Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Q1 results are better than expected, achieving record-high quarterly growth in SaaS revenue</li>
<li>Growth is driven by Corporate Customer ARR, which rose by 47% YoY</li>
<li>For growth investors, Money Forward is out top pick in Japan</li>
</ul>


Q1 results are better than expected, achieving record-high quarterly growth in SaaS revenue
Growth is driven by Corporate Customer ARR, which rose by 47% YoY
For growth investors, Money Forward is out top pick in Japan


Money Forward (3994) - Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales

Covering IPOs, Healthcare and Technology Stocks

Andrei Zakharov

Algosun Global

<ul>
<li>Sequoia Capital India, one of the key shareholders of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freshworks-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34147:1" rel="noopener">Freshworks (FRSH US)</a> , made notable insider purchases in March. This is the biggest insider buying since IPO in 2021. </li>
<li>According to SEC filings, venture capital firm acquired ~5 million <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freshworks-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34147:1" rel="noopener">Freshworks (FRSH US)</a>  shares at an average price of <strong>$17.38</strong> per share. </li>
<li>We believe that strong insider buying may indicate a bottom in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/freshworks-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34147:1" rel="noopener">Freshworks (FRSH US)</a>  stock after significant multiple compression in the technology software sector. </li>
</ul>


Sequoia Capital India, one of the key shareholders of Freshworks (FRSH US) , made notable insider purchases in March. This is the biggest insider buying since IPO in 2021. 
According to SEC filings, venture capital firm acquired ~5 million Freshworks (FRSH US)  shares at an average price of $17.38 per share. 
We believe that strong insider buying may indicate a bottom in Freshworks (FRSH US)  stock after significant multiple compression in the technology software sector. 


Sequoia Capital India Acquired ~$87 Million Worth Of Freshworks Shares In March

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Nomura Research Institute / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.</li>
<li>This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>


Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research.
This is not the first sale by Nomura and hence, might not come as a complete surprise.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/Freee-kk" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28424:1" rel="noopener">freee (4478 JP)</a> reported 2QFY06/2022 earnings today. Revenue grew 38.5% YoY to JPY3.31bn, marginally below consensus revenue of JPY3.47bn.</li>
<li>Operating losses for the quarter was JPY544m (16.4% of revenues vs 17.8% in 2QFY06/2021) which was well below consensus operating loss of JPY673.1 (19.4% of consensus revenue.</li>
<li>Though revenues fell slightly below consensus, we think 2Q results have eased some of the concerns we had over freee’s acquisition of Ninja Sign and its path to profits.</li>
</ul>



freee (4478 JP) reported 2QFY06/2022 earnings today. Revenue grew 38.5% YoY to JPY3.31bn, marginally below consensus revenue of JPY3.47bn.
Operating losses for the quarter was JPY544m (16.4% of revenues vs 17.8% in 2QFY06/2021) which was well below consensus operating loss of JPY673.1 (19.4% of consensus revenue.
Though revenues fell slightly below consensus, we think 2Q results have eased some of the concerns we had over freee’s acquisition of Ninja Sign and its path to profits.


Freee 2Q: OP Beat Wipes Out Concerns on Mid/Large User Growth and Profitability

<ul>
<li>M3’s shares have dropped 37.3% over the last 12-months to JPY5,774 from JPY9,207 as the company’s earnings growth has started slowing down. </li>
<li>The Medical Platform business was a key beneficiary of pandemic which saw accelerated transformation in pharma marketing. Strong growth of Medical Platform helped offset declines in other businesses during pandemic.</li>
<li>M3’s share price has been on a correction as pandemic drove its valuations to all-time highs. M3’s recent earnings revealed that its earnings growth has started decelerating.</li>
</ul>


M3’s shares have dropped 37.3% over the last 12-months to JPY5,774 from JPY9,207 as the company’s earnings growth has started slowing down. 
The Medical Platform business was a key beneficiary of pandemic which saw accelerated transformation in pharma marketing. Strong growth of Medical Platform helped offset declines in other businesses during pandemic.
M3’s share price has been on a correction as pandemic drove its valuations to all-time highs. M3’s recent earnings revealed that its earnings growth has started decelerating.


M3: Share Price Heading into a Correction and Further 20-25% Downside Likely

Japan

freee K.K. develops software products. The Company produces cloud based accounting softwares, automatic online accounting systems, and other products. freee provides its services throughout Japan.

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Freee KK (4478 JP)

Money Forward (3994) - Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales

Money Forward has one of the largest SaaS/Fintech platforms in Japan and is a key beneficiary of corporate digital transformation in Japan.

Mark Chadwick

Sequoia Capital India Acquired ~$87 Million Worth Of Freshworks Shares In March

We maintain our bullish view on Freshworks and see notable insider buying as a strong interest among key shareholders, including Sequoia Capital India

Andrei Zakharov

Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research. This won't be the first selldown by the parent.

Sumeet Singh

Freee 2Q: OP Beat Wipes Out Concerns on Mid/Large User Growth and Profitability

Freee’s share price started falling as earnings over the last 2-3 quarters concerned investors over its path to profits. 2Q OP beat has eased these...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Money Forward (3994) - Surprisingly Strong SaaS Sales

Money Forward has one of the largest SaaS/Fintech platforms in Japan and is a key beneficiary of corporate digital transformation in Japan.

Mark Chadwick

Sequoia Capital India Acquired ~$87 Million Worth Of Freshworks Shares In March

We maintain our bullish view on Freshworks and see notable insider buying as a strong interest among key shareholders, including Sequoia Capital India

Andrei Zakharov

Nomura Research Placement - Has Sold Before, Deal Might Be More Reflective on the Parent's Results

Nomura Holdings is looking to raise around US$486m via selling 2.5% of Nomura Research. This won't be the first selldown by the parent.

Sumeet Singh

Freee 2Q: OP Beat Wipes Out Concerns on Mid/Large User Growth and Profitability

Freee’s share price started falling as earnings over the last 2-3 quarters concerned investors over its path to profits. 2Q OP beat has eased these...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA

M3: Share Price Heading into a Correction and Further 20-25% Downside Likely

M3’s share price has been on a correction as pandemic drove its valuations to all-time highs. M3's earnings growth has started decelerating our...

Shifara Samsudeen, ACMA, CGMA