'Quantamental' Japan Specialist, LightStream Research

Campbell Gunn

'Quantamental' Japan Specialist

ja research

ja research is an independent research platform focused exclusively on Japanese equities. Leveraging data and graphic analysis provided by Japan Analytics, we provide insights on small and medium-sized companies that have been ignored by the sell-side as well as challenging conventional wisdom on larger companies. We also offer analyst and corporate access, the latter with translation if required. 

Quantitative Analysis

- MARKET COMPOSITE -<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/882/original/2019-02-24_11-07-12.png?1550974089" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79882"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>ALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above the Christmas Day low. The 'market value'-based percentage above moving averages almost reached a new three-month on Thursday; the stock count version is lagging as usual.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/886/original/2019-02-24_11-32-45.png?1550975583" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79886"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>STILL SOME UPSIDE - Using the three-month rate of change in this indicator, we are a few weeks away from generating a short-term sell signal, the last such trigger having occurred on 25th October. <hr>- SECTORS - <figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/887/original/2019-02-24_11-45-38.png?1550976349" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79887"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.</div>SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Transporation and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants and Healthcare replacing Media and Telecommunications. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction and Retail replacing Chemicals and Other Materials. <hr>- COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. <div class="content-highlight">
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/26181" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26181:1">PKSHA Technology (3993 JP)</a> is currently the most extreme large capitalisation positive outlier and an excellent example of a -100 to 100 'roundtrip' in under two months. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/24540" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24540:1">SanBio (4592 JP)</a> is, again, the most extreme negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list and is another 'round-tripper'. We also add the chart for 'cockroach' stock <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8244" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8244:1">Leopalace21 (8848 JP)</a> which no longer qualifies for inclusion in our tables, having lost 60% of its value in the last two weeks and 79% in less than a year.
</div><div class="content-caption">
<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/890/original/2019-02-24_12-58-23.png?1550980729" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79890"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/891/original/2019-02-24_12-59-54.png?1550980806" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79891"></figure><figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/079/892/original/2019-02-24_13-12-58.png?1550981589" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="79892"></figure>Source: Japan Analytics
</div>

- MARKET COMPOSITE -Source: Japan AnalyticsALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above the Christmas Day low. The 'market value'-based percentage above moving averages almost reached a new three-month on Thursday; the stock count version is lagging as usual.Source: Japan AnalyticsSTILL SOME UPSIDE - Using the three-month rate of change in this indicator, we are a few weeks away from generating a short-term sell signal, the last such trigger having occurred on 25th October. - SECTORS - 
LEGEND: The 'sparklines' show the three-year trend in the weighted percentage above moving average relative to the Market Composite and the 'STDev' column is a measure of the variability of that relative measure. The table also provides averages for the breaks above and breaks below and the positive and negative crossovers.SECTOR BREAKDOWN - The top six sectors remain domestic and defensive. REITs, Information Technology, Transporation and Utilities continue from our previous review with Restaurants and Healthcare replacing Media and Telecommunications. Equally predictable is the bottom half-dozen - Banks, Non-Bank Finance, Autos, and Metals remain from two weeks ago, with Construction and Retail replacing Chemicals and Other Materials. - COMPANIES -COMPANY MOVING AVERAGE OUTLIERS - As with the Market Composite and Sectors, the Moving Average Outlier indicator uses a weighted sum of each company's share price relative to its 5-day, 20-day, 60-day, 120-day and 240-day moving averages. 'Extreme' values are weighted sums greater than 100% and less than -100%. We would caution that this indicator is best used for timing shorter-term reversals and, in many cases, higher highs and lower lows will be seen. 
In the DETAIL section below, we highlight the current top and bottom twenty-five large capitalisation outliers, as well as those companies that have seen the most significant positive and negative changes in their outlier percentage in the last two weeks and provide short comments on companies of particular note.
PKSHA Technology (3993 JP) is currently the most extreme large capitalisation positive outlier and an excellent example of a -100 to 100 'roundtrip' in under two months. SanBio (4592 JP) is, again, the most extreme negative outlier, having topped the 13th January positive outlier list and is another 'round-tripper'. We also add the chart for 'cockroach' stock Leopalace21 (8848 JP) which no longer qualifies for inclusion in our tables, having lost 60% of its value in the last two weeks and 79% in less than a year.

Source: Japan Analytics


🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

Doing bespoke work since 2002....., Custom Products Group

Patrick Hansen

Doing bespoke work since 2002.....

Custom Products Group

Custom Products was started 14 years ago at Lehman Brothers by current co-founder Patrick Hansen, CFA. After 3 years at Lehman, Patrick moved the team to Macquarie Securities where Simon Rigney (co-founder) joined. 3 years ago we took Custom Products independent. 

