Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.</li><li>As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.</li><li>We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.</li></ul>

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket.As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of both baskets and explain the rationale behind each.We are updating the baskets regularly based on the political proposals of the two candidates.

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;</li>
<li>However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;</li>
<li>Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.</li>
</ul>


One year after we started tracking solar investment in US, the planned capacity almost doubled to 123GW, comparing to addition of 32GW of capacity added in 2023;
However, there is a lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon capacity in planning. Only 7GW of ingot capacity is planned, vs. cell capacity rose from 8% of total to 43%;
Chinese participation declined only slightly from 31% to 28%. Lack of wafer, ingot and polysilicon integration means cost of US production stays high. But overcapacity still restrains up stream profitability.


US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022</li>
<li>Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.</li>
<li>Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight</li>
</ul>


Our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Few things are more bullish than indexes (SPX, NDX) breaking out to all-time highs following a major correction we had in 2022
Last week (5/21/24) we discussed how it is a very bullish sign that there have been three upside gaps in May on the S&amp;P 500, with all gaps left unfilled.
Important short-term gap supports we are watching on SPX include 5250-5263, 5127-5142, and 5073-5101; so far 5250-5263 support has held. Also downgrading Industrials (XLI) to market weight


Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

China/Asia TMT

Shawn Yang

<ul>
<li>C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. </li>
<li>We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;</li>
<li>Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.</li>
</ul>


C1H23 solar PV and wind power capacity addition grew 154% and 72% YoY in China, significantly above 2022 growth. With the real estate fallout, renewable capex will likely stay robust. 
We view hydrogen being constrained by its end use in the near future. Incremental renewable capex will still go to solar and wind;
Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus. The more should be the better.


[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.</li><li>With their CadTel technology, vertically integrated manufacturing process, and commitment to Responsible Solar, First Solar could stand out from competitors and maintains long-term competitiveness.</li><li>The recent acquisition of the European perovskite company, Evolar AB was also a part of the expansion strategy.</li></ul>

First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations of Wall Street.With their CadTel technology, vertically integrated manufacturing process, and commitment to Responsible Solar, First Solar could stand out from competitors and maintains long-term competitiveness.The recent acquisition of the European perovskite company, Evolar AB was also a part of the expansion strategy.

First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

Skyworks Solutions, Inc., a wireless semiconductor company, designs and manufactures radio frequency and complete semiconductor system solutions for mobile communications applications.  The Company provides front-end modules, radio frequency subsystems, and system solutions to wireless handset and infrastructure customers worldwide.

Onto Innovation Inc. provides process control solutions and inspection systems. The Company offers solutions which primarily used in the fabrication of semiconductors and other solid-state devices, as well as industrial and scientific applications. Onto Innovation serves customers in the United States.

Amkor Technology, Inc. provides semiconductor packaging and test services.  The Company offers deep submicron wafer fabrication, wafer probe testing, integrated circuit packaging assembly and design, final testing, reliability testing, burn-in, and electrical characterization.

Qorvo Inc, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a variety of high performance analog and mixed signal integrated circuits for the communications markets. The Company's products are used for wireless communications applications such as cellular and PCS, cordless telephony, wireless LANs, industrial radios, wireless security and remote meter reading.

Entegris Inc. provides materials management products and services to the microelectronics industry on a worldwide basis.  The Company provides products such as wafer shippers, wafer transport and process carriers, pods, and work-in-process boxes.  Entegris also provides chemical delivery products such as valves, fittings, tubing, pipe, and containers.

Teradyne, Inc. designs, manufactures, sells, and supports semiconductor test products and services on a world wide basis. The Company's test equipment products and services include: semiconductor test systems, military/aerospace test instrumentation and systems, circuit-board test and inspection systems and automotive diagnostic and test systems.

Axcelis Technologies, Inc. manufactures components for the semiconductor industry. The Company designs, manufactures and services ion implantation, dry strip, thermal processing and curing equipment used in the fabrication of semiconductor chips. Axcelis Technologies sells their products to semiconductor chip manufacturers worldwide.

