Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Capital Markets

Doosan Robotics  / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Our base case valuation per share of Doosan Robotics is 42,826 won, which is 65% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. </li>
<li>We estimate Doosan Robotics to generate sales of 61.7 billion won (up 37.2% YoY) in 2023 and 97.7 billion won (up 58.2% YoY) in 2024. </li>
<li>If Doosan Robotics is compared to Fanuc, Doosan Robotics' valuation would be much lower. However, one could argue that Doosan Robotics should have higher valuation than Rainbow Robotics.</li>
</ul>


Our base case valuation per share of Doosan Robotics is 42,826 won, which is 65% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range. 
We estimate Doosan Robotics to generate sales of 61.7 billion won (up 37.2% YoY) in 2023 and 97.7 billion won (up 58.2% YoY) in 2024. 
If Doosan Robotics is compared to Fanuc, Doosan Robotics' valuation would be much lower. However, one could argue that Doosan Robotics should have higher valuation than Rainbow Robotics.


<ul>
<li>Doosan Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in September. The expected IPO price range is 21,000 won to 26,000 won.</li>
<li>The company estimates its sales to surge from 67 billion won in 2023 to 766.3 billion won in 2027, representing 83.9% CAGR from 2023 to 2027.</li>
<li>One of the major reasons why local investors will have a positive view of Doosan Robotics is due to Samsung's investment in Rainbow Robotics whose share price increased 232% YTD. </li>
</ul>


Doosan Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in September. The expected IPO price range is 21,000 won to 26,000 won.
The company estimates its sales to surge from 67 billion won in 2023 to 766.3 billion won in 2027, representing 83.9% CAGR from 2023 to 2027.
One of the major reasons why local investors will have a positive view of Doosan Robotics is due to Samsung's investment in Rainbow Robotics whose share price increased 232% YTD. 


Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; </li>
<li>JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing</li>
<li>NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.</li>
</ul>


OVERSEAS. PCE Deflator 3.0%YoY; 0.2%MoM calms (re)inflation fears; Yields fall,  Equities rebound as Goldilocks View of Economy/Markets intact; SPX 2Q earnings not so bad; China further moves to bolster economy; 
JAPAN. NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks - 0.5% JGB10Y  yield now a reference, not a ceiling; To buy bonds at 1%.; Next inflation forecast 1.9%=continued easing
NUGGET. Nidec-Renesas Partnership potentially a big deal for both companies. Successful execution will lead to sales and profit growth for both companies in their respective areas.


Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Fanuc reported 1Q3/24 operating profit of ¥32.6 billion (-26.3% YoY), missing street expectations at around ¥43 billion</li>
<li>Fanuc cut full year guidance for operating profit to ¥118 billion (-38% YoY), way below street estimates of ¥176 billion</li>
<li>Turning bearish. We think the stock will essentially tread water given lack of catalysts over next 6-9 months and valuations</li>
</ul>


Fanuc reported 1Q3/24 operating profit of ¥32.6 billion (-26.3% YoY), missing street expectations at around ¥43 billion
Fanuc cut full year guidance for operating profit to ¥118 billion (-38% YoY), way below street estimates of ¥176 billion
Turning bearish. We think the stock will essentially tread water given lack of catalysts over next 6-9 months and valuations


Fanuc (6954) | Earnings Miss; Guidance Slashed

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.</li>
<li>We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.</li>
</ul>


Global equities (MSCI ACWI) have marginally broken above the top-end of our anticipated 2023 trading range of $93 on ACWI-US.
In our 4/18/23 Int’l MacroVision we acknowledged that a break above $93 and a reach to $96-$97 was also possible – and so far, this is what has played out.
We will continue to watch the $93 level for a potential false breakout, but as long as the ACWI-US is above $90.50, we cannot be bearish.


MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

Japan

FANUC CORPORATION manufactures factory automation (FA) systems and equipments, and robots. The Company's products include computerized numerically-controlled (CNC) equipment, servo motors, laser systems, industrial robots, wire-cut electric discharge machines, and CNC drill.  Fanuc participates in a joint venture with General Electric in the FA field.

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Fanuc Corp Unsp Adr (FANUY US)

Doosan Robotics IPO Valuation Analysis

Our base case valuation per share of Doosan Robotics is 42,826 won, which is 65% higher than the high end of the IPO valuation range.

Douglas Kim

Doosan Robotics IPO Preview

Doosan Robotics is getting ready to complete its IPO in Korea in September.The expected IPO price range is 21,000 won to 26,000 won.

Douglas Kim

Ohayo Japan|Benign PCE Deflator Spurs Equities; BOJ Easing to Continue: Nidec+Renasas = A Big Deal

US Equities rebound as confidence grows in Golilocks trade; NKY Futures 1% vs Cash; USDJPY 141.2; BOJ Tweaks -To buy 10 year bonds at 1%.; Next...

Mark Chadwick

Fanuc (6954) | Earnings Miss; Guidance Slashed

Our long-term investment thesis sees Fanuc as a key beneficiary of the de-globalization of supply chains and EV capex. However, we need to wait for...

Mark Chadwick

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece

MSCI EM Improving; Buys in Value & Large-Cap EM $TSM #Samsung $BABA; Remain Overweight Japan, India, Taiwan, and Greece. $ACWI break above $93 and...

Vermilion Research

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