FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Greg has had a long career in foreign exchange, beginning at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989.  He was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk. Greg learnt from highly respected stewards of policy and market development at the Bank.  He played a leading role in establishing the Bank’s approach to asset and currency management of its international reserves, and managed the Bank's Japanese bond portfolio for a year before joining the private sector in 1995.

In October 2015, Greg launched his own FX research company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, after completing duties at the Royal Bank of Scotland in Singapore where he was the Head of Asia Pacific Markets Strategy since February 2014.  His flagship  report (AmpGFX) is available here on SmartKarma.

He has maintained a trading track record since March 2013. The results are very good over this period. There have been significant macro developments that suit his approach to markets. He is now managing his own capital and will often have positions in the markets that he is writing about in his AmpGFX report.

For a detailed biography and trading performance analysis head to the ampGFXcapital.com website.

This Time Trump? – Scope for USD Rebound

USD Reprieve, but a Lot to Prove, NZD Facing Economic and Political Headwinds

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

<p><em>Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.</em></p>

Even though the Fed's QT starts gradually, the market may react to the prospect of it increasing in pace and resulting in a significant additional supply of bonds over the next two to three years.  ECB and BoJ QE may have delayed the impact of impending QT on yields, but the ECB is expected to begin to taper next year. Improving global growth confidence and strong equity markets, including emerging markets, may also contribute to higher global bond yields.  A renewed focus on US tax reform and calmer rhetoric on North Korea may further support US yields and the USD; in particular against JPY. The US rates curve remains relatively flat with less than two hikes priced in by end 2018, against the current FOMC dot plot for four.  The Fed may appear somewhat more reticent to hike. However, we see limited scope for a downward revision to its rate projections.  Recent evidence suggests that the labor market has tightened further, financial conditions remain easier than when they started hiking, and the weaker USD this year should help underpin its inflation outlook.  The market is still coming to terms with the message from the BoE that hikes are likely.  Positioning is still significantly short GBP and the BoE sees a weak GBP as the main culprit driving up inflation and the need to hike.

Fed on the QT, Market Still Digesting the BoE Rate Guidance