Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Event-Driven

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a>, there are 2 inclusions and 4 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nongfu-spring" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28955:1" rel="noopener">Nongfu Spring (9633 HK)</a>, while the exclusions are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/petrochina-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:262:1" rel="noopener">PetroChina (857 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hengan-intl-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29:1" rel="noopener">Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-gas-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Gas (1193 HK)</a>.One-way turnover is estimated at 5.62% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.10bn. The highest impact is on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> at 3.5 days of ADV to sell from passive funds, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-gas-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20525:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Gas (1193 HK)</a> has almost 3 days of ADV to sell.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes, but the changes were largely expected. We had <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/country-garden-services-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27343:1" rel="noopener">Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK)</a> as a lower probability inclusion and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-conch-venture-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19943:1" rel="noopener">China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK)</a> as a lower probability deletion, and there could be a larger impact on these two stocks.The conclusions of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> market consultation are scheduled to be announced on Monday, 1 March. Depending on the increase in number of index constituents and the changes to the index methodology, some of the HSCEI inclusions/ exclusions could be added to/ deleted from the HSI at the June review and could result in additional same way flow on the stocks.

The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) announced the results of its review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes post market close on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March.For the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX), there are 2 inclusions and 4 exclusions. This brings the number of index constituents back down to 50.The inclusions are Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) and Nongfu Spring (9633 HK), while the exclusions are China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK), PetroChina (857 HK), Hengan Intl Group (1044 HK) and China Resources Gas (1193 HK).One-way turnover is estimated at 5.62% and will result in a one-way trade of HK$4.10bn. The highest impact is on China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) at 3.5 days of ADV to sell from passive funds, while China Resources Gas (1193 HK) has almost 3 days of ADV to sell.There are only 10 trading days to implementation of the changes, but the changes were largely expected. We had Country Garden Services Holdings (6098 HK) as a lower probability inclusion and China Conch Venture Holdings (586 HK) as a lower probability deletion, and there could be a larger impact on these two stocks.The conclusions of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) market consultation are scheduled to be announced on Monday, 1 March. Depending on the increase in number of index constituents and the changes to the index methodology, some of the HSCEI inclusions/ exclusions could be added to/ deleted from the HSI at the June review and could result in additional same way flow on the stocks.

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Two In, Four Out Brings Us Back to 50; HSI Consultation Could Increase Flow

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX)</a> as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

On 22 December 2020 post market close, Hang Seng Indexes (HSIL) released the consultation paper on the "Proposal to enhance the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as regards continuing to serve as the most representative and important benchmark of the Hong Kong stock market". Market participants had until 24 January to submit their views to HSIL.HSIL are scheduled to announce the changes to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index (HSI INDEX) as a part of the March review on 26 February. There is a high probability that the conclusions of the market consultation will be announced on the same day.Given some large new listings since then and the price movements on the stocks, we refresh our list of potential inclusions and exclusions assuming that HSIL go up to 65 names or 80 names.In both cases, the turnover is very high in percentage terms and in dollar terms. HSIL will need to implement the changes over 1 year.We continue to believe that the market will probably be fine with increasing the number of constituents to 65, but will likely balk at going up to 80 in one shot.Financials would see the largest decrease in weight, offset by gains in Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Properties, Healthcare, Consumer Staples and Utilities.

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

Hang Seng China Enterprises Index / Event-Driven

As we have said many time before, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> 2021 and 2022 dividend futures are a structural sell due to changes to the index composition that will lower the fair value of the futures.There were 18 inclusions and 17 deletions from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> in 2020 with a shift from higher dividend yield Financials and Energy stocks to lower dividend yield stocks (or zero dividend yield stocks) from the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors.We see this trend continuing in 2021 with quite a few changes front-loaded that will affect the fair value of the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures. More changes at the back end along with potential changes to the index methodology could lower the fair value of the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures too.In this Insight, we lay out the possible changes to the index constituents and to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> methodology that will impact the dividend futures.

