Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Philip Rush is the Founder and Chief Economist of Heteronomics. Until launching in November 2016, he was Nomura's Senior European Economist and was the Chief UK Economist there since 2010. Before that, he was UK Economist at Barclays Wealth, where he also developed strategic asset allocation models for their market return portfolios. Philip started his career at Lehman Brothers covering the UK, Scandinavian and Swiss economies. A book on his fundamental framework was published in January 2018 as "Real Market Economics".

Chief Economist

UK Inflation: Softening Trend and Seasonals

FLASH: UK Inflation Broadly Disappoints in Mar-18

FLASH: UK Inflation Stays Soft Ahead of Summer Rise

BoE: Hawkish Hurdles in Slow Race to Neutral

BoE Preview: Trade-Off in Tighter Conditions

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Recreation stabilised CPI inflation in January, but further falls lie ahead. Distortions to airfares from an earlier Easter may mean April inflation disappoints expectations then. The MPC won’t see those numbers before its May decision.</li>
<li>Domestic-focused cuts of the CPI have strengthened while inflation in imported items has started to slow. Additional rate hikes are required to bring inflation back to the target, and I expect the MPC to deliver.</li>
</ul> The mixed surprises in the headline January rates…


Recreation stabilised CPI inflation in January, but further falls lie ahead. Distortions to airfares from an earlier Easter may mean April inflation disappoints expectations then. The MPC won’t see those numbers before its May decision.
Domestic-focused cuts of the CPI have strengthened while inflation in imported items has started to slow. Additional rate hikes are required to bring inflation back to the target, and I expect the MPC to deliver.
 The mixed surprises in the headline January rates…

UK Inflation: Ready to Fly Lower for Easter 2018