Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Macroeconomics

<ul><li>Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.</li><li>Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.</li><li>But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?</li></ul>

Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends.Over recent months, we’ve dedicated substantial time to upgrading our models and refining the data we use.But the core question remains: how do we interpret the complexities of the macro environment, and how can these insights inform financial market strategies?

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nordea

Nordea

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Nordea is the bank in the Nordics dedicated to serving corporations and institutional customers. Our offering includes a diverse range of financing, cash management and payment services, investment banking, capital markets products, securities services and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Euro-area flash inflation dropped to 2.9% y/y in Oct (consensus: 3.1% y/y), down from 4.3% y/y in Sep.</li><li>This was the last of the three months with large negative base effects.</li><li>Going forward, the slowdown in inflation towards the ECB target at 2% will be slower.At these levels – below 3% headline inflation – the ECB should gradually be changing reaction function from current inflation and dependence on current data – which is necessary to anchor inflation expectations during periods, where inflation is too high – to expected inflation and expected data a bit further ahead.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation dropped to 2.9% y/y in Oct (consensus: 3.1% y/y), down from 4.3% y/y in Sep.This was the last of the three months with large negative base effects.Going forward, the slowdown in inflation towards the ECB target at 2% will be slower.At these levels – below 3% headline inflation – the ECB should gradually be changing reaction function from current inflation and dependence on current data – which is necessary to anchor inflation expectations during periods, where inflation is too high – to expected inflation and expected data a bit further ahead.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Euro-area flash inflation: Lower headline, high core

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO

ABN AMRO is a personal bank in the digital age. A bank committed to playing a serious role in society. This digital age helps us to bring banking ever closer to our clients and what they need. Our areas of focus are inclusion, sustainability, social entrepreneurship, innovation, daily banking and more. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way.</li><li>To begin with, HICP inflation fell to 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, which was below the consensus and our own forecast.</li><li>The bulk of the drop was thanks to energy price inflation, which fell to -11.1% from -4.6% on the back of a sharp negative base effect (in October 2022, energy inflation peaked at 41.5%), but the inflation rates of all other main components also declined in October.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way.To begin with, HICP inflation fell to 2.9% in October, down from 4.3% in September, which was below the consensus and our own forecast.The bulk of the drop was thanks to energy price inflation, which fell to -11.1% from -4.6% on the back of a sharp negative base effect (in October 2022, energy inflation peaked at 41.5%), but the inflation rates of all other main components also declined in October.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Junior Finance Analyst, Steno Research

Ulrik Simmelholt

Junior Finance Analyst

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.</li><li>Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.</li><li>This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. </li></ul>

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey, we’ll probe the probability for a cyclical rebound and assess the implications for equities in particular.Take away: Divergence in soft and hard data has scared the outlook for earnings in US industrials the most. Equity betas to soft and hard data show an interesting discrepancy. Long US industrials vs short German industrials look interesting here. 2 reasons for PMI bullishness, 2 reasons for PMI bearishness.This week has been all about our ‘business cycle week’ here at Steno Research and for this one we’ll zoom in on both soft and hard data from the manufacturing sector and put it into an equity perspective. 

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Managing Partner, VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)

Managing Partner

Valuation & Research Specialists (VRS) is a boutique financial advisor with more than 17 years of experience in Corporate Valuation and Finance, and a diversified client base including some of the largest Companies in Greece.

Since 2002, VRS has completed more than 200 engagements in the areas of business valuation and financial analysis for more than 100 clients in a wide range of industries.

VRS has been honored to work with small and large private and publicly traded companies in Europe and overseas.

Boutique Financial Advisor

<ul><li>The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets across households and corporations, and strong labor markets.</li><li>Although recent positive developments in the Euro area have led to better growth projections, challenges such as high energy costs, monetary tightening, and weak consumption persist.</li><li>Risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced, but uncertainty remains elevated.</li></ul>

The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets across households and corporations, and strong labor markets.Although recent positive developments in the Euro area have led to better growth projections, challenges such as high energy costs, monetary tightening, and weak consumption persist.Risks to growth and inflation are broadly balanced, but uncertainty remains elevated.

Quarterly Macro Note - Eurozone Economy - March 30, 2023

Germany

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF is an exchange-traded fund incorporated in the USA. The ETF's objective is to provide investment results of publicly traded security in the European Monetary Union markets, as measured by the MSCI EMU Index. The ETF invests in a representative sample of index stocks using a "portfolio sampling" technique and weighting the constituents based on their market cap.  

iShares MSCI Eurozone ETF (EZU US)

Macro Regime Watch: An In-Depth Look at Regime Trends Across Major Markets

Welcome back to Macro Regime Watch, where we dive into our nowcasting models to analyze Growth, Inflation, and Liquidity trends. Over recent...

Steno Research

Euro-area flash inflation: Lower headline, high core

Euro-area flash inflation dropped to 2.9% y/y in Oct (consensus: 3.1% y/y), down from 4.3% y/y in Sep. This was the last of the three months with...

Nordea

Eurozone disinflation well on its way

Two key economic reports published in the eurozone today, are indicating that disinflation is well on its way To begin with, HICP inflation fell...

ABN AMRO

Equities Watch: Today’s Philly Fed Figures Make For Bullish Reading

Welcome to this fourth release in our “Business Cycle Week”, where, besides addressing the just released Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey,...

Steno Research

Quarterly Macro Note - Eurozone Economy - March 30, 2023

The economic outlook for the Euro area has slightly improved over the past quarter driven by declining energy prices, resilient balance sheets...

VRS (Valuation & Research Specialists)