IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. </li>
<li>The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.</li>
<li>Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)’s IFA opines that the share buyback privatisation offer of HK$7.80 is fair and reasonable. The vote is on 4 March. 
The key condition is the scheme be approved by at least 75% of disinterested shareholders (rejection by &lt;10% of disinterested shareholders). No disinterested shareholder holds a blocking stake.
Despite disclosing a potential REIT listing, there are no signs of dissent. At the last close, the gross/annualised spread for a 26 March payment was 3.5%/30.2%.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Scheme Buyback a Done Deal with Vote on 4 March

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> announced a Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a chunky 95% premium to undisturbed.</li>
<li>Assuming the Scheme gets up, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and concert parties would hold 100% in Fosun Tourism.</li>
<li>The Scheme Doc is now <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2025/0210/2025021000007.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">out</a>, with a Court Meeting on the 4th March, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA (Altus Capital) says "fair and reasonable".</li>
</ul>


On the 10th December 2024, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) announced a Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a chunky 95% premium to undisturbed.
Assuming the Scheme gets up, Fosun International (656 HK) and concert parties would hold 100% in Fosun Tourism.
The Scheme Doc is now out, with a Court Meeting on the 4th March, and expected settlement on the 26th March. The IFA (Altus Capital) says "fair and reasonable".


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)'s Scheme Buyback Vote On The 4th March

<ul>
<li>Back on the 10th December 2024, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> announced a <a href="https://www1.hkexnews.hk/listedco/listconews/sehk/2024/1210/2024121000882.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rare Scheme buyback</a>, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed. </li>
<li>A successful Scheme would result in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:433:1" rel="noopener">Fosun International (656 HK)</a> and concert parties holding 100% in Fosun Tourism - without having to outlay a cent. </li>
<li>A scrip alternative was afforded IF expressions of interests from 1% of shares out occurred. That didn't happen. Still a clean deal. Scheme Doc dispatch is the 14th Feb.</li>
</ul>


Back on the 10th December 2024, Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) announced a rare Scheme buyback, with a Cancellation Price of $7.80/share (not declared final), a punchy 95% premium to undisturbed. 
A successful Scheme would result in Fosun International (656 HK) and concert parties holding 100% in Fosun Tourism - without having to outlay a cent. 
A scrip alternative was afforded IF expressions of interests from 1% of shares out occurred. That didn't happen. Still a clean deal. Scheme Doc dispatch is the 14th Feb.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): No Love For The Scrip Alternative

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a>'s profit warning suggested a significant deterioration in profitability in 2H24, fading any near-term recovery hope. </li>
<li>With losses enlarged 89-126% YoY in 2H24, it is more difficult to return to its peak and IPO share prices. This makes the buyback proposal even more attractive.</li>
<li>We take the inability to introduce the Potential Share Alternative Option as a lack of confidence by the existing shareholders in Fosun Tourism's medium-term outlook.</li>
</ul>



Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)'s profit warning suggested a significant deterioration in profitability in 2H24, fading any near-term recovery hope. 
With losses enlarged 89-126% YoY in 2H24, it is more difficult to return to its peak and IPO share prices. This makes the buyback proposal even more attractive.
We take the inability to introduce the Potential Share Alternative Option as a lack of confidence by the existing shareholders in Fosun Tourism's medium-term outlook.


Fosun Tourism (1992 HK): Affirming Our Support for the Buyback

<ul>
<li>It is difficult for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/fosun-tourism-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27439:1" rel="noopener">Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)</a> to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.</li>
<li>Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.</li>
<li>Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.</li>
</ul>


It is difficult for Fosun Tourism (1992 HK) to return to its peak and IPO share prices over the next two years. The buyback proposal represents a good exit opportunity.
Net profit is unlikely to go back to FY19 level even in FY26F. The derating of the Chinese equities and Fosun Group, as well as its high gearing, are barriers.
Its PER multiples have already aligned back to the sector average from the extremely depressed level previously. Relative to global names, it is now only at slight discounts.


Hong Kong

Fosun Tourism Group operates as a leisure focused integrated tourism group. The Company provides resorts management, tourism destinations development, and other related services. Fosun Tourism Group offers its services worldwide.

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Fosun Tourism (1992 HK)