Macro Regime Indicator: Liquidity is everything in January
New month, new regime, which means a new asset allocation for the month ahead. The turn of the calendar once again calls for us to assess our...
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5 Things We Watch – Freight Rates, Positioning, Liquidity, EUR-flation, Growth
Welcome to the first 2024 edition of our ‘5 Things We Watch’, where we as always try to dissect global macro trends, how we see the world and how...
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EUR Inflation Watch – The ECB forecast is OFF by >1.5%-points for Q1
The smallest German state, Saarland, sneaked out its preliminary December inflation this morning and it was another soft surprise. Saarland CPI...
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Part Five: The German Vulnerability
The fact that the UK yield curve has flattened more than Germany's is puzzling. This could indicate that the UK economy is on the brink of a deep...
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5 Things That Could Wrongfoot Consensus in 2024
The overwhelming consensus for 2024 continues to be a soft landing in the US with interest rates coming firmly down while growth continues on...
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