FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and </em>healthcare,<em> railed against </em>NAFTA,<em> and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.</em></p>

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally.  Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic recovery outside of the US has gained momentum, attracting capital flow to emerging markets.  Geopolitical risks have boosted JPY and gold, while lessened Trump’s desire to pursue trade restrictions against China. US economic activity in Q1 has been sub-trend and recent inflation data has softened, lessening the urgency for Fed policy tightening. Trump has called for a weaker USD and said he likes low-interest rates, reversing his pre-election basis for criticizing Fed Chair Yellen. UK PM May has inspired a break-up in the GBP that may build momentum if she can campaign effectively and strengthen her grip on power.  The first round French election this weekend may help lift political uncertainty and spur a recovery in EUR. On Tuesday, Trump again promised big policy strides on tax, infrastructure, and healthcare, railed against NAFTA, and signed an executive order to review the USA skilled visa program and renew a Federal policy to buy and hire American.  Early in his still short presidency, such actions might have boosted the USD and US equities.  The market is now more focused on results rather than rhetoric.

May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

<p><em>Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and reports of Chinese troops moving towards the North Korean border.  These developments are providing support for JPY and gold, and keeping global asset markets on edge, trading in choppy ranges.  However, rising geopolitical risk is helping revive confidence in the Trump administration and reduce political risk in the USA.  The improvement in Trump administration performance may prove more durable and lift yields and help support the USD as geopolitical risk fades, reversing recent gains in JPY and gold.  The USA labor data had no smoking gun on inflation, but revealed further tightening in the labor market and will keep the Fed on a path to gradually tighten rates and begin to dis-invest in Treasuries and Agency MBS later this year.  Recent flattening in the US yield curve may also reverse if geopolitical risk recedes.  Nerves over the French election are rising as the race for the first round tightens.  EUR is languishing near recent lows.  If Macron makes it to the second round on 23 April and Le Pen achieves little more than a quarter of the vote, EUR may start to recover.  The probability of a Macron victory should rise in a head-to-head run-off with Le Pen.</em></p>

Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and reports of Chinese troops moving towards the North Korean border.  These developments are providing support for JPY and gold, and keeping global asset markets on edge, trading in choppy ranges.  However, rising geopolitical risk is helping revive confidence in the Trump administration and reduce political risk in the USA.  The improvement in Trump administration performance may prove more durable and lift yields and help support the USD as geopolitical risk fades, reversing recent gains in JPY and gold.  The USA labor data had no smoking gun on inflation, but revealed further tightening in the labor market and will keep the Fed on a path to gradually tighten rates and begin to dis-invest in Treasuries and Agency MBS later this year.  Recent flattening in the US yield curve may also reverse if geopolitical risk recedes.  Nerves over the French election are rising as the race for the first round tightens.  EUR is languishing near recent lows.  If Macron makes it to the second round on 23 April and Le Pen achieves little more than a quarter of the vote, EUR may start to recover.  The probability of a Macron victory should rise in a head-to-head run-off with Le Pen.

As Geopolitical Risk Rises, US Political Risk Eases

Economist (US Macro), RDQ Economics

Conrad DeQuadros

Economist (US Macro)

RDQ Economics

RDQ Economics provides global macroeconomic consulting services with an emphasis on U.S. economic fundamentals and monetary policy.  
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Our views are driven by consistent application of classical economic and monetary principles and has generated superior anticipation of changes in the stance of monetary policy and of movements in economic growth and inflation.
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The founders of RDQ Economics—John Ryding and Conrad DeQuadros—worked together on Wall Street for a decade, in the independent research space for nine years, and have experience in central banking at the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England.  John and Conrad have worked closely with fixed income, foreign exchange, and equity traders and portfolio managers, which has enabled their analysis and advice to be tailored to a clientele that is focused on trading and investment decisions.

<p>This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the FOMC minutes, and an interview with San Francisco Fed President John Williams.  These updates suggests primary dealers and market participants are under-estimating the likelihood that the Fed begins winding down its balance sheet this year by not reinvesting all of the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that mature.</p><p>The Federal Reserve Bank of New…</p>

This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the FOMC minutes, and an interview with San Francisco Fed President John Williams.  These updates suggests primary dealers and market participants are under-estimating the likelihood that the Fed begins winding down its balance sheet this year by not reinvesting all of the Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities that mature.The Federal Reserve Bank of New…

An Update on the Fed's Balance Sheet Wind Down

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

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<strong>Chartonics FX webcast </strong>Thursday 6 April 2017</div><div><strong>DXY 100.60 inflection</strong></div><p>To view click on this link: <strong><a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4" target="_blank" data-saferedirecturl="https://www.google.com/url?hl=en&amp;q=https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4&amp;source=gmail&amp;ust=1491538412295000&amp;usg=AFQjCNE5f9gzfrKC1a21Lx45xEa0qALNhg">https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4</a> </strong>11:16 min.</p><div>
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<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/023/730/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1491452125" data-smartkarma-image-id="23730"></figure><div class="content-caption">FX webcast</div>
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<p><strong>DXY </strong>– DXY recovery off of 99 support is constructive as is upside pressure on 100.60 pivot resistance. Hugging this resistance does increase odds of clearing this hurdle which would be reason to increase USD long positioning. Only a break below DXY 99 would turn the bias bearish for the USD. US yields are at the bottom end of the range which…</p>
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Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 6 April 2017DXY 100.60 inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4 11:16 min.

FX webcast

DXY – DXY recovery off of 99 support is constructive as is upside pressure on 100.60 pivot resistance. Hugging this resistance does increase odds of clearing this hurdle which would be reason to increase USD long positioning. Only a break below DXY 99 would turn the bias bearish for the USD. US yields are at the bottom end of the range which…


<p><em>It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.</em></p>

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up expectations it would begin its asset run-off later this year, after one or two more rate hikes. The fall in equities in recent weeks and lower bond yields may reflect the Trump administration’s setbacks and falling confidence that it can deliver tax reform. Additionally, there may be some worries over geopolitical risks as gas attacks in Syria and ballistic missile tests in North Korea add pressure on the Trump administration. As yet there is also no smoking gun on inflation in the USA and some mixed economic reports recently.  Lower equities and yields continue to support JPY and gold.  However, the Trump/Xi meeting has the potential to deliver soothing rhetoric for the equity market, and the ADP employment report was again much stronger than expected, raising the odds of a strong payrolls report.  This may lift US yields, and support the USD/JPY from the low end of its current range.  Much may depend on the wages data and indicators of tightness in labor market.

Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

United States

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May's Bid to Boost Power, Trump's Words Lose Power

The USD has given back its initial Trump inspired rally. Confidence in Trump’s capacity to deliver on his ambitious agenda has faded. Economic...

Greg Gibbs

As Geopolitical Risk Rises, US Political Risk Eases

Geopolitical risk appears elevated after recent events in Syria, Tillerson en route to Russia, US warships en route to the Korean Peninsula, and...

Greg Gibbs

An Update on the Fed's Balance Sheet Wind Down

This week brought important updates on Federal Reserve balance sheet policy from the New York Fed's annual report on open market operations, the...

RDQ Economics

DXY 100.60 Inflection

Chartonics FX webcast Thursday 6 April 2017DXY 100.60 inflectionTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/P1a202lrmb4 11:16...

Thomas Schroeder

Market yet to React to Approaching Fed Asset Run-Off

It is surprising to see US yields fall and the bond curve at its flattest point since December after the FOMC minutes where the Fed firmed up...

Greg Gibbs

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