Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.</li><li>Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.</li><li>The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.</li></ul>

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy.Afterwards we will have a look at the improving sentiment in Germany and then at a dive into the commodity rally currently underway.The we’ll talk about Canada where rates finally look to be impacting the economy and then we’ll end up with a short look at US inflation expectations.

5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.</li><li>The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.</li><li>This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy.The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0-0.1% from now on and will also abandon its YCC and ETF purchases, in line with the reports that emerged yesterday ahead of the decision.This is the first rate hike in Japan in 17 years. BoJ Governor Ueda said it was important to keep policy settings accommodative, suggesting that there was little rush to add to rate hikes for now. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

<ul><li>Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.</li><li>Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.</li><li>For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.</li></ul>

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space.Our portfolio remains tilted strongly towards cyclical / inflationary bets such as materials and crude.For the whole portfolio click here: Steno Research Portfolio.

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

<ul><li>The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).</li><li>Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.</li><li>The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.</li></ul>

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major central banks (except the BoJ).Markets feel certain that the SNB and the ECB cuts in June (we agree), but Fed, RBA, BOC and BoE pricing is closing on 50/50 calls after a series of sticky inflation numbers from North America.The Fed is priced hawkishly relative to the 75bps dot plot for 2024, while the ECB is the most dovish central bank in forward pricing for 2024 but yet falls short of the 100bps hinted by the Greek member Stournaras last week.

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

<ul><li>Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?</li><li>It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.</li><li>This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.</li></ul>

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead?It is a fair question to ask after what seems like years of recession chasing once again ending in tears for the macro bears.This sublime graphic created by the great Lee Coppock is exceptionally telling.

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

United States

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5 Things We Watch: BoJ, Germany, Commodities, Canada, Inflation

This week we are looking at the BoJ hiking rates for the first time since 2007 and its effects on the Japanese economy. Afterwards we will have a...

Steno Research

FX Daily - JPY Slides After BoJ Rate Hike

The JPY has weakened nearly 1% following the BoJ’s decision to ditch its negative rate policy. The central bank will set a policy rate range of 0...

Scotiabank

Energy Cable #61: Commodities are breaking out #2!

Last week we wrote about the price action in commodities and the week ended in some strong gains across the space. Our portfolio remains tilted...

Steno Research

G5 Rates Watch: Mirror mirror on the wall, who’s the biggest interest rate cutter of them all?

The central bank outlook looks surprisingly uniform as the market has homed in on June as the first timing for the cutting cycle from most major...

Steno Research

Steno Signals #91 – No more recessions ever!?

Happy Sunday from Sunny Copenhagen and welcome to our flagship editorial! Is the business cycle dead? It is a fair question to ask after what...

Steno Research

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