FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global growth, diminishing uncertainty from geopolitical risks and hurricane season, and now a clearer focus on tax reform.  The USD/JPY is likely to mirror any further rise in yields.  The Bank of Canada walked back rate hike expectations.  NZD/USD may succumb to yet further narrowing in its razor-thin yield advantage with diminishing reasons to explain its strength.

Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: <a href="https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO" target="_blank">https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO</a>10:06 min.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/034/437/original/CPG%20INSERT.png?1506500029" data-smartkarma-image-id="34437"></figure><div class="content-caption">USD breakout webcast</div>DXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY bottoming above 91 and the Euro breaking below 1.19 minor support and now has taken out 1.18 pivot support opening the way for a DXY move to 93.50 and the bigger hurdle at 94.20.  We have been increasing USD long positions over recent weeks.Fresh bull signals for a tactical USD rally. Given our bullish US yield stance we must take into…

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO10:06 min.USD breakout webcastDXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY bottoming above 91 and the Euro breaking below 1.19 minor support and now has taken out 1.18 pivot support opening the way for a DXY move to 93.50 and the bigger hurdle at 94.20.  We have been increasing USD long positions over recent weeks.Fresh bull signals for a tactical USD rally. Given our bullish US yield stance we must take into…

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities.

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD.  It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political uncertainty in the US.  Stronger global growth has supported EM, and the EUR has rebounded on declining European political uncertainty and a solid European economic recovery.  Lower than expected US inflation outcomes have also put the market in two-minds over the pace of Fed policy tightening. North Korean tension has, if anything, only tended to weaken the USD further, strengthening the JPY, while having little discernable impact on the bullish trend for equities and EM markets.  However, in recent weeks these trends have reversed to some extent.  The market feels a bit full on its exposure to EUR, EM, and equities. 

The FOMC pretty much stuck to their outlook for the economy.  They indicated that the impacts of Hurricanes are unlikely to impact the broader outlook and the effects will be concentrated in the next two-quarters.  However, they did raise their GDP forecasts this year; it seems on rebuilding activity before year-end outweighing the near term disruption.A hike in December seems more likely with no more Fed members than in June forecasting no further hike.  Four members see no further hike, 11 see…

The FOMC pretty much stuck to their outlook for the economy.  They indicated that the impacts of Hurricanes are unlikely to impact the broader outlook and the effects will be concentrated in the next two-quarters.  However, they did raise their GDP forecasts this year; it seems on rebuilding activity before year-end outweighing the near term disruption.A hike in December seems more likely with no more Fed members than in June forecasting no further hike.  Four members see no further hike, 11 see…

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.

Fed on the QT, Market Still Digesting the BoE Rate Guidance

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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Rising US Yields to Lift USD/JPY; CAD and NZD Vulnerable

The rise in US long-term yields may continue, supported by Fed QT, ECB taper, rising oil prices, solid underlying recovery in the USA, solid global...

Greg Gibbs

USD Breakout

USD greenlightTo view click on this link: https://www.screencast.com/t/j7Sv6CNZO10:06 min.DXY - Mid-week updates outlined the risk of the DXY...

Thomas Schroeder

Tide Turns Dollar Bullish

The tide has turned, at least for the moment, for the USD. It has been on a broadly weaker trend this year, often undermined by political...

Greg Gibbs

Fed Sticks to the Plan

The FOMC pretty much stuck to their outlook for the economy. They indicated that the impacts of Hurricanes are unlikely to impact the broader...

Greg Gibbs

Fed on the QT, Market Still Digesting the BoE Rate Guidance

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional...

Greg Gibbs

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