FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.

Fed on the QT, Market Still Digesting the BoE Rate Guidance

Economist

Richard Iley

Macroeconomics

<div class="content-highlight">The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US economy that is in the midst of a strong, above-trend mid-cycle upswing, bringing an increasingly tight labour market in its train. The only missing piece of the jigsaw is still subdued wage inflation that will eventually follow. </div>Bears on the US economy are having a tough time of it lately. As we have highlighted in several recent reports, GDP growth looks…

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US economy that is in the midst of a strong, above-trend mid-cycle upswing, bringing an increasingly tight labour market in its train. The only missing piece of the jigsaw is still subdued wage inflation that will eventually follow. Bears on the US economy are having a tough time of it lately. As we have highlighted in several recent reports, GDP growth looks…

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation.

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its agenda.  US yields have rebounded from a low for the year at the end of last week.  They may continue to rise in light of the stronger than expected US economic data in recent months that has not been given much consideration due to a variety of home-grown and global distractions.  Low yielders, JPY and EUR may be particularly vulnerable.  EUR may be in correction mode from an over-extended and excessively consensus bullish view.  The ECB will continue to emphasize a slow removal of monetary accommodation. 

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF / Technical Analysis

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.<figure class="editor-figure mceNonEditable"><img class="editor-image img-responsive" src="https://static-prod.smartkarma.com/images/media/000/033/378/original/DXY%20for%20rel%20story.png?1505280413" data-smartkarma-image-id="33378"></figure><div class="content-caption">DXY turn zone</div>We have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market price action starting to struggle after extended gains amid big upside moves in the US and Europe. Is this perhaps linked to odds of an upcoming USD low.Here we look at ideal DXY  low and turn target near 90.50-00, assuming we don't pop above 92 near term and fade back.DXY turn zoneWe have made a case where a weaker Euro would ignite a powerful rally in…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. <a href="https://www.isl.org/en/news/rwi-isl-container-throughput-index-reaches-new-heights" target="_blank">The RWI/ISL container throughput index</a> is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable but more timely data series that is frequently ignored. The RWI/ISL container throughput index is based on data continuously collected by the Institute of Shipping Economics &amp; Logistics (ISL) from 82 ports which cover around 60% of global freight container traffic.As many ports release data just a few weeks after month-end, the RWI/ISL data is…

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Fed on the QT, Market Still Digesting the BoE Rate Guidance

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional...

Greg Gibbs

US: Labour Market JOLTS The Bears

The Bureau of Labour Statistics (BLS) data on job openings and labour market turnover a.k.a. JOLTS provides yet more evidence of a robust US...

Richard Iley

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

The US administration is all about tax reform, sending a disciplined message, and approaching Democrats to gain more bipartisan support for its...

Greg Gibbs

Long Europe/Short EM Pair Bet

Long Europe/Short EM pairWe have been allocating more to Europe given recent upside breakout in parts of Europe. We can also see Emerging market...

Thomas Schroeder

Global: Even More Bullish World Trade Data

The CPB dataset has emerged in recent years as most analysts' preferred measure of world trade. However there is a less heralded, equally reliable...

Richard Iley

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