Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;</li>
<li>However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;</li>
<li>Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.</li>
</ul>


One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;
However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;
Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.


US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First Solar delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly results.</li><li>Driven by supportive industrial and trade policies, compelling market fundamentals, and robust customer demand, First Solar continued investing and expanding in U.S. domestic manufacturing.</li><li>First Solar purchases Evolar AB in the search for next-generation solar cells.</li></ul>

First Solar delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly results.Driven by supportive industrial and trade policies, compelling market fundamentals, and robust customer demand, First Solar continued investing and expanding in U.S. domestic manufacturing.First Solar purchases Evolar AB in the search for next-generation solar cells.

First Solar Inc.: Can The New Bifacial Solar Panel Power The Future? - Major Drivers

<ul><li>First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>With their CadTel technology, vertically integrated manufacturing process, and commitment to Responsible Solar, First Solar could stand out from competitors and maintains long-term competitiveness.</li><li>The recent acquisition of the European perovskite company, Evolar AB was also a part of the expansion strategy.</li></ul>

First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.With their CadTel technology, vertically integrated manufacturing process, and commitment to Responsible Solar, First Solar could stand out from competitors and maintains long-term competitiveness.The recent acquisition of the European perovskite company, Evolar AB was also a part of the expansion strategy.

First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers

United States

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules.  The Company uses a thin film semiconductor technology to manufacture electricity-producing solar modules.

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First Solar Inc (FSLR US)

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

US solar PV capacity in planning more than doubled in the past year, but the addition was mainly in modules. There is a meaningful improvement in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

First Solar Inc.: Can The New Bifacial Solar Panel Power The Future? - Major Drivers

First Solar delivered an all-around beat in the most recent quarterly results. Driven by supportive industrial and trade policies, compelling...

Baptista Research

First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers

First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations...

Baptista Research

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