FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p>The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax reform.  The market is trading cautiously, facing a number of global uncertainties.  There is underlying strength in the US economy that appears to be underappreciated, but may support a strong year-end finish in the dollar.  Global growth remains buoyant, and emerging market assets have rebounded in recent sessions.  It is possible that they spoil the dollar’s year-end party.  However, demand for EM markets is unlikely to spill over to the AUD and NZD; low and diminishing yield advantage, and sluggish equities are likely to weigh on their performance.</p>

The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax reform.  The market is trading cautiously, facing a number of global uncertainties.  There is underlying strength in the US economy that appears to be underappreciated, but may support a strong year-end finish in the dollar.  Global growth remains buoyant, and emerging market assets have rebounded in recent sessions.  It is possible that they spoil the dollar’s year-end party.  However, demand for EM markets is unlikely to spill over to the AUD and NZD; low and diminishing yield advantage, and sluggish equities are likely to weigh on their performance.

The Dollar Has Made a Habit of Year-End Rallies

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should</strong>…</p></div>

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest reading since 1987! Strength was across the board. The highest supplier delivery times balance since 2004, combined with customer inventories still at rock bottom levels, underscores that surging demand is surprising producers and seeing finished goods inventories drawn down. Although the headline index has now probably peaked, the need to re-stock should…

<div class="content-highlight"><p><strong>Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the</strong>…</p></div>

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two factors merit special attention. First, the Philly Fed's bellwether capex intentions balance held near 30-year highs in September, signalling that animal spirits remain robust and the capex recovery continues. Second, the Dallas Fed's manufacturing survey was also buoyant in September, suggesting that the Hurricane Harvey-related weakness seen in the…

<p><em>The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.</em></p>

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment.  The market response so far is muted, but may well continue to build.  We like the USD/JPY, but the Japanese election may be a sticking point.

<p><em>The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.</em></p>

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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The Dollar Has Made a Habit of Year-End Rallies

The USD has finished each of the last three years with a run higher, and it may again end on a strong note as the market looks forward to tax...

Greg Gibbs

US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part III

As expected, the ISM manufacturing report for September was an absolute blockbuster. At 60.8, the headline index equalled its second-highest...

Richard Iley

US: Manufacturing Boom! - Part II

Incoming regional manufacturing surveys, particularly the Philly Fed survey, suggest that the US's manufacturing boom remains in full swing. Two...

Richard Iley

Trump Tax Plan Is a Big Dollar Booster

The Trump tax plan is potentially very positive for the USD, generating a significant incentive for capital inflow and business investment. The...

Greg Gibbs

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global...

Greg Gibbs

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