Our core strength can be summed up three words. 1- Customization - we have very little off the shelf products and most work is done on a one on one bespoke basis. 2- Speed - We pride ourselves in our ability to get requests back to the client very quickly. 3- Confidentiality - We do not redistribute. There is no grace period where we wait a week and then mass blast. Any request stops with that client.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did poorly and really the only investment styles/factors that did well were large-cap and names with a high percent of retail investors.  

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS &amp; PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market composite over the last three months and provides a quick snapshot of current market trends.  In this insight, we have added the top and bottom Peer Groups measured by their three-month basis point change in weight in the market composite.<hr>SECTORS<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/054/090/original/2018-06-03_11-45-50.png?1527993978" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="54090"></figure><div class="content-caption">Source: Japan Analytics</div>DOMESTIC SECTORS OUT-PERFORM - Domestic sectors continue to out-perform. The only…

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS &amp; PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market composite over the last three months and provides a quick snapshot of current market trends.  In this insight, we have added the top and bottom Peer Groups measured by their three-month basis point change in weight in the market composite.SECTORSSource: Japan AnalyticsDOMESTIC SECTORS OUT-PERFORM - Domestic sectors continue to out-perform. The only…

Japan: Sectors/Peer Groups 3M🔺Too Early to Bottom-Fish Cyclicals •Time to Trim Personal Products

Japan/Asia Long-Short, LightStream Research

Mio Kato

Japan/Asia Long-Short

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

Mitsui Mining & Smelting Co / Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/15998" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15998:1">Mining &amp; Smelting Co (5706 JP)</a> has been the best performer among the smelters since the start of 2017, up 64.5% as its engineering segment delivered current profit growth of 92% in FY03/18, driven by expanding sales of its Microthin electrolytic copper film. The stock is actually down 31.7% since early January as the company incurred a JPY34.6bn impairment loss on its investment in the Caserones Copper mine in Chile, operated by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/638" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:638:1">JX Holdings Inc (5020 JP)</a>.<div class="content-highlight">Among the Japanese smelters, we favour…</div>

Mining &amp; Smelting Co (5706 JP) has been the best performer among the smelters since the start of 2017, up 64.5% as its engineering segment delivered current profit growth of 92% in FY03/18, driven by expanding sales of its Microthin electrolytic copper film. The stock is actually down 31.7% since early January as the company incurred a JPY34.6bn impairment loss on its investment in the Caserones Copper mine in Chile, operated by JX Holdings Inc (5020 JP).Among the Japanese smelters, we favour…

Mitsui Mining: New Smartphone Clients for Microthin HDI Circuit Boards to Drive Growth

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/563" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:563:1">Sony Corp (6758 JP)</a> with a 10% increase, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/8416" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8416:1">Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)</a>…

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were announced. We also looked at which names have performed the best relative to TOPIX since they announced numbers.On the positive side, we screened for names where FY1 EPS estimate increased more than 5% since the company announced 1H earnings. Some of the larger names that made the screen were Sony Corp (6758 JP) with a 10% increase, Komatsu Ltd (6301 JP)…

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

Japan

Furukawa Electric Co., Ltd. manufactures wires, cables, and metal products. The Company holds patents in optical fiber coating technology and produces optical fiber cables in the United States.  Furukawa Electric's metal products include aluminum cans, air conditioner parts, and shape memory alloys.

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Furukawa Electric (5801 JP)

🇯🇵 Japan: Moving Average Outliers - PKSHA, SanBio, Goldwin, ZOZO, Drugstores & ASICS

- MARKET COMPOSITE -ALMOST THREE-MONTH HIGH RECOVERY - The bear market rally is now in its second stage, and the market composite is now 14% above...

Campbell Gunn

2018 Was Not the Year for Value or Beta Names in Japan....

We looked back and identified which factors drove the Japanese market in 2018. We found that Value, which is historically strong in Japan, did...

Custom Products Group

Japan: Sectors/Peer Groups 3M🔺Too Early to Bottom-Fish Cyclicals •Time to Trim Personal Products

THREE-MONTH % CHANGE IN SECTORS & PEER GROUPS - This regular insight focuses on the percentage change in each sectors' weight in the market...

Campbell Gunn

Mitsui Mining: New Smartphone Clients for Microthin HDI Circuit Boards to Drive Growth

Mining & Smelting Co (5706 JP) has been the best performer among the smelters since the start of 2017, up 64.5% as its engineering segment...

Mio Kato

Biggest Moves in Consensus and Best Performers After 1H Announcements in Japan....

With 1H Earnings Season basically done, we went back and screened for names with the largest changes in consensus estimates after results were...

Custom Products Group

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