Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to the UK.</li>
<li>Amid acute April weakness in the ONS data, manufacturing output is likely to be far weaker in Q2 than either the PMI or CBI surveys suggest, even assuming a rebound in May. Seasonal adjustment issues are probably partly to blame.</li>
<li>
Warm weather continues to contract energy flows on the national grid. Falls in oil and gas extraction in May will…</li>
</ul>


The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to the UK.
Amid acute April weakness in the ONS data, manufacturing output is likely to be far weaker in Q2 than either the PMI or CBI surveys suggest, even assuming a rebound in May. Seasonal adjustment issues are probably partly to blame.

Warm weather continues to contract energy flows on the national grid. Falls in oil and gas extraction in May will…


FLASH: UK Energy Offsets Late-2Q18 Manu’ Bounce

<ul>
<li>
Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.2% q-o-q in the ONS’s third estimate, contrary to almost all forecasts. Construction continued its pattern of persistent upside revisions and now subtracts only 5bp from GDP growth, 25% of what it initially did.
</li>
<li>The new monthly profile for construction isn’t yet known, but pencilling in the usual pattern raises my Q2 GDP forecast back to 0.4% q-o-q. With concerns about the consumer abated too, I still expect the MPC to raise Bank rate again in August.</li>
</ul>The…



Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.2% q-o-q in the ONS’s third estimate, contrary to almost all forecasts. Construction continued its pattern of persistent upside revisions and now subtracts only 5bp from GDP growth, 25% of what it initially did.

The new monthly profile for construction isn’t yet known, but pencilling in the usual pattern raises my Q2 GDP forecast back to 0.4% q-o-q. With concerns about the consumer abated too, I still expect the MPC to raise Bank rate again in August.
The…

FLASH: UK GDP Story Rewrite Helps Aug-18 Hike

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Some upside risk for GBP after the BoE firmed plans to hike in August and PM May keeps hold of the Brexit reins.  AUD looks beaten down on weak EM assets.  However, the rumour mill suggests that the USA and China may restart trade talks.  Australian bank shares have rebounded from their lows, mining companies have announced new capex plans, and the Australian government has passed income tax cuts.  Any settling of nerves over US-China trade should also bolster the AUD/NZD after NZ GDP slowed below trend and below Australian GDP in Q1

Some upside risk for GBP after the BoE firmed plans to hike in August and PM May keeps hold of the Brexit reins.  AUD looks beaten down on weak EM assets.  However, the rumour mill suggests that the USA and China may restart trade talks.  Australian bank shares have rebounded from their lows, mining companies have announced new capex plans, and the Australian government has passed income tax cuts.  Any settling of nerves over US-China trade should also bolster the AUD/NZD after NZ GDP slowed below trend and below Australian GDP in Q1

<ul>
<li>The BoE MPC left monetary policy unchanged in June, but Andy Haldane joined Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty in dissenting for an immediate rate hike. All economists in the Consensus except me had forecast an unchanged vote split.</li>
<li>I continue to expect the next rate hike in August, although it remains dependent on the data. The main dovish data risk remaining is in the April index of services on 29 June, in my view.</li>
<li>
The exit strategy was also discussed, with reinvestments now expected to cease…</li>
</ul>


The BoE MPC left monetary policy unchanged in June, but Andy Haldane joined Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty in dissenting for an immediate rate hike. All economists in the Consensus except me had forecast an unchanged vote split.
I continue to expect the next rate hike in August, although it remains dependent on the data. The main dovish data risk remaining is in the April index of services on 29 June, in my view.

The exit strategy was also discussed, with reinvestments now expected to cease…


<ul>
<li>Retail sales trounced expectations again in May by surging 1.3% to well above its trend. Negative payback is likely, but other measures support the strong</li>
<li>Confidence and consumer credit data have also rebounded recently. My tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth is now at 0.34% q-o-q.</li>
<li>Concerns about the health of the consumer appear increasingly misplaced. Evidence of this should encourage the BoE to hike again in August.</li>
</ul> Data about the British consumer had broadly weakened earlier in the year to the…


Retail sales trounced expectations again in May by surging 1.3% to well above its trend. Negative payback is likely, but other measures support the strong
Confidence and consumer credit data have also rebounded recently. My tracking estimate of Q2 GDP growth is now at 0.34% q-o-q.
Concerns about the health of the consumer appear increasingly misplaced. Evidence of this should encourage the BoE to hike again in August.
 Data about the British consumer had broadly weakened earlier in the year to the…

FLASH: UK Consumer Beats Doubters in May-18

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

FLASH: UK Energy Offsets Late-2Q18 Manu’ Bounce

The UK’s manufacturing PMI held broadly stable at 54.4 in Jun-18. Euro area weakness has removed the survey’s froth and caused convergence back to...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK GDP Story Rewrite Helps Aug-18 Hike

Q1 GDP growth was revised up to 0.2% q-o-q in the ONS’s third estimate, contrary to almost all forecasts. Construction continued its pattern of...

Phil Rush

Upside Potential for AUD and GBP

Some upside risk for GBP after the BoE firmed plans to hike in August and PM May keeps hold of the Brexit reins. AUD looks beaten down on weak EM...

Greg Gibbs

FLASH: Haldane Joins the Hawkish Dissent

The BoE MPC left monetary policy unchanged in June, but Andy Haldane joined Michael Saunders and Ian McCafferty in dissenting for an immediate...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK Consumer Beats Doubters in May-18

Retail sales trounced expectations again in May by surging 1.3% to well above its trend. Negative payback is likely, but other measures support...

Phil Rush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)