Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/philippines-stock-exchange-psei-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22912:1" rel="noopener">Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX)</a> increases from 15% to 20%.</li>
<li>This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.</li>
<li>The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.</li>
</ul>


From December 2022, the minimum free float requirement to be a part of the Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index (PCOMP INDEX) increases from 15% to 20%.
This could result in three deletions from the index which will result in three stocks being added to the index. Passive trackers selling the deletes will push the stocks lower.
The three current constituents could remain in the index if they sell stock to increase the free float. That would in turn put downward pressure on the stocks.


PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. </li>
<li>The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.</li>
<li>We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.</li>
</ul>


As we had forecast in Sep'24, the S$NEER has depreciated since the Oct'24 policy statement (despite officially unchanged policy). SS$NEER likely to depreciate further, with SGD reaching S$1.39/US$ by end-Mar'25. 
The productivity rebound, bolstered by 10%YoY growth in machinery investment in Q3/24, enabled ULCs to moderate, rising just 0.9%YoY economy-wide (slowest in 4 years), helping contain headline and core inflation.
We expect inflation to remain below 2%YoY in 2025, while real GDP grows 3.2% (above the government's "1 to 3%" growth forecast), driven by investment and productivity growth in H1.


Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

<ul>
<li>Productivity has declined 0.95%YoY on average over the latest 8 quarters, with Singapore's economic growth depending entirely on rather rapid 4.85%YoY average growth in employment. </li>
<li>Jun'24's 6.7%YoY decline in real NODX indicates real GDP growth for Q2CY24 will be revised down to 2.5%YoY (from the 2.9% advance estimate); strong re-exports also suggest manufacturing's declining competitiveness. </li>
<li>Fiscal policy has returned to its contractionary norm, with this year's surplus likely to be over 1% of GDP, reining-in RGDP growth to 2% for 2024 (and 1.3%YoY for H2CY24). </li>
</ul>


Productivity has declined 0.95%YoY on average over the latest 8 quarters, with Singapore's economic growth depending entirely on rather rapid 4.85%YoY average growth in employment. 
Jun'24's 6.7%YoY decline in real NODX indicates real GDP growth for Q2CY24 will be revised down to 2.5%YoY (from the 2.9% advance estimate); strong re-exports also suggest manufacturing's declining competitiveness. 
Fiscal policy has returned to its contractionary norm, with this year's surplus likely to be over 1% of GDP, reining-in RGDP growth to 2% for 2024 (and 1.3%YoY for H2CY24). 


Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms, Mint Finance

Pranay Yadav

Metals, Ores, and Mining Firms

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Singapore's REITs, representing 12% of the equity market, face pressures from rising interest rates and economic downturns, which impact profitability and market performance.</li>
<li>The data center REIT sector is propelled by increasing AI applications, data sovereignty laws, and the growth of cloud services, positioning it for significant expansion.</li>
<li>Digital Core REIT benefits from its presence in key tech hubs and high-performance computing offerings, positioning them to outperform in a tight data center market.</li>
</ul>


Singapore's REITs, representing 12% of the equity market, face pressures from rising interest rates and economic downturns, which impact profitability and market performance.
The data center REIT sector is propelled by increasing AI applications, data sovereignty laws, and the growth of cloud services, positioning it for significant expansion.
Digital Core REIT benefits from its presence in key tech hubs and high-performance computing offerings, positioning them to outperform in a tight data center market.


Gen AI Unleashes Hyper Demand for Data Centers

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

<ul>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore's ST index ("STI") between now and the September 2023 index review.</li>
<li>With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sembcorp-marine-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11:1" rel="noopener">Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP)</a> seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.</li>
<li>Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.</li>
</ul>


In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes for Singapore's ST index ("STI") between now and the September 2023 index review.
With roughly 4 more months left for the base date, Sembcorp Marine (SMM SP) seems to be an ADD but it is close to the border.
Since the ranking system used for this index in based on prices as at a single point in time, the rankings could change significantly and our expectations could change too.


Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

Singapore

The Straits Times Index (STI), maintained & calculated by FTSE, is the most globally-recognised benchmark index and market barometer for Singapore. Dating back to 1966, it tracks the performance of the top 30 largest and most liquid companies listed on the Singapore Exchange. *Ticker changed from FSSTI on 10/9/2015. **Also revamped on January 10, 2008, for prices prior to that see STIOLD Index.

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

FTSE Straits Times Index (STI) (STI INDEX)

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

A methodology change that increases the minimum free float from 15% to 20% could result in 3 changes to the index. The three constituents will need...

Brian Freitas

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Productivity declined 1%YoY (avg) over last 8 quarters, as RGDP depended on 4.9%YoY employment growth. RGDP likely to grow 2% in 2024, reflecting...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Gen AI Unleashes Hyper Demand for Data Centers

Singapore REITs face challenges from rising interest rates and economic downturns, while data center REITs are poised for growth driven by AI,...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

As things stand, there could be one day of volume to buy in Sembcorp Marine and two days of volume to sell in KDCREIT but if share prices fluctuate...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

PCOMP Index Rebalance Preview Feb 23: Updated Methodology to Drive Changes

A methodology change that increases the minimum free float from 15% to 20% could result in 3 changes to the index. The three constituents will need...

Brian Freitas

Singapore: Early to Ease Amid Receding Inflation, Helped by Productivity Rebound

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. ​S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Singapore: Signs of 'Dutch Disease' as Cyclical NODX Slumps Amid Property Surge

Productivity declined 1%YoY (avg) over last 8 quarters, as RGDP depended on 4.9%YoY employment growth. RGDP likely to grow 2% in 2024, reflecting...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Gen AI Unleashes Hyper Demand for Data Centers

​Singapore REITs face challenges from rising interest rates and economic downturns, while data center REITs are poised for growth driven by AI,...

Mint Finance

Quiddity Leaderboard Singapore’s STI Sep 23: KDCREIT Facing Risk of Deletion

As things stand, there could be one day of volume to buy in Sembcorp Marine and two days of volume to sell in KDCREIT but if share prices fluctuate...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Strong productivity growth reduces ULCs & inflation. S$NEER likely to depreciate further, inflation to stay below 2% in 2025, with RGDP growth of...

Singapore REITs face challenges from rising interest rates and economic downturns, while data center REITs are poised for growth driven by AI,...