the USD.  Trump’s battles with Senator Corker, the NFL, North Korea, Iran, the media, and Democrats over ‘Dreamers’ creates a sense of chaos that dampens prospects for tax reform.  Global economic recovery continues to support global equity markets, and investors are more willing to take EM currency exposure to avoid elevated political risk in the USA.  EM currencies have lagged a rebound in EM equities in the last two weeks and started to play catch-up on Tuesday.  Strong German factory orders, industrial production, and exports support the EUR.  Sentix Eurozone investor confidence also rose to a new high and Spanish separatist threats have eased.  A global economic recovery is dragging the UK along for the ride, increasing the likelihood of BoE rate hikes. UK political risk may now ease from elevated levels.

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Industrial output data were broadly better in August, with manufacturing and construction both stronger than expected. Gas data was weaker than the National Grid flows but may yet be revised. Recent revisions were anyway supportive.</li>
<li>External trade was the weak patch amid a surge in imports. Some correction from semi-manufactured good and fuel imports is possible, but I continue to doubt net trade’s ability to raise GDP growth.</li>
<li>
Output data have settled down to track Q3 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q,…</li>
</ul>


Industrial output data were broadly better in August, with manufacturing and construction both stronger than expected. Gas data was weaker than the National Grid flows but may yet be revised. Recent revisions were anyway supportive.
External trade was the weak patch amid a surge in imports. Some correction from semi-manufactured good and fuel imports is possible, but I continue to doubt net trade’s ability to raise GDP growth.

Output data have settled down to track Q3 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q,…


FLASH: UK Industry Supports 0.4% Q3 GDP Growth

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month.  It seems the market is sceptical that the recent rise in the USD will last, and has been in a ‘sell-the-rally’ frame of mind.  However, the rise in the USD has been consistent with a higher short and long-term yield advantage.  US economic reports, including the labor data on Friday, support the notion that the USD can rise further.  The USD has rallied in part due to a rejuvenated push for tax reform.  However, it appears that the market retains a significant risk premium (discounting the USD) to account for US political uncertainty.

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

<ul>
<li>Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been recovering since. Sales growth in Q3 is unusually high with an even larger swing to support GDP growth. </li>
<li>Scrappage schemes and attractive credit policies are also helping, albeit with some financial risks. Stress tests mostly miss the risks rising in this sector, though, with losses set to increase sharply beyond the 10% price fall under consideration.</li>
</ul>The…


Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been recovering since. Sales growth in Q3 is unusually high with an even larger swing to support GDP growth. 
Scrappage schemes and attractive credit policies are also helping, albeit with some financial risks. Stress tests mostly miss the risks rising in this sector, though, with losses set to increase sharply beyond the 10% price fall under consideration.
The…

FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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Theresa May Is Now the UK's Gerald Ford, with a Carter-Like Era Waiting in the Corbynista Wings

-The fiasco at the Conservative party conference last week leaves Theresa May fatally weakened, but retained in office as the lamest of ducks...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Trump's 'reality Show' Hurts the Dollar, Euro and UK Look Perky

After a tepid start to the week on Monday, where US bond markets were closed for Colombus Day, the USD has fallen significantly on Tuesday. Asian...

Greg Gibbs

FLASH: UK Industry Supports 0.4% Q3 GDP Growth

Industrial output data were broadly better in August, with manufacturing and construction both stronger than expected. Gas data was weaker than...

Phil Rush

Skeptical Market Is Very Short US Dollars

Surprisingly, futures positioning in the USD moved to a new high in net shorts on 3-Oct, despite the rebound in the USD over the last month. It...

Greg Gibbs

FLASH: UK Car Sales Recovering; Stress Would Be Nonlinear

Gloomy headlines about new car registrations falling 9.3% y-o-y overstate current weakness. Sales were stricken by tax changes but have been...

Phil Rush

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