Multi-asset Macro/Emerging Markets Strategist

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.<ul class="">
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This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.</li>
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Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…</li>
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Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities.

This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the merits of Ray Dalio's 'Big Short' on European stocks and add long EUR-SEK and short ZAR-MXN to our watchlist. We stay defensive on USD, US Treasurys and US equities via long positions in JPY, EUR, UST 10s vs 30s and US banks vs FANG+ stocks. We are long AUD-NZD and SGD-CNH and prefer Malaysia to Indian and Philippine equities.

Monday: Japan trade, Thailand…


Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

REAL-Economics.com

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this week with the centre-left SPD, giving the latter control of both the finance and foreign ministries. Otto Scholz, the centrist SPD mayor of Hamburg (well to the left of Schäuble on fiscal policy) is set to become deputy chancellor and finance minister, and the SPD has secured commitments to boost spending on pensions and public services. The key…

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this week with the centre-left SPD, giving the latter control of both the finance and foreign ministries. Otto Scholz, the centrist SPD mayor of Hamburg (well to the left of Schäuble on fiscal policy) is set to become deputy chancellor and finance minister, and the SPD has secured commitments to boost spending on pensions and public services. The key…

Germany Finally Abandons Fiscal Austerity: Good for Growth, Bad for Bonds

FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

In our report last week, (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/bond-yields-in-driver-s-seat-time-for-correction-in-equities-and-the-usd" target="_blank">Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan</a>), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields spilling over to a correction in global equities and the USD.  The recovery in the USD has been modest so far, but it may be a creeper as the market pays more attention to risks associated with late-cycle economic growth and central bank policy tightening.   Progress by the US Congress on a funding deal could be the immediate catalyst for more dollar gains.  The recent fall in AUD/NZD appears out-of-line with relative economic trends, yield spread and commodity prices.

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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 
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Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.</li>
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Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee</li>
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Tuesday…</li>
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Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. 


Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven RMB depreciation by going long SGD-CNH. We take profit on long VIX but stay short 10-year USTs. We add long AUD-NZD, short Indian equities, long EUR-GBP to our watchlist. We may short the Philippine peso if the BSP keeps rates on hold.

Monday: Composite PMIs, Turkey CPI, Indonesia GDP and the Korea High Court's ruling on Samsung heir Jay Y. Lee

Tuesday…



Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and consolidation in global equities, if not a more significant correction. The fall in the USD over the last year has appeared increasingly correlated with rising global equities, diverging significantly from its improving yield advantage.  A period of volatility in global equities may refocus attention back on yield spreads and contribute to a period of recovery in the USD.  The EUR may now be over-bought and near long-term technical resistance.  Some easing in Eurozone inflation expectations may further contribute to a corrective fall in the EUR from its highs since 2014.

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Week Ahead in Global Macro: FOMC/ECB Minutes, Dalio's 'Big Short', Japan CPI, South Africa Budget

Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. This week in trade ideas: Buy VIX on dips below 14. We review the...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Germany Finally Abandons Fiscal Austerity: Good for Growth, Bad for Bonds

The six-month period of post-election uncertainty in Germany is close to ending, after the conservative CDU/CSU bloc secured a coalition deal this...

Prasenjit K. Basu

USD Rebound Is a Creeper

In our report last week, (Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD; 31-Jan), we anticipated rising US yields...

Greg Gibbs

Week Ahead in Global Macro: US Stopgap #5, UST Auctions, RBA, RBNZ, BOE, China Trade, Phils. BSP

Executive summary: Our guide to this week’s global macro risk events and trading opportunities. Trade ideas: We position for a policy-driven...

Virgil Fernandez Esguerra

Bond Yields in Driver's Seat; Time for Correction in Equities and the USD

The rise in bond yields may have moved into a phase which is self-sustaining, at least for a while, triggering a period of volatility and...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)