Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.</li><li>The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.</li><li>The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.</li></ul><p><em>This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.</em></p>

The market is pricing in a 25 basis point cut in the June meeting, with additional easing expected to reach a neutral level by the first half of 2025.The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.The sell-off in recent weeks has been driven by the repricing of monetary easing expectations, but the strategic over duration stance remains comfortable, particularly in the medium term.This podcast is sourced from an online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only.

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?</li><li>Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.</li><li>This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.</li></ul>

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to smithereens, but what is the major surprise this year?Back in mid-December, between 5-7% of respondents in the widely renowned fund manager betted on higher interest rates and/or inflation in 2024.This is the kind of consensus that only arises once we are leaning towards the mid-to-late innings of the recession, but the problem is that we are probably not even in a recession (in the US) yet.

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

<ul>
<li>Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.</li>
<li>I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.</li>
<li>The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.</li>
</ul>


Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen.
I guess it is somewhat telling for my lack of enthusiasm around the event that I am sitting here spitting out research instead of watching the Crowning.
The US CPI report printed a tad hotter than expected last week, but smack dab at our expectations of a 3.9% YoY level in core terms.


Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

<ul><li>Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for next Wednesday.</li><li>December inflation is typically fairly hot in core terms in the UK as especially services increase ahead of the holiday season.</li><li>Services increased &gt;0.8% MoM in December 2022, making it “easy” to deliver Services disinflation on a yearly basis in December 2023.</li></ul>

Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for next Wednesday.December inflation is typically fairly hot in core terms in the UK as especially services increase ahead of the holiday season.Services increased &gt;0.8% MoM in December 2022, making it “easy” to deliver Services disinflation on a yearly basis in December 2023.

UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

<ul><li>We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.</li><li>We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.</li><li>Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.</li></ul>

We’ll start today’s 5 things with a look at the central bank outlook for in 2024, then we’ll address the troubles for OPEC.We move over to talk about China and afterwards Ukraine for some geopolitics.Finally, we’ll end this year’s last 5 things with a crypto outlook.

United Kingdom

The British Pound Sterling is the official currency of The United Kingdom. 

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GBP (GBPUSD CURNCY)

Global Rates: January ECB Meeting and Euro Rate Markets

The ECB is expected to remain on hold at the upcoming meeting, with the focus on their updated views on growth, inflation, and any forward guidance.

At Any Rate

Steno Signals #83 – A striking divergence between EUR and USD money trends

Welcome to our flagship editorial!It is about this time of the year when we conclude that all year-ahead outlooks have already been blown to...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #82 – Inflation strikes back and no one is prepared for it

Happy Sunday and welcome to our flagship editorial on the Coronation day of King Frederik in Copenhagen. I guess it is somewhat telling for my...

Steno Research

UK CPI Watch: Another milder than usual report

Greetings from Europe! We had the US CPI report smack dab at our forecast yesterday again and based on public demand here is our UK preview for...

Steno Research

Five Things We Watch For In 2024

The thing to watch is probably employment numbers and once the labor markets start turning bad, expect CBs to cut in a hurry (especially if it is...

Steno Research

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