FX Strategist

Greg Gibbs

Fundamental analysis of topical themes in FX

Amplifying Global FX Capital

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is a licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We are producing a regular trading view orientated macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange. We invite you to view an “executive summary” of these reports in “AmpGFX Reports” under our “Research” menu.

These reports are drawn from the analysis of Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company. The trading performance is posted periodically on our website. We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

Greg Gibbs has spent his working life of more than 26 years in financial markets, beginning in 1989 at the Reserve Bank of Australia, after completing a Bachelor of Economics Degree (Honours) at the Australian National University. He has been a CFA Charterholder since 2005. He has worked in Sydney, Singapore, New York and London for major global banks and presented on foreign exchange markets to major financial institutions and companies around the world, and maintained a high profile in the financial media.

Before Amplifying Global FX Capital, Greg was the Head of Asia Pacific Market Strategy at the Royal Bank of Scotland based Singapore. He now resides in Breckenridge Colorado.

FX & Rates

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields.

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year.  While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all that much in the last year or two, the USD experienced a broad-based rise in line with the rise in US yields today.  The rise in yields is too sharp, and risks surrounding other currencies (Italy-EUR, Brexit-GDP, tariffs/oil - Asia FX) too large to ignore.  Recent Fed comments suggest they will raise rates for some time, Amazon wage hikes gel with a tightening labor market, and US ISM reports are very strong.  Breakevens and term premium estimates have hardly moved this year and point to upside risk for US yields. 

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist, CrossBorder Capital

Michael J. Howell

Cross-Asset Liquidity Strategist

Implementing Research Using Alt Data & AI

CrossBorder Capital

CrossBorder Capital is a London-based independent investment advisory firm. Founded in 1996, it exploits a gap in the investment arena by focusing on Central bank liquidity. 

It specialises in the monitoring and analysis of global liquidity flows - an important determinant of asset prices, from currencies through to bonds, equities and real estate.

CrossBorder Capital implements its investment strategy and currently manages over US$ 350m.


<ul>
<li>EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018</li>
<li>EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust</li>
<li>We remain cautious because of weak Global Liquidity, but next up-cycle Asian-led</li>
<li>Watch for a signal from Asian yield curves that cycle is re-starting</li>
</ul>


EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018
EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust
We remain cautious because of weak Global Liquidity, but next up-cycle Asian-led
Watch for a signal from Asian yield curves that cycle is re-starting


EM Forex Risks Drop, Or Why Turkey Is The Turkey

<ul>
<li>Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity</li>
<li>Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC</li>
<li>Asia likely to lead new cycle upwards in 2019, but no signs yet</li>
<li>Watch out for more volatility, steepening yield curves and signs of economic slowdown</li>
</ul>


Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity
Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC
Asia likely to lead new cycle upwards in 2019, but no signs yet
Watch out for more volatility, steepening yield curves and signs of economic slowdown


Asian Central Banks Slow Liquidity Injections: Global Liquidity Slumps At Fastest Rate Since 2008

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.  Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business activity and consumer confidence surveys suggest growth will sag through the rest of the year.  The RBNZ is likely to retain a neutral policy message in its statement next week, waiting for clearer evidence on the economy from Q3 labour and inflation reports.  The ANZ business activity survey next week may be important for near-term sentiment.  NZD gathered momentum from the GDP report and a broad rebound in global assets. The market continues to seek a big-picture top in the USD, but rising US inflation and tariff policy remain key supports for the USD.

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters.  Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business activity and consumer confidence surveys suggest growth will sag through the rest of the year.  The RBNZ is likely to retain a neutral policy message in its statement next week, waiting for clearer evidence on the economy from Q3 labour and inflation reports.  The ANZ business activity survey next week may be important for near-term sentiment.  NZD gathered momentum from the GDP report and a broad rebound in global assets. The market continues to seek a big-picture top in the USD, but rising US inflation and tariff policy remain key supports for the USD. 

New Zealand GDP Post-Mortem – NZD Still Vulnerable

Chart based progressive global trading strategies, Chart Partners

Thomas Schroeder

Chart based progressive global trading strategies

Chart Partners

Chart Partners objective is to discover medium-term cycle turns and profit opportunities before they unfold, within structural trends while preserving capital with clear degrees of risk. We have real return ideas. 

Markets are dynamic and trading systems must reflect this. It is crucial to determine underlying correlations and lead-lag relationships within global markets and the impact on linked instruments. Our weekly Chartonics product gives you short-term trading strategies that can be applied within the medium and longer term macro trends that are mapped out in our strategy updates. 

Our methodology fuses global market variables and isolates drivers in trends. We specialize in FX, index trade in NY and Asia with a focus on Asian stocks. 

Technical Analysis

Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index / Technical Analysis

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia.
Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low and break above tactical resistance does set a more bullish tone.
China A 50 futures are pressing on the 11,350/400 pattern breakout point that would shift risk dynamics in Asia (more bullish). HSI 27,500 will act as momentum point.
Nikkei bull breakout - We have been building a long position in Japan in anticipation of a bullish break above 23,000 pivot resistance that opens the way to our macro target above 25,000.
Break of NDX trendline sets in motion a big tech buckle that will impact US market breadth. Divergence underscore the fragile posture in the NDX.
The