Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets, JapanConsuming

Michael Causton

Expert on Japan Retail and Consumer Markets

Real Insight on Japanese Consumer Markets

JapanConsuming

JapanConsuming is a specialist research firm producing intelligence on Japanese retail and consumer markets. Founded in 2000, JapanConsuming has become the leading provider of insights on Japanese retailers and consumer trends to retailers, brands, government agencies and investors. As well as a highly regarded monthly report on the market, JapanConsuming produces in-depth reports on retail sectors, seminars on key trends and telephone consulting to investors on trends and retailers.

JapanConsuming was founded by Michael Causton and Roy Larke. 

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.</li>
<li>The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.</li>
<li>This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.</li>
</ul>


Results for FY2022-23 provide a snapshot of winners and losers in Japan's retail sector.
The data shows a big improvement in performance for retailers with sales of ¥250 billion or more and the outlook is positive for most, particularly for profits.
This also means that market concentration is intensifying, particularly in sectors like drugstores but also now in supermarkets. We highlight the winners in each sector.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The 2023 Version of <strong>JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What?</strong> where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. </li>
<li>Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Advantest is up 100% in 3mos. Existing passive ownership and new passive buying were crucial to that performance.</li>
<li>Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks in Japan. </li>
</ul>


The 2023 Version of JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What? where we break down the major (and minor) passive tracking indices and which category of investor owns how much of each. 
Even if you do not "play" index changes, understanding impact is important. Advantest is up 100% in 3mos. Existing passive ownership and new passive buying were crucial to that performance.
Understanding the nature of the ownership and flows is crucial to understanding how to trade certain stocks in Japan. 


Co-Founder & CEO, Newmark Risk

Nicholas Pezolano

Co-Founder & CEO

Option analytics for institutional investors

Newmark Risk

Fin-tech company focused on providing option derived analytics for institutional investors.

We handle the complexity of options data so you don't have to.

- Data and Analytics available all in one place so you can focus on Strategy Development
- Custom Solutions for your data and/or portfolio needs
- Advisory services to lend our expertise

Knowledge is something that was meant to be shared and we provide insights to our clients and to the community via posting about our research findings.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.</li>
<li>Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.</li>
<li>A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors</li>
</ul>


Box Spreads have become an increasingly popular strategy utilized in the US markets, so we explore this strategy in Japan.
Opportunities exist for traders to lock in JPY margin rates lower than their brokerage.
A historical analysis of the strategy showcases the favorable opportunities for investors


President, Vision Research

Robert C Prather Jr

President

Vision Research

Vision Research was formed in 2004 with the vision of generating the best possible fundamental analysis and investment research for smid cap US equities. In 2008, we broadened our coverage to include mid/large cap US stocks.  After researching a  few ideas outside the US each year for a number of years, we launched a dedicated non-US equity product at the end of 2015.  This was followed by the introduction of a product focused on IPOs in mid-2017.

Fundamental Insight

Equity Bottom-Up

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies</li>
<li>Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive</li>
<li>Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile</li>
</ul>


Key customers &amp; their retail partners battling excess inventory, waning consumer demand, and market share losses in certain geographies
Plans for capacity expansion amid demand uncertainties and alt data and macro picture may prove aggressive and along with risks of reshoring/nearshoring &amp; friend-shoring may prove margin dilutive
Consensus expectations for 2H23 and 2024 appear overly optimistic and valuation is not cheap given the growth profile


Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

<ul>
<li>This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. </li>
<li>Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.</li>
<li>If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.</li>
</ul>


This past week saw dramatic moves in Japanese stock markets. TOPIX +3.1% N225 +4.8% - up the 6th week in a row - closing at their highest in 33 years. 
Flows were positive the week before, and I expect we'll see next week they were positive this past week. But most striking was the interplay between Nikkei 225 and TOPIX.
If foreign inflows increase, Nikkei is likely to outperform TOPIX both because of its existence and previous use, and its construction. And that means watching one's trades, shorts, and executions.


Japan

Nitori Holdings Co., Ltd., is based in Hokkaido and operates a furniture retail chain.  The Company sells living room furniture, storage furniture, dining furniture, office furniture, beds, and interior goods.  Nitori Holdings also sells original brand merchandise and imported merchandise.

ABC-MART, INC. plans, develops, wholesales, and retails shoes.  The Company also plans and develops brand name shoes such as VANS and G.T. HAWKINS.  ABC-Mart imports and wholesales shoes, apparel, bags, and sundries as well.

HIKARI TSUSHIN, INC. is a mobile telecommunication service subscription agency. The Company also operates telecommunication services stores, HIT SHOP, which sell cellular telephones, and related goods.  Hikari Tsushin also sells office automation equipment and insurance.

