Quantitative Equity Analyst, DMA

Charlotte van Tiddens, CFA

Quantitative Equity Analyst

Technology-First Company

DMA is a technology-first company that provides an end-to-end SaaS solution to institutional investors. DMA enables regulated entities like asset managers, wealth managers, investment managers and financial advisors to connect their front and back office, break silos and reduce headcount.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).</li>
<li>Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.</li>
<li>In this note we explore the <em><strong>relative performance</strong></em> of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.</li>
</ul>


Short duration US factor strategies outperformed in September as markets came under pressure (value and dividend yield).
Despite keeping rates unchanged on the 20th of September at 5.5% (upper bound), Fed Chair Powell indicated that rates would be kept higher for longer than initially anticipated.
In this note we explore the relative performance of US factor strategies through different interest rate cycles, to inform timing around factor/style rotation.


US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

Oil and Gas, Mint Finance

Suhas Reddy

Oil and Gas

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 08/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, surpassing expectations of a 0.4m barrel increase. Meanwhile, gasoline and distillate stocks unexpectedly declined.
US natural gas inventories rose 42 Bcf for the week ending 08/Nov, exceeding analyst expectations of a 34 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 6.1% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Occidental beat revenue and EPS estimates by 0.7% and 34.8%, respectively led by higher hydrocarbon output. Analysts upgraded their 12-month PTs on Occidental, Chevron, Exxon, and Halliburton.


[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;</li>
<li>A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;</li>
<li>To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.</li>
</ul>


We believe key to Trump's MAGA agenda is to revamp the US growth model of using trade deficit to fund the economy. Trump needs to cut imports without elicit inflation;
A way to cut inflation is to structurally lower the US cost of living. To do so will affect the lives of millions which means income tax cut is necessary;
To lower income tax without adding trade deficit, Trump needs to scale back government spending. Elon Musk, if making good of its US$2tn cuts plan, will help.


If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

<ul>
<li>For the week ending 01/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, contrary to expectations of a 0.3m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stocks also bucked forecasts of a decline.</li>
<li>US natural gas inventories rose 69 Bcf for the week ending 01/Nov, higher than analyst expectations of a 67 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.</li>
<li>Halliburton missed revenue and EPS estimates by 2.2% and 2.7%. While Aramco beat revenue and EPS estimates by 11.2% and 2.2%. Numerous analysts upgraded their 12-month PT for Chevron.</li>
</ul>


For the week ending 01/Nov, US crude inventories rose by 2.1m barrels, contrary to expectations of a 0.3m barrel decrease. Gasoline and distillate stocks also bucked forecasts of a decline.
US natural gas inventories rose 69 Bcf for the week ending 01/Nov, higher than analyst expectations of a 67 Bcf buildup. Inventories are 5.8% above the 5-year seasonal average.
Halliburton missed revenue and EPS estimates by 2.2% and 2.7%. While Aramco beat revenue and EPS estimates by 11.2% and 2.2%. Numerous analysts upgraded their 12-month PT for Chevron.


[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. </li>
<li>Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. </li>
<li>Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. </li>
</ul>


Donald Trump is the first candidate to win non-consecutive terms as President since Grover Cleveland 132 years ago. Winning the popular vote strengthens his mandate, with Senate/House also Republican. 
Trump proposes to cut the corporate tax rate to 15%, make his income tax cuts permanent, de-regulate energy (and end the Ukraine war). Lower oil prices and faster growth likely. 
Lower taxes and regulation, hence lower inflation/rates, would provide a fillip to equities. Conventional energy, banks/PE would win. India, Japan, SKorea, Germany, Russia would be winners, UK/NATO the losers. 


US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

United States

Exxon Mobil Corporation operates petroleum and petrochemicals businesses on a worldwide basis.  The Company's operations include exploration and production of oil and gas, electric power generation, and coal and minerals operations. Exxon Mobil also manufactures and markets fuels, lubricants, and chemicals.

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Exxon Mobil (XOM US)

US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Mint Finance

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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US Factor Strategies: Value and Dividend Yield Outperform in September, Higher for Longer Narrative

US rates and factor strategies: higher for longer likely to drive outperformance of short duration factor strategies, long US value short US growth.

DMA

[ETP 2024/46] WTI Drops on Strong Dollar, Henry Hub Gains on Lower Output and Better Demand Outlook

​US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Mint Finance

If Trump Doesn't Launch Trade War in His First Year, Is There Still a Need to Stimulate?

​Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[ETP 2024/45] WTI Drops on Trump’s Win and Rising Inventories, Henry Hub Gains on Supply Disruptions

​US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Mint Finance

US: Trump Sweep of WH, Senate, House Clears the Way for Growth and Lower Brent

​Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...

Prasenjit K. Basu

US crude inventories rose more than expected, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell; nat-gas stocks also exceeded analyst expectations....

Trump's MAGA agenda hinges on cutting imports and lowering cost of living, which can then fund his campaign on immigration and foreign trade....

US crude and natural gas inventories rose above expectations, while Halliburton missed estimates and Aramco exceeded them. Analysts upgrade target...

Trump's re-election strengthens mandate with Republican control of Senate/House. Proposed tax cuts, deregulation to boost economy/equities and...