Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..</li>
<li>... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.</li>
<li>Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook on global equities (MSCI ACWI) remains intact with ACWI-US and the S&amp;P 500 firmly trending higher. Our recommendation since mid-October to use any pre-election pullback in..
... the ACWI or the SPX as an opportunity to add exposure continues to pay off, and there is not much left to do except ride the trend higher.
Additionally, we still see a high probability of significant upside going into year-end and the early part of 2025 -- and likely beyond


Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a DOUBLE-capping event for Fast Retailing which on 8% outperformance could become a TRIPLE-capping event. For now, the trade is shaping up to be US$7bn a side.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX Methodology Rejig is an interesting problem set.


Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I <em>still</em> see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.</li>
<li>There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I still see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. It briefly went double, approaching triple, but is now single capping again.
There is still a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. Longer-term, the TOPIX methodology Rejig is an interesting angle. to changes.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.</li>
<li>There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. </li>
<li>There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal was odd. They could have done 3. They did 2. For now, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT for the Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal.
There is also a capping event for Fast Retailing which on mild outperformance could become a double-capping event. 
There is a bit of a tech bent to potential ADDs. Some Consumer Goods stocks need stock splits to get in. The Committee will regret not adding PPIH last time.


Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

<ul>
<li>The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/sep24-nikkei-225-review-results-a-slightly-baffling-2-in-2-out" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:157890" rel="noopener">Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT</a>. </li>
<li>That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. </li>
<li>And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.</li>
</ul>


The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results are out, discussed in Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review Results:  A Slightly Baffling 2 IN, 2 OUT. 
That lets us move to Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal predictions. For the moment, I see 2 IN and 2 OUT, again. 
And at the moment, another Fast Retailing capping exercise looks likely, for roughly US$3bn a side to trade.


Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

Japan

Food & Life Companies Limited operates sushi restaurant chains. The Company operates kaiten sushi stores and restaurants, sushi takeout, sushi bars with snacks, and more. Food & Life Companies serves customers worldwide.

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Food & Life Cos (3563 JP)

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI ACWI and S&P 500; Buy/Stay Long Global Discretionary, Services, Tech

Ride the Trend Higher in MSCI $ACWI and $SPX; We are still bullish as Risk-On Signals Dominate. Ideas to buy/stay long in global Discretionary,...

Vermilion Research

Quiddity Leaderboard Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: 2 IN, 2 OUT, $5.5bn+ Fastie to Sell, $7bn a Side

The March 2025 Nikkei 225 rebal has <8 weeks to go before it is set. ADDs and DELETEs are mostly decided. The bigger question is the capping of...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT; Lots of Movement but the Same Names

The Nikkei 225 is still likely 2 IN 2 OUT for Mar-25. Doing more would require a very large stock split for Shift (3697) or a stretch to push...

Travis Lundy

Quiddity Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Quiddity March 2025 Nikkei 225 Rebal Leaderboard. I see 2 in, 2 out. $3bn a side except if Fast Retailing outperforms N225 by 3%, in which case...

Travis Lundy

Mar25 Nikkei 225 Rebal Predictions: Likely 2 IN, 2 OUT, Again; Minimal Surprise Factor

The Sep24 Nikkei 225 Review suggests Nikkei Index Committee "discretion" hinting at the scale of the next rebalance. The most interesting bit may...

Travis Lundy

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