Sanrio Company, Ltd. manufactures and sells character goods including gift merchandise, greeting cards, and stationery products.  The Company also produces books, magazines, and movies, and though its subsidiary, operates restaurants and amusement parks.

USS CO LTD manages used car auction facilities throughout  Japan. The Company al so conducts auto auctions through satellites, and provides used car information through internet.

SHIMAMURA CO., Ltd. operates chain stores selling mainly clothing for men, women, children, and also bedding and furnishing goods.  The Company has stores in mainly suburb areas throughout Japan.

YAMADA DENKI CO., LTD. operates consumer electronic mass sales stores throughout Japan.  The Company sells home appliances, audio & visual systems, office automation equipment, telecommunication equipment, software, and computers. The Company also provides repair services for its merchandises.

WORKMAN CO., LTD. designs, produces, and retails work uniforms and related goods including work gloves and safety shoes.  The Company operates its own stores and franchise stores located throughout eastern Japan.

BIC CAMERA INC. operates electronic retail stores throughout Japan focusing on the Tokyo metropolitan area.  The Company sells audio and video equipments, electrical home appliances and telecommunication equipments.  Bic Camera also runs an Internet shopping site.

K'S HOLDINGS CORPORATION, based in Ibaraki prefecture, operates large scale electrical appliance store chain.  Franchise stores operates throughout Japan. The Company sells a variety of electrical appliances including refrigerators, washing machines, cooking appliances, computers, audio & visual systems, and air conditioners.

Dick's Sporting Goods, Inc. operates as a sporting goods retailer that manages stores primarily in the eastern and central United States. The Company owns stores that offers a broad selection of brand name sporting goods equipment, apparel, and footwear.

Burlington Stores, Inc. owns and operates clothing retail stores. The Company offers, through its stores and internet sites, men's, women's, and children's apparel. Burlington Holding operates within the United States and Puerto Rico.

Tractor Supply Company operates a retail farm store chain in the United States. The Company provides farm maintenance products, animal products, general maintenance products, lawn and garden products, light truck equipment, work clothing, and other products.  Customers include hobby, part-time, and full-time farmers and ranchers, as well as rural customers, contractors, and tradesman.

Lowe's Companies, Inc. is a home improvement retailer that distributes building materials and supplies through stores in the United States. The Company offers a complete line of products and services for home decorating, maintenance, repair, remodeling, and property maintenance.

Murphy USA Inc. produces and distributes petroleum products. The Company engages in refining, marketing, and transportation of oil and gas products. Murphy USA provides products and services worldwide.

O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. retails and supplies automotive aftermarket parts, tools, supplies, equipment, and accessories.  The Company sells its products to do-it-yourself customers and professional mechanics or service technicians. O'Reilly operates stores throughout the United States.

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates a chain of beauty stores. The Company offers cosmetics, fragrance, skin, and hair care products, as well as salon services. Ulta Beauty serves customers throughout the United States.

Williams-Sonoma, Inc. retails cooking and serving equipment, home furnishings, and home accessories through retail stores, mail order catalogs and e-commerce. The Company offers its merchandise under the Williams-Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Teen, and West Elm.

Hotai Motor Company Ltd. operates as an automobile dealership. The Company sells and services new and used cars and trucks in Taiwan.

GameStop Corporation operates specialty electronic game and PC entertainment software stores throughout the United States, Australia, Canada and Europe. The Company stores sell new and used video game hardware, video game software and accessories, as well as PC entertainment software, and related accessories and other merchandise.

FAST RETAILING CO., LTD. operates a chain of clothing stores, UNIQLO, throughout Japan and in other markets overseas including UK, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, US, France, Singapore and Russia.  The Company designs, manufactures, and retails its own line of casual clothing.

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Fast Retailing (9983 JP)

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Michael Causton

JAPAN PASSIVE: Who Owns What 2023?

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Travis Lundy

EQD | Are Box Spreads Viable in Japan?

Box spreads may be an effective strategy for Japanese investors to lock in margin rates lower than their prime brokerage with minimal risk and...

Nicholas Pezolano

Shenzhou (2313 HK): Contract Mfr for Leading Sportswear Brands Facing Challenging Demand Outlook.

Consensus estimates do not account for customer, retailer, Asian market share shift, macro, alt data and geopolitical risks.

Robert C Prather Jr

Nikkei 225 Vs TOPIX Dynamics

Last week, Japan's indices hit new 33yr highs. "Japan is back" seems to be a new narrative, and that is creating new inflows. Some of that has...

Travis Lundy

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