Chief Economist, Heteronomics

Phil Rush

Chief Economist

Heteronomics

Heteronomics represents a different kind of economics. We believe analysis should delve into the details of what is really going on, rather than using overly simplistic assumptions to quick-sell stories. Independence from myopic institutional pressures allows us to focus on the realities underlying your asset allocation decisions, without the conflicts of the old market structures. Heteronomics targets the themes driving UK asset prices, offering the benefits of depth, independence and ultimately price.

UK-centric macro research

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a temporary rise in the UR, but I still forecast further falls through 2019.</li>
<li>Flows have been better recently, and the still strong vacancies support my view that upward pressure on the UR is not a disinflationary demand shock.</li>
<li>Surging wage growth is a surprisingly strong signal of the tightening labour market. Hours are not distorting the current move, unlike earlier in the year, although some support may be coming from up-skilling flows within the labour market.</li>
</ul>


The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a temporary rise in the UR, but I still forecast further falls through 2019.
Flows have been better recently, and the still strong vacancies support my view that upward pressure on the UR is not a disinflationary demand shock.
Surging wage growth is a surprisingly strong signal of the tightening labour market. Hours are not distorting the current move, unlike earlier in the year, although some support may be coming from up-skilling flows within the labour market.


UK Cycle: Up-Skilled Surge in Tight Labour Market Pay

<ul>
<li>The government, facing defeat, has postponed the parliamentary vote on its Brexit deal with the EU. A minor concession continues to look likely, although it may not now be enough to ensure victory when the vote is eventually held.</li>
<li>A vote next week looks most likely to me, but it might slip to the new year as it need only occur by 28 March. If the EU Council does not open a route to an imminent palliative, the BoE will not have enough visibility to hike in Feb-19.</li>
</ul>


The government, facing defeat, has postponed the parliamentary vote on its Brexit deal with the EU. A minor concession continues to look likely, although it may not now be enough to ensure victory when the vote is eventually held.
A vote next week looks most likely to me, but it might slip to the new year as it need only occur by 28 March. If the EU Council does not open a route to an imminent palliative, the BoE will not have enough visibility to hike in Feb-19.


FLASH: UK Political Palliative Sought Before Voting

<ul>
<li>UK monthly GDP grew by 0.1% m-o-m in Oct-18, as expected. A soft statistical carry-over effect still looks set to slow GDP growth to a low 0.3% q-o-q in 4Q18.</li>
<li>Manufacturing output was the main sectoral source of surprise weakness. It is, nonetheless, probably related to new emissions standards, so should be temporary.</li>
</ul>


UK monthly GDP grew by 0.1% m-o-m in Oct-18, as expected. A soft statistical carry-over effect still looks set to slow GDP growth to a low 0.3% q-o-q in 4Q18.
Manufacturing output was the main sectoral source of surprise weakness. It is, nonetheless, probably related to new emissions standards, so should be temporary.


FLASH: UK GDP Offset Vehicle Disruption in Oct-18

<ul>
<li>The UK’s services PMI fell by a further 1.8 points to 50.4 in Nov-18. Only the unreliable construction survey remains above its post-referendum average.</li>
<li>Falling by 3.9-points in 3-months is unusually large, but 70% of falls over 3% have been partially unwound the following month. The exceptions were in weaker stages of the global economic cycle. Nov-18 may turn out to be a local trough.</li>
</ul>


The UK’s services PMI fell by a further 1.8 points to 50.4 in Nov-18. Only the unreliable construction survey remains above its post-referendum average.
Falling by 3.9-points in 3-months is unusually large, but 70% of falls over 3% have been partially unwound the following month. The exceptions were in weaker stages of the global economic cycle. Nov-18 may turn out to be a local trough.


FLASH: UK's Nov-18 Slowdown May Be the Trough

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the global economy dominated markets on Tuesday. However, the Fed has softened its tone, the US and China have restarted negotiations,  Pro-EU members of the UK parliament appear to have gained ascendancy, and Italy is trying harder to reach a budget accord with the EU.  There seems more reason for US, UK, EU and Asian asset markets to recover rather than falter.

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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UK Cycle: Up-Skilled Surge in Tight Labour Market Pay

The UK unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK Political Palliative Sought Before Voting

The government, facing defeat, has postponed the parliamentary vote on its Brexit deal with the EU. A minor concession continues to look likely,...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK GDP Offset Vehicle Disruption in Oct-18

UK monthly GDP grew by 0.1% m-o-m in Oct-18, as expected. A soft statistical carry-over effect still looks set to slow GDP growth to a low 0.3%...

Phil Rush

FLASH: UK's Nov-18 Slowdown May Be the Trough

The UK’s services PMI fell by a further 1.8 points to 50.4 in Nov-18. Only the unreliable construction survey remains above its post-referendum...

Phil Rush

Pro-EU Side Gains Ascendancy in UK Parliament

Risk aversion on uncertain events from the US-China truce to Brexit and various other issues; including the OPEC meeting, and uncertainty over the...

Greg Gibbs

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Market Cap (USDm)

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