Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Inflation: Ready to Fly Lower for Easter 2018

UK Inflation: Softening Trend and Seasonals

FLASH: UK Inflation Broadly Disappoints in Mar-18

FLASH: UK Inflation Steady with Domestic Pressures

FLASH: UK Labour Market Helping the MPC to Hike

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>UK CPI inflation surprised with an increase to 3.1% y-o-y in November, which looks likely to be its peak, while RPI inflation has probably already peaked.</li>
<li>Airfares are likely to be relatively soft in December owing to the index date probably keeping most measured journeys before Christmas rather than the expensive trips straddling the holiday.</li>
<li>Games and toys have been strong but negative payback may not occur yet. New computer game releases have been backloaded, thereby raising the average price.</li>
<li>…</li>
</ul>


UK CPI inflation surprised with an increase to 3.1% y-o-y in November, which looks likely to be its peak, while RPI inflation has probably already peaked.
Airfares are likely to be relatively soft in December owing to the index date probably keeping most measured journeys before Christmas rather than the expensive trips straddling the holiday.
Games and toys have been strong but negative payback may not occur yet. New computer game releases have been backloaded, thereby raising the average price.
…


UK Inflation: Passing the Peak