FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week).

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation.  They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The weight of the news was too much – Trump expanding tariffs threats to one of its biggest and most integrated trading partners, Mexico, and trade relations hardened between China and the US. Trump plans to convince the UK to avoid Huawei, China started its own “Entity” list to potential ban US companies, and it is preparing to halt rare earth mineral exports to the US.  Optimists are giving up on a global economic recovery, and Chinese PMI data confirm its manufacturing sector is struggling already from the trade war.   The tide may be turning against the USD as the market prices in significant Fed rate cuts, its yields fall sharply, and its equity market leads recent falls.  The USA is starting to look like one of the biggest potential losers in a trade war.  Its economic data are not revealing many problems yet, but this only suggests it has further to fall.  The market is likely to dismiss stronger US economic data and panic at the first sign of weakness (raising risks around the ISM and payrolls reports next week). 

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war.  The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that China boycotts US brands, but Trump may have a significant advantage.  Bilateral US tariff policy may be an effective policy to counter China’s policy of subsidizing and regulatory support of its industry.  Trump can see a political gain from the trade war and is unlikely to easily back down.  The escalation in the dispute is likely to more permanently dampen optimism that the global economy will soon rebound from its slowdown.  Downward pressure on CNY is dragging down Asian currencies, although in the long run, production may shift to other Asian nations and support their currencies.  The AUD is dragged down both as an Asian currency and a commodity currency.  The EUR stabilizes, even though the EU economy is threatened, for the same reason JPY gains – little room for yields to fall, current account surplus, a reduction in carry trades.  Safe-haven currencies gain against a weakened USD; including bitcoin.

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

US and global asset markets appear to have built in a completed US-China trade deal relatively soon.  Equities have rebounded this year, despite sluggish global trade and industrial activity since last year. If a trade deal proves elusive, or indeed if the US raises tariffs, it can significantly undermine global asset markets.Trump’s tweets may be tactical, but his administration has demonstrated a willingness to use tariffs to reset trade relations and for broader domestic and geopolitical objectives.  Unless there is a clear backlash on the US economy and US equities, we should expect the Trump administration to keep pushing the envelope on trade relations.The market is leaning slightly against an RBA hike later today.  We think the RBA should cut to send a clear message that its inflation target still matters and to address a sharp fall in inflation expectations in the last six month. As such we do expect them to cut.  In any case, they will probably express an easing bias.  We don’t see as much urgency for the RBNZ to cut on Wednesday, but if the RBA go, the RBNZ is likely to follow.  Either way, the pressure for lower rates, the relative strength of the US economy, and weaker global growth trends suggests downside pressure remains on both AUD and NZD.

US and global asset markets appear to have built in a completed US-China trade deal relatively soon.  Equities have rebounded this year, despite sluggish global trade and industrial activity since last year. If a trade deal proves elusive, or indeed if the US raises tariffs, it can significantly undermine global asset markets.Trump’s tweets may be tactical, but his administration has demonstrated a willingness to use tariffs to reset trade relations and for broader domestic and geopolitical objectives.  Unless there is a clear backlash on the US economy and US equities, we should expect the Trump administration to keep pushing the envelope on trade relations.The market is leaning slightly against an RBA hike later today.  We think the RBA should cut to send a clear message that its inflation target still matters and to address a sharp fall in inflation expectations in the last six month. As such we do expect them to cut.  In any case, they will probably express an easing bias.  We don’t see as much urgency for the RBNZ to cut on Wednesday, but if the RBA go, the RBNZ is likely to follow.  Either way, the pressure for lower rates, the relative strength of the US economy, and weaker global growth trends suggests downside pressure remains on both AUD and NZD.

RBA and RBNZ in the Hot Seat, Trump’s Tirade Threatens Global Risk Appetite

Stronger Eurozone Q1 GDP and German CPI suggest that the ECB need not rush to ease policy further.  However, these data points appear to be largely payback for weak previous outcomes.  More current business surveys suggest that there is no clear path back to above-trend growth.  The EUR downtrend may persist if the market continues to seek higher-yielding assets in an environment of stable or falling in global yields and credit spreads. The most-watched measures of US inflation have fallen, but there is a divergence in underlying measures and the lesser watched, but perhaps more indicative measures, have increased. The US labour market still appears tight, and the market and the Fed might be premature in writing-off inflation.  However, the Fed would welcome higher inflation, and US rates are expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future.

Stronger Eurozone Q1 GDP and German CPI suggest that the ECB need not rush to ease policy further.  However, these data points appear to be largely payback for weak previous outcomes.  More current business surveys suggest that there is no clear path back to above-trend growth.  The EUR downtrend may persist if the market continues to seek higher-yielding assets in an environment of stable or falling in global yields and credit spreads. The most-watched measures of US inflation have fallen, but there is a divergence in underlying measures and the lesser watched, but perhaps more indicative measures, have increased. The US labour market still appears tight, and the market and the Fed might be premature in writing-off inflation.  However, the Fed would welcome higher inflation, and US rates are expected to remain stable for the foreseeable future.

A Reprieve for the EUR, but Not a Game Changer

The USD is testing the top of its range for over a year against the DXY major currency index, and its highs for the year-to-date against the broader Bloomberg dollar index against ten leading currencies.  The rebound in the USD is surprising in light of the stronger than expected Chinese economic data.  However, other economic reports suggest that global manufacturing and export growth remains weak; including flash April PMIs and export data in Korea and Singapore.  Strength in the dollar reflects some risk aversion related to higher oil prices on USA’s Iran policy, Brexit risks, Italian government risks, and USA trade policy risks.  US bond yields stalled, consistent with some risk aversion.  However, US equities powered to new closing highs.

The USD is testing the top of its range for over a year against the DXY major currency index, and its highs for the year-to-date against the broader Bloomberg dollar index against ten leading currencies.  The rebound in the USD is surprising in light of the stronger than expected Chinese economic data.  However, other economic reports suggest that global manufacturing and export growth remains weak; including flash April PMIs and export data in Korea and Singapore.  Strength in the dollar reflects some risk aversion related to higher oil prices on USA’s Iran policy, Brexit risks, Italian government risks, and USA trade policy risks.  US bond yields stalled, consistent with some risk aversion.  However, US equities powered to new closing highs.  

Dollar Tests Highs as Global Risk Aversion Remains Elevated

Germany

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Euro (USDEUR CURNCY)

Safe Haven Status of the USD Starting to Crumble Under the Weight of Trump’s Trade Wars

US equities couldn’t muster an end of month consolidation. They attempted to stabilise on Thursday but closed near their lows on Friday. The...

Greg Gibbs

Trump Presses His Advantage Against China; CNY Drags Down Asian Currencies

CNY falls sharply illustrating that China bears most of the fallout from the trade war. The US economy also suffers, mostly from the risk that...

Greg Gibbs

RBA and RBNZ in the Hot Seat, Trump’s Tirade Threatens Global Risk Appetite

US and global asset markets appear to have built in a completed US-China trade deal relatively soon. Equities have rebounded this year, despite...

Greg Gibbs

A Reprieve for the EUR, but Not a Game Changer

Stronger Eurozone Q1 GDP and German CPI suggest that the ECB need not rush to ease policy further. However, these data points appear to be largely...

Greg Gibbs

Dollar Tests Highs as Global Risk Aversion Remains Elevated

The USD is testing the top of its range for over a year against the DXY major currency index, and its highs for the year-to-date against the...

Greg Gibbs

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