Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside</li>
<li>We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI</li>
<li>We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations</li>
</ul>


2023 gameplan remains unchanged; we see limited upside from here for ACWI-US, and we expect a rangebound year of trading on ACWI-US with $93 capping upside and $75-77 capping downside
We also remain overweight Europe/UK, we want to add exposure on pullbacks to China/Hong Kong/EM, and overweight non-U.S. equities (MSCI ACWI ex-US) relative to MSCI ACWI
We highlight buy ideas within Technology, Communications, and Consumer Discretionary. The UK/Europe and Hong Kong/China continue to make up the majority of our buy recommendations


Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/food-life-companies-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24025:1" rel="noopener">Food &amp; Life (3563 JP)</a>, best known for its affordable conveyor belt Sushi restaurant chain Sushiro, is looking to break out after dropping more than 60% in the last year.</li>
<li>This breakout coincides with Sushiro’s overseas growth as the segment revenue and OP grew 27% and 108% QoQ respectively in the previous quarter.</li>
<li>Given its tendency hit the headlines, mostly for the wrong reasons, risks rewards aren’t that great. Multiples have downside potential with Sushiro’s profitability falling towards peers.</li>
</ul>



Food &amp; Life (3563 JP), best known for its affordable conveyor belt Sushi restaurant chain Sushiro, is looking to break out after dropping more than 60% in the last year.
This breakout coincides with Sushiro’s overseas growth as the segment revenue and OP grew 27% and 108% QoQ respectively in the previous quarter.
Given its tendency hit the headlines, mostly for the wrong reasons, risks rewards aren’t that great. Multiples have downside potential with Sushiro’s profitability falling towards peers.


Food & Life: Can't Avoid Headlines For Too Long & Starting to Fall Back Towards The Rest of The Pack

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The restaurant sector was hit hard by Covid with sales down 25% from pre-pandemic levels</li>
<li>Since lifting restrictions in March, the sector has started to recover especially for smaller groups and lunchtime diners</li>
<li>Out of the 100 listed restaurant stocks, we think that Food &amp; Life (Sushiro) could be an interesting recovery play</li>
</ul>


The restaurant sector was hit hard by Covid with sales down 25% from pre-pandemic levels
Since lifting restrictions in March, the sector has started to recover especially for smaller groups and lunchtime diners
Out of the 100 listed restaurant stocks, we think that Food &amp; Life (Sushiro) could be an interesting recovery play


Japan Weekly | Bullish on Restaurant Stocks

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

This insight is meant to be read in conjunction with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/profiles/janaghan-jeyakumar-cfa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="accounts:3173" rel="noopener">Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA</a>'s <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-upweights-big-april-basket-2021-pre-event-is-a-win-now-the-event-leg" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:50084" rel="noopener">TOPIX Upweights: Big April Basket 2021 Pre-Event Is a WIN! Now the Event-Leg!</a> (which is the announced result of the proposed 50-name buy basket introduced in the explanation of an annual but obscure aspect of TOPIX Index calculation rebalancing explained in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/topix-index-upweights-the-big-april-basket-2021" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:49660" rel="noopener">TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021</a>).Suffice it to say, he got 48 out of the 50 names chosen right, and there are a few more trades related to this on the side. That is US$1.1bn to buy. This insight is about all the OTHER names in the TOPIX rebalance for April 2020, including a total of 43 up-weights and 16 down-weights with ~ US$500mm to buy and US$260mm to sell.That means there will be a US$1bn sell on the close of the 28th too. Not huge, but there. The trades to do here are for investors to see if any of these situations warrant use as a liquidity event.

This insight is meant to be read in conjunction with Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA's TOPIX Upweights: Big April Basket 2021 Pre-Event Is a WIN! Now the Event-Leg! (which is the announced result of the proposed 50-name buy basket introduced in the explanation of an annual but obscure aspect of TOPIX Index calculation rebalancing explained in TOPIX Index Upweights: The Big April Basket 2021).Suffice it to say, he got 48 out of the 50 names chosen right, and there are a few more trades related to this on the side. That is US$1.1bn to buy. This insight is about all the OTHER names in the TOPIX rebalance for April 2020, including a total of 43 up-weights and 16 down-weights with ~ US$500mm to buy and US$260mm to sell.That means there will be a US$1bn sell on the close of the 28th too. Not huge, but there. The trades to do here are for investors to see if any of these situations warrant use as a liquidity event. 

TOPIX April-End Rebalance - The OTHER Trades

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

While a more cautious outlook is appropriate, as long as $77 holds (the September lows) we are constructive and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75 and the 200-day MA as last-ditch support. Considering the recent pullback we want to be sticking with areas that have continued to outperform in spite of recent broad market weakness. For that we look to the following leadership Sectors: Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Manufacturing, Materials, and Transportation

Japan

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

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Food & Life Cos (3563 JP)

Major Top on U.S. Dollar; Overweight Non-U.S. And Europe/UK; Buys in Tech, Comm., Discretionary

The $DXY broke below 5-year support at $103, signaling a major top in place. This is bullish for risk assets, and is another sign suggesting the...

Vermilion Research

Food & Life: Can't Avoid Headlines For Too Long & Starting to Fall Back Towards The Rest of The Pack

With the company’s profitability starting to head back towards the profitability level of peers and with a tendency to hit the headlines (not...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Japan Weekly | Bullish on Restaurant Stocks

The restaurant sector was hit hard by Covid. Since lifting restrictions in March, the sector has started to recover. We think that Food & Life...

Mark Chadwick

TOPIX April-End Rebalance - The OTHER Trades

The April TOPIX Rebalance is about $1.5bn one way, with two thirds of that on Liquidity Factor changes, one-third on normal FFW changes. Toshiba,...

Travis Lundy

Cautiously Optimistic on Global Equities

We are constructive on global equities and would be buyers on a pullback. A move below $77 would start to get very concerning, and would leave $75...

Vermilion Research

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