Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle.</li><li>Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of change that really drives asset markets.</li><li>This analysis is chock-full of rate of change charts, just to remind you that we’ve only managed to nudge inflation back to just above target levels—right as the cycle’s rate of change is shifting towards re-acceleration in many places.</li></ul>

If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle.Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of change that really drives asset markets.This analysis is chock-full of rate of change charts, just to remind you that we’ve only managed to nudge inflation back to just above target levels—right as the cycle’s rate of change is shifting towards re-acceleration in many places.

Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research, Steno Research

Mikkel Rosenvold

Geopolitical Analyst, Steno Research

<ul><li>Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border.</li><li>The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians.</li><li>In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.</li></ul>

Clashes between Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants intensified along the Israel-Lebanon border.The conflict escalated after a Hezbollah rocket attack on an Israeli border town killed four civilians.In response, Israel launched airstrikes targeting Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and infrastructure damage.

Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?

<ul><li>Greetings from Europe! The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and major tradeable themes for the week ahead.</li><li>We see a couple of major tradeable themes in the week(s) ahead.</li><li>First, the Euro area data, which is still improving in forward-looking indicators, while spot data remains relatively soft, probably in part due to a plethora of (potential) election risks.</li></ul>

Greetings from Europe! The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and major tradeable themes for the week ahead.We see a couple of major tradeable themes in the week(s) ahead.First, the Euro area data, which is still improving in forward-looking indicators, while spot data remains relatively soft, probably in part due to a plethora of (potential) election risks.

The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Data dependency is the name of the game, as central banks ponder their next steps.</li><li>We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall further.</li><li>The ECB started its rate cuts this month, the Fed didn’t, but both central banks have made it clear that they remain in a data-dependent mode and have not given clear signals about what will happen at the next few meetings. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Data dependency is the name of the game, as central banks ponder their next steps.We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall further.The ECB started its rate cuts this month, the Fed didn’t, but both central banks have made it clear that they remain in a data-dependent mode and have not given clear signals about what will happen at the next few meetings. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Major forecasts: It’s all data dependent

<ul><li>Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial.</li><li>It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for global inflation expectations.</li><li>Our live assessment of the Chinese recovery continues to paint a stalling picture in Real Estate, exemplified by the physical copper demand being on the edge of a precipice, while the pollution based metrics hint of a continued surge in industrial production into June.</li></ul>

Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial.It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for global inflation expectations.Our live assessment of the Chinese recovery continues to paint a stalling picture in Real Estate, exemplified by the physical copper demand being on the edge of a precipice, while the pollution based metrics hint of a continued surge in industrial production into June.

EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Inflation Watch: What if the Cyclical Prices Are Not Truly Tamed? Lessons from Canada and Sweden

If you know me, you know I have a thing for charts, especially those showing momentum in the macro cycle. Forget nominal levels; it’s the rate of...

Steno Research

Great Game – Israel and Hezbollah headed for war?

Hello and welcome to this week’s Great Game. We have a lot of current geopolitical events to cover, so let’s get to it!Israel and Hezbollah headed...

Steno Research

The Week At A Glance: Time to bet against the USD?

Greetings from Europe!The Week At A Glance replaces our Morning Report each Monday as it allows for a deep dive into the economic releases and...

Steno Research

Major forecasts: It’s all data dependent

We think the most likely path for the ECB remains one of quarterly rate cuts, while we see the Fed slashing rates in December. EUR/USD could fall...

Nordea

EM Watch: Is the Chinese copper demand down 40%?

Welcome to our weekly EM and Metals editorial. It’s hard not to talk about China again this week, given the importance of the metals trade for...

Steno Research

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