FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for some recovery in China.  However, its upside may be hampered by the increasing concern over more rapidly falling house prices in Australia, weaker construction activity and fears that households may have slowed spending.  RBA rate cut expectations have increased and Australian rates have lagged the recent rebound in US rates.

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead.  Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors will dampen activity and assets in the US more than many other developed and EM countries.  The boost to equities and growth from US tax policy has passed its peak.  US politics is set to become increasingly partisan over the next two years of the Trump administration.  US trade policy has softened in the wake on the sharp fall in US equities in Q4.  Several EM countries have resolved their deep political distractions, and their economies have improved since mid-year.  We can see the USD reversing more of its gains in the last year as the global economic outlook stabilises and the Fed enters an extended pause in rates policy.

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks.

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake.  The pundits continue to applaud Powell, but the markets have delivered a thumbs down; the US yield curve has inverted from 1 to 5 years, the US equity market has had its biggest correction since the global financial crisis, market-based inflation expectations have fallen significantly, and the USD is stalling notwithstanding higher rates and global growth risks. 

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our underperform/bear call for banks, small caps, tech and transports to lead a bigger market spiral is taking shape. Small caps, banks and transports are now breaking early 2018 lows, signaling a broader S&amp;P break below 2,600 may in fact be unfolding now rather than in January/Q1.Fed speak will dominate a break/bounce next week but a break down is in the cards, regardless in 2019.Breadth remains bearish.USD/JPY teetering on a pattern breakout. Gold is not trading well given it has decoupled from traditional correlations.Big net outflows recorded in key sectors/markets last week.

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due to a range of global risk factors. Today French budget risk and Brexit uncertainty are dragging down the GBP and EUR, despite growing political risk in the USA as Trump threatens to shut down the government over border wall funding.  Next week, US political risk and a dovish Fed may reverse gains in the USD.  The ECB meeting poses a near-term risk for the EUR if it follows the recent trend of more dovish central bank statements, although it should stick to its current policy guidance. US-China trade war fears eased on Tuesday and may help support Asian markets.

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

Germany

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union. 

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Chinese Stimulus Vs. A Weak Australian Housing Market

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover. The...

Greg Gibbs

USD Peaking with the Economic and Political Cycle

Out-performance in the US economy, as was seen in 2018, seems much less likely in the year ahead. Lower oil prices and slowing high tech sectors...

Greg Gibbs

The Market Gives Powell a Thumbs Down

The Fed has displayed a lack of flexibility and is generating market fears that it will make a policy mistake. The pundits continue to applaud...

Greg Gibbs

Core US Sectors Leading an S&P Major Support Break

We see increasing evidence of a failed December risk on phase as core sectors break below supports and early 2018 lows in a lead fashion.Our...

Thomas Schroeder

Dollar up Today, but Down Tomorrow? Fed and Govt Shut-Down Risk

It feels a bit like if I write something on the FX today, it will be redundant by tomorrow as conditions in the market are changing so quickly due...

Greg Gibbs

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)