FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities.

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities. 

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Angela Merkel swept to another strong plurality in the Bundestag, albeit with a smaller share of votes (32.9%) and seats (217 out of 631 according to the latest exit polls) than she was expected to win just a fortnight ago (albeit down only slightly from her peak 34.1% vote share in 2013). Merkel is certain to remain Chancellor of Germany for a fourth consecutive term, which will make her the strongest and longest-lasting leader of Germany since Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor who united…

Angela Merkel swept to another strong plurality in the Bundestag, albeit with a smaller share of votes (32.9%) and seats (217 out of 631 according to the latest exit polls) than she was expected to win just a fortnight ago (albeit down only slightly from her peak 34.1% vote share in 2013). Merkel is certain to remain Chancellor of Germany for a fourth consecutive term, which will make her the strongest and longest-lasting leader of Germany since Otto von Bismarck, the Iron Chancellor who united…

Merkel's Triumph Masks the Longer-Term Challenges from the Empowered Fringes

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation.

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation. 

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week.  However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their recent gains and retain their uptrend.  We see some risk of a correction in EUR from an over-bought condition.  After two weeks of consolidation in AUD/NZD, we see upside risks building on a weaker NZ economic performance and political risk, while stronger global growth underpins industrial metals prices and lends support for the AUD.  There is every reason to see the Australian labour data this week continuing its improving trend, while NZ housing data may again show a weaker trend.

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart that pinpoints a top zone, we wanted to add some color to the DXY break below 92 pivot support and the price action path we see unfolding in coming weeks.Our base case for the 10 year treasury yield is noted below. We have touted a futures topside target in the 128 region as the immediate level that will cap the yield slide and price top. Unless we can…

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart that pinpoints a top zone, we wanted to add some color to the DXY break below 92 pivot support and the price action path we see unfolding in coming weeks.Our base case for the 10 year treasury yield is noted below. We have touted a futures topside target in the 128 region as the immediate level that will cap the yield slide and price top. Unless we can…

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Tide Turns Dollar Bullish

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD. It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political...

Greg Gibbs

Merkel's Triumph Masks the Longer-Term Challenges from the Empowered Fringes

Angela Merkel swept to another strong plurality in the Bundestag, albeit with a smaller share of votes (32.9%) and seats (217 out of 631 according...

Prasenjit K. Basu

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its...

Greg Gibbs

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

USD had a reprieve so far this week after hitting new lows for the year last week. However, EM currencies, in particular, have held most of their...

Greg Gibbs

This Euro Barrier to Halt Rise

The Euro currency is nearing the tail end of a rather linear rise and starting to show signs of exhaustion. Before we get to the macro Euro chart...

Thomas Schroeder

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