Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus, Aletheia Capital

Chris Roberts

Technical Analyst - Global with an Asian focus

Independent and original Asian investment research

Aletheia Capital

Aletheia Capital (HK) Ltd. (previously known as Asianomics) combines the extensive knowledge of its experienced team with technology and regulatory changes to disrupt Global Markets business in Asia. The firm is completely independent with no conflicts of interest either on Investment Banking advisory or Capital Markets execution.

Technical Analysis

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of trend conformity continues to create widely diverse opinions on the Dollar’s direction.The most important forex rate in the world is the US Dollar/Euro (EUR – 1.1610), that and the closely correlated US Dollar Index (DXY – 94.76) are the FX rates we focus most on in this report.Our view remains bullish on the Euro and, thus not surprisingly bearish on the US Dollar Index. The Euro’s advance out of the 28-month range between €1.0500-1.1500, the subsequent break above the August 2016 high of €1.1714 and the strong advance to €1.2092 cumulatively increase the odds that the Euro has registered a major cyclical low.A cyclical advance from January’s €1.0341 low targets the major resistance around €1.5000, a barrier for almost 40 years. The Euro’s recent decline is seen as corrective, and we are now approaching an area of great importance to our bullish Euro view.This report also features analysis of the Japanese Yen (JPY – 113.71), British Pound (GBP – 1.3171) and the Australian Dollar (AUD - 0.7691).

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

-Spain's post-Franco settlement based on devolution (or a "State of Autonomies") has been strained since the GFC, with Catalonia demanding either independence or a renegotiation of its fiscal arrangements with the national government. The Catalans believe they are paying upto 5% of their GDP more into the national fiscal pie than they are receiving back from Spain's government. -With Rajoy of the PP (legatee of Franco's Nationalists from the Civil War of 80 years ago) refusing to negotiate with…

-Spain's post-Franco settlement based on devolution (or a "State of Autonomies") has been strained since the GFC, with Catalonia demanding either independence or a renegotiation of its fiscal arrangements with the national government. The Catalans believe they are paying upto 5% of their GDP more into the national fiscal pie than they are receiving back from Spain's government. -With Rajoy of the PP (legatee of Franco's Nationalists from the Civil War of 80 years ago) refusing to negotiate with…

Catalonia's Attempted Secession Reflects the EU's Continuing Existential Crisis

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD.  In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD, long positions and bullish sentiment leave them vulnerable to position-squaring.  The EUR has moved too far from its yield disadvantage, and it is not as cheap as some might have you believe.  The Bank of Canada has moved into a watch-and-wait mode. The political shockwave in NZ may be the catalyst for a major realignment in the NZD’s long-run over-valuation.  AUD is suffering from weaker house price growth in Australia and China, the RBA is badly missing its inflation target, and its politics are hardly a shining example for any country.

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD.  In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD, long positions and bullish sentiment leave them vulnerable to position-squaring.  The EUR has moved too far from its yield disadvantage, and it is not as cheap as some might have you believe.  The Bank of Canada has moved into a watch-and-wait mode. The political shockwave in NZ may be the catalyst for a major realignment in the NZD’s long-run over-valuation.  AUD is suffering from weaker house price growth in Australia and China, the RBA is badly missing its inflation target, and its politics are hardly a shining example for any country.

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

G7 monetary winds began to shift with the Fed’s December 2013 tapering of its bond purchases.  This was followed by additional Fed actions and moves by other major central banks: the Fed has delivered four quarter-point rate hikes since December 2015 and launched a very gradual wind down of its balance sheet this month, the Bank of Canada raised rates in September, and the Bank of England has guided toward a rate hike at its November 2 MPC meeting.  Even the Bank of Japan has slowed the…

G7 monetary winds began to shift with the Fed’s December 2013 tapering of its bond purchases.  This was followed by additional Fed actions and moves by other major central banks: the Fed has delivered four quarter-point rate hikes since December 2015 and launched a very gradual wind down of its balance sheet this month, the Bank of Canada raised rates in September, and the Bank of England has guided toward a rate hike at its November 2 MPC meeting.  Even the Bank of Japan has slowed the…

ECB Belatedly Joining The Shifting Monetary Winds

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week.  Expectations have settled on a halving in the monthly amount to EUR30bn, while adding nine months to the current program that ends in December this year. However, it appears that most market analysts see a risk that the ECB over-delivers with either a faster or larger taper, creating upside risk for Euro yields and the EUR.  They may be justified by the stable and solid Eurozone recovery underway.  However, the ECB has been at pains this year to avoid severe market reaction to a seemingly inevitable policy taper.  And they have expressed explicit concern over the strength in the EUR since its September policy meeting.  The ECB is likely to be very wary of exceeding taper expectations; expectations that it appears to have fed the market some weeks ago.  Market positioning appears to be quite long EUR.  In our view, the EUR is more vulnerable to a correction lower as the market shifts focus from the taper to the ECB’s low rate commitment and the wider EUR yield disadvantage this year.

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week.  Expectations have settled on a halving in the monthly amount to EUR30bn, while adding nine months to the current program that ends in December this year. However, it appears that most market analysts see a risk that the ECB over-delivers with either a faster or larger taper, creating upside risk for Euro yields and the EUR.  They may be justified by the stable and solid Eurozone recovery underway.  However, the ECB has been at pains this year to avoid severe market reaction to a seemingly inevitable policy taper.  And they have expressed explicit concern over the strength in the EUR since its September policy meeting.  The ECB is likely to be very wary of exceeding taper expectations; expectations that it appears to have fed the market some weeks ago.  Market positioning appears to be quite long EUR.  In our view, the EUR is more vulnerable to a correction lower as the market shifts focus from the taper to the ECB’s low rate commitment and the wider EUR yield disadvantage this year.

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

US Dollar: One Size Does Not Fit All

The US Dollar’s trend, even just against the majors, is either bullish or bearish, depending on which cross rate you’re focused on. This lack of...

Chris Roberts

Catalonia's Attempted Secession Reflects the EU's Continuing Existential Crisis

-Spain's post-Franco settlement based on devolution (or a "State of Autonomies") has been strained since the GFC, with Catalonia demanding either...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Major Moves Afoot (EUR, CAD, NZD & AUD)

Major corrective moves may be underway in EUR and NZD. Further weakness may also be in stall for CAD and AUD. In the case on EUR, CAD and AUD,...

Greg Gibbs

ECB Belatedly Joining The Shifting Monetary Winds

G7 monetary winds began to shift with the Fed’s December 2013 tapering of its bond purchases. This was followed by additional Fed actions and...

RDQ Economics

ECB Unlikely to Over-Deliver on Taper

It is universally anticipated that the ECB announces a significant taper or reduction in the pace of its asset purchases on Thursday this week. ...

Greg Gibbs

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