MA-COM Technology Solutions Holdings Inc. provides high performance analog semiconductor solutions. The Company supplies semiconductors, active and passive components, and sub-assemblies for use in radio frequency, microwave, and millimeter wave applications. MA-COM Technology Solutions serves customers throughout the United States.

Monolithic Power Systems Inc specializes in high-performance, integrated power solutions. The Company provides small, highly energy efficient, easy-to-use power solutions for systems found in industrial applications, telecom infrastructures, cloud computing, automotive, and consumer applications.

ASE Technology Holding Co., Ltd. offers assembly and testing services. The Company provides outsourced assembly, semiconductor testing, semiconductor packaging, and other related services. ASE Technology Holding operates in Taiwan.

Lasertec Corporation develops, designs, manufactures and markets photomask inspection systems to make semiconductor devices, confocal scanning laser microscopes and liquid crystal display (LCD) inspection systems.

United Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs) and related electronic products.  The Company's main products are consumer electronic ICs, memory ICs, personal computer peripheral ICs, and communication ICs.

Novatek Microelectronics Corporation designs, manufactures, and markets integrated circuits (ICs).  The Company's products are used in telecommunication, computer peripherals, and LCD (liquid crystal display) drivers.

LONGi Green Energy Technology Co., Ltd. develops, manufactures and sells silicon rods and silicon wafers. The Company's main products include 6 inch, 6.5 inch and 8 inch monocrystalline silicon rods and wafers.

LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012 CH)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation operates a semiconductor foundry. The Company provides integrated circuit foundry and technology services including the testing, development, design, manufacturing, packaging, and sale of integrated circuits. Semiconductor Manufacturing International offers its products and services around the world.

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC) (981 HK)

Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp (SMIC)

Hanmi Semiconductor Co., Ltd. manufactures and develops semiconductor equipment. The Company's products include auto molding system, sawing & placement system, campress trim/form/singulation system, and pick & place system.

DISCO CORPORATION manufactures abrasive and precision industrial machinery for cutting and grinding purposes.  The Company's products are applied in the semiconductor, electronics, and construction industries to produce consumer goods such as personal computers, digital cameras, video game systems, and Digital Video Disc (DVD) players.

Renesas Electronics Corporation researches, develops, designs and manufactures electronic components such as semiconductors and integrated devices.

ADVANTEST CORPORATION produces semiconductor testing devices and electronic measuring instruments.  The Company's products include large-scale integration (LSI) test systems, memory test systems, dynamic test handlers, network analyzers, electronic meters, optical testing devices, and signal sources.

First Solar, Inc. designs and manufactures solar modules.  The Company uses a thin film semiconductor technology to manufacture electricity-producing solar modules.

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First Solar Inc (FSLR US)

Equity Watch: The Trump versus Biden Basket

We’ve received loads of feedback from our clients regarding our Trump versus Biden basket. As a result, we will provide a detailed breakdown of...

Steno Research

US Battery and Solar Investments, One Year After, Part II

US solar PV capacity in planning more than doubled in the past year, but the addition was mainly in modules. There is a meaningful improvement in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Downgrading Manufacturing (XLI) To Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth; 5250-5263 SPX Holding

Downgrading Manufacturing $XLI to Market Weight; Shift to Overweight Growth $IWF; Three May $SPX Upside Gaps Unfilled = Bullish; Expect supports at...

Vermilion Research

[Blue Lotus Sector Update]: Is There a Good Capacity War from China?

Capacity addition is a long-term problem. But we don’t think overcapacity is an issue now. Capacity investment in upgrading technology is a plus....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

First Solar Inc.: The Evolar AB Acquisition May Be Small But Is Key For Future Growth – Major Drivers

First Solar had a very disappointing result in the last quarter as it failed to meet the revenue expectations as well as the earnings expectations...

Baptista Research

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