As we have said many time before, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) 2021 and 2022 dividend futures are a structural sell due to changes to the index composition that will lower the fair value of the futures.There were 18 inclusions and 17 deletions from the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) in 2020 with a shift from higher dividend yield Financials and Energy stocks to lower dividend yield stocks (or zero dividend yield stocks) from the Consumer Discretionary and Information Technology sectors.We see this trend continuing in 2021 with quite a few changes front-loaded that will affect the fair value of the HSCEI 2021 dividend futures. More changes at the back end along with potential changes to the index methodology could lower the fair value of the HSCEI 2022 dividend futures too.In this Insight, we lay out the possible changes to the index constituents and to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) methodology that will impact the dividend futures.

HSCEI Dividends - Structural Sell; Bank Dividends the Swing Factor

There are a lot of changes expected to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> over the next 6 months.<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/beijing-kuaishou-technology-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29725:1" rel="noopener">Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK)</a> lists on 5 February and we expect the stock to get Fast Entry to the index with the change implemented at the close of trading on 22 February.The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March. We expect 1 inclusion and 3 exclusions at the review.At the current time, we expect 3 changes at the June 2021 review. There are a few stocks that are close adds and deletes and the actual number of changes could be higher.There are a few large IPOs that could take place this year that could get those stocks Fast Entry/ regular entry into the index. The main ones are <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/didi-chuxing-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27467:1" rel="noopener">DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH)</a>, JD Logistics, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bytedance-technology" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27936:1" rel="noopener">ByteDance (1460967D CH)</a>'s Douyin and a possible revival of the shelved <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ant-financial-services-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24240:1" rel="noopener">Ant Group (6688 HK)</a> IPO.Then there is the possibility of some large 'homecoming' listings getting included in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> over the next few reviews. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/baidu-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:179:1" rel="noopener">Baidu (BIDU US)</a> is rumored to have picked banks and is said to plan a listing in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pinduoduo-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27250:1" rel="noopener">Pinduoduo (PDD US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bilibili-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26793:1" rel="noopener">Bilibili Inc (BILI US)</a> as other names on the list.In this Insight, we lay out the potential roadmap of upcoming changes to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX)</a> along with the impact on the stocks.

There are a lot of changes expected to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) over the next 6 months.Kuaishou Technology (1024 HK) lists on 5 February and we expect the stock to get Fast Entry to the index with the change implemented at the close of trading on 22 February.The Hang Seng Indexes Company Limited (HSIL) will announce the results of the March 2021 review of the Hang Seng Family of Indexes on 26 February. The constituent changes will be effective after the close of trading on 12 March. We expect 1 inclusion and 3 exclusions at the review.At the current time, we expect 3 changes at the June 2021 review. There are a few stocks that are close adds and deletes and the actual number of changes could be higher.There are a few large IPOs that could take place this year that could get those stocks Fast Entry/ regular entry into the index. The main ones are DiDi Chuxing (1284375D CH), JD Logistics, ByteDance (1460967D CH)'s Douyin and a possible revival of the shelved Ant Group (6688 HK) IPO.Then there is the possibility of some large 'homecoming' listings getting included in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) over the next few reviews. Baidu (BIDU US) is rumored to have picked banks and is said to plan a listing in Hong Kong in the first half of the year, with Pinduoduo (PDD US) and Bilibili Inc (BILI US) as other names on the list.In this Insight, we lay out the potential roadmap of upcoming changes to the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI INDEX) along with the impact on the stocks.

