Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a>  reported its 4Q FY06/2021 and full-year FY06/2021 results on Friday (13th August) which saw full-year revenues growing 48.8% YoY to JPY10.3bn vs JPY6.9bn in FY06/2020 and the operating losses for the year dropped to 22.4% of revenues compared to 37.5% in FY06/2020. The reported revenues were a touch higher than its own guidance while operating losses for the year was slightly higher than what the company forecasted for.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/223/756/original/image_24845961721629011427546.png?1629011428" class="editor-image img-responsive" data-smartkarma-image-id="223756"></figure><div style="text-align: left;" class="content-caption">Source: Company disclosures</div>The fourth quarter FY06/2021 revenue increased 47.0% YoY while operating losses for the quarter was 32.5% of revenue vs 39.6% of revenue in the same quarter a year ago.

freee (4478 JP)  reported its 4Q FY06/2021 and full-year FY06/2021 results on Friday (13th August) which saw full-year revenues growing 48.8% YoY to JPY10.3bn vs JPY6.9bn in FY06/2020 and the operating losses for the year dropped to 22.4% of revenues compared to 37.5% in FY06/2020. The reported revenues were a touch higher than its own guidance while operating losses for the year was slightly higher than what the company forecasted for.Source: Company disclosuresThe fourth quarter FY06/2021 revenue increased 47.0% YoY while operating losses for the quarter was 32.5% of revenue vs 39.6% of revenue in the same quarter a year ago.

Freee: Strong Finish to the Year; Top Line to Expand but Monetisation of New Services Delays Profits

APAC IPOs & Placements

Zhen Zhou, Toh

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a> is looking to raise about US$278m in its global follow-on offering. The company will be using proceeds for advertising and personnel expense, product development, strategic M&amp;A, and pay down borrowings.In this note, we look at the company’s recent Q2 results and share our thoughts on the deal.

Money Forward (3994 JP) is looking to raise about US$278m in its global follow-on offering. The company will be using proceeds for advertising and personnel expense, product development, strategic M&amp;A, and pay down borrowings.In this note, we look at the company’s recent Q2 results and share our thoughts on the deal.

Money Forward Placement - Onward with More Cash

Event-Driven

The Japanese cloud-based SaaS provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>  has announced an international offering of 5m shares on 02nd July 2021. The new share issue will account for approx. 9.4% of the extended share capital (post follow-on offering) of Money Forward (MF) and the company’s shares closed at JPY6,370 per share on the day of the announcement (from JPY6,370 per share at the end of Friday’s close). At the above price, Money Forward will raise about JPY31.85bn (US$291.5m). The offer price will be determined between 05th August to 10th August at a 0-10% discount.

The Japanese cloud-based SaaS provider Money Forward (3994 JP)  has announced an international offering of 5m shares on 02nd July 2021. The new share issue will account for approx. 9.4% of the extended share capital (post follow-on offering) of Money Forward (MF) and the company’s shares closed at JPY6,370 per share on the day of the announcement (from JPY6,370 per share at the end of Friday’s close). At the above price, Money Forward will raise about JPY31.85bn (US$291.5m). The offer price will be determined between 05th August to 10th August at a 0-10% discount. 

Money Forward Follow-On: Burning Cash to Grow Users to Reach Profits; Limited Upside

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

<div><ul>
<li>
Money Forward has announced a New Share Offering to international investors.  
</li>
<li>The company will raise approximately ¥31 billion assuming a 3% discount to today's close. </li>
<li>
The proceeds will be used for customer acquisition/SG&amp;A and M&amp;A. 
</li>
<li>The share offering sets the company up for further rapid expansion over the next 3 years. </li>
</ul></div>



Money Forward has announced a New Share Offering to international investors.  

The company will raise approximately ¥31 billion assuming a 3% discount to today's close. 

The proceeds will be used for customer acquisition/SG&amp;A and M&amp;A. 

The share offering sets the company up for further rapid expansion over the next 3 years. 


Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Pan-Asia Index Flows & Special Situations

Quiddity Advisors

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month, we witnessed the Inclusion Events of cloud-based business accounting software company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/money-forward-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25919:1" rel="noopener">Money Forward (3994 JP)</a>, water treatment technology company <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nomura-micro-science-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11317:1" rel="noopener">Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP)</a>, and printed circuit board manufacturer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/meiko-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20004:1" rel="noopener">Meiko Electronics (6787 JP)</a>. Furthermore, as discussed by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/travis-lundy" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:25" rel="noopener">Travis Lundy</a> in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/july-topix-ffw-rebalancing-trade" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:54275" rel="noopener">July TOPIX FFW Rebalancing Trade</a>, there were quarterly float adjustments for some constituents of the TOPIX Index which opened up a few trading opportunities. Below is a closer look at each of these situations.

In this insight, we take a look at the monthly performance of the trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. During the month, we witnessed the Inclusion Events of cloud-based business accounting software company Money Forward (3994 JP), water treatment technology company Nomura Micro Science (6254 JP), and printed circuit board manufacturer Meiko Electronics (6787 JP). Furthermore, as discussed by Travis Lundy in July TOPIX FFW Rebalancing Trade, there were quarterly float adjustments for some constituents of the TOPIX Index which opened up a few trading opportunities. Below is a closer look at each of these situations. 

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee KK (4478 JP)

Freee: Strong Finish to the Year; Top Line to Expand but Monetisation of New Services Delays Profits

Though Freee could take longer than expected to make profits, we won't be too concerned as growth matrices have remained strong and increased...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward Placement - Onward with More Cash

Money Forward (3994 JP) is looking to raise about US$278m in its global follow-on offering. In this note, we look at the company’s recent Q2...

Zhen Zhou, Toh

Money Forward Follow-On: Burning Cash to Grow Users to Reach Profits; Limited Upside

MF’s stock price is under pressure following its index inclusion and we believe there will be limited upside to MF’s current share price even at a...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Money Forward (3994) | It's a Big Deal

New share offering is aggressive - ¥31b is around three times Annual Recurring Revenue. Still, it is just a 10% share dilution and is well liked by...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX Inclusion Trade Summary: July 2021

In this insight, we discuss the performance of trading opportunities surrounding TOPIX Index Rebalance events. In July, Money Forward, Nomura...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

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