HSCEI Index Rebalances - The Year of the Ox and of More Change

China and US Equity Analyst

Roger Xie

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul style="list-style-type: disc;">
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> December ADT (Average Daily Turnover) re-accelerated strongly, delivering amazing 86% year-over-year growth in the month. The outperformance is helped by the rising global equity markets and strong IPO listings in Hong Kong. For the year 2020, HKEx ADT has accelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 49%, which is one the best trading volume years recently. In 2020, HKEx stock price rose 68%, outperforming Hang Seng Index down 3%. We believe HKEx momentum will continue in 2021.</li>
<li>We maintain our sanguine view on trading activities and IPO pipeline in Hong Kong market in 2021. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-exchanges-clearing" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:490:1" rel="noopener">HKEX (388 HK)</a> will benefit from this secular trend in several ways: 1) Hong Kong market becomes de facto choice for China new economy companies for IPO and fund raising; 2) HKEx Northbound trading has become an increasing important factor as the gateway to invest in China A-share; 3) MSCI index products will continue to gain market share. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and raise HKEx TP HKD 500. </li>
<li>HKEx announced that Calvin Tai Chi Kin has replaced Charles Li Xiaojia as its new interim Chief Executive, effective from 1st January 2021. Calvin Tai Chi Kin, a financial industry veteran, has been named HKEx' Interim CEO since last September. He will take over Charles Li Xiaojia’s responsibilities and continue his role as Co-President and Chief Operating Officer of HKEx. Calvin brings a wealth of experience of more than thirty-five years to his new position. According to the media, several candidates have been considered by HKEx, but the final decision on HKEx CEO has not been reached. 
</li>
</ul>



HKEX (388 HK) December ADT (Average Daily Turnover) re-accelerated strongly, delivering amazing 86% year-over-year growth in the month. The outperformance is helped by the rising global equity markets and strong IPO listings in Hong Kong. For the year 2020, HKEx ADT has accelerated the year-over-year growth rate to 49%, which is one the best trading volume years recently. In 2020, HKEx stock price rose 68%, outperforming Hang Seng Index down 3%. We believe HKEx momentum will continue in 2021.
We maintain our sanguine view on trading activities and IPO pipeline in Hong Kong market in 2021. HKEX (388 HK) will benefit from this secular trend in several ways: 1) Hong Kong market becomes de facto choice for China new economy companies for IPO and fund raising; 2) HKEx Northbound trading has become an increasing important factor as the gateway to invest in China A-share; 3) MSCI index products will continue to gain market share. We forecast Securities ADT of HK$240bn in FY 21 (Hong Kong and Stock Connect Northbound) and raise HKEx TP HKD 500. 
HKEx announced that Calvin Tai Chi Kin has replaced Charles Li Xiaojia as its new interim Chief Executive, effective from 1st January 2021. Calvin Tai Chi Kin, a financial industry veteran, has been named HKEx' Interim CEO since last September. He will take over Charles Li Xiaojia’s responsibilities and continue his role as Co-President and Chief Operating Officer of HKEx. Calvin brings a wealth of experience of more than thirty-five years to his new position. According to the media, several candidates have been considered by HKEx, but the final decision on HKEx CEO has not been reached. 



HKEx (388.HK): A Blockbuster Year 2020; Becoming Regional Leader in Years Ahead; Raise TP to HK$500

China

Evergrande Property Services Group Limited operates as property management service providers. The Company provides property management services for high-end residential, theme parks, industrial parks, healthcare complexes, and other buildings. Evergrande Property Services Group offers services in China.

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Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)

HSCEI Index Rebalance: Two In, Four Out Brings Us Back to 50; HSI Consultation Could Increase Flow

There are 2 adds and 4 deletes to the HSCEI. Some stocks have decent impact in the 10 days to implementation. There could be additional flow...

Brian Freitas

HSI Market Consultation - Name Changes as We Await the Conclusions

The conclusions of the HSI market consultation could be announced on 26 Feb along with the March review. Given recent large listings and price...

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Dividends - Structural Sell; Bank Dividends the Swing Factor

We see downside in the HSCEI 2021 and 2022 div futures due to changes in the index composition and potential changes in the index methodology....

Brian Freitas

HSCEI Index Rebalances - The Year of the Ox and of More Change

There will be a lot of changes to the HSCEI this year that will impact the sectoral composition and open up trading opportunities on the stocks and...

Brian Freitas

HKEx (388.HK): A Blockbuster Year 2020; Becoming Regional Leader in Years Ahead; Raise TP to HK$500

We maintain our sanguine view on trading activities and IPO pipeline in Hong Kong market in 2021and raise HKEx TP HKD 500.

Roger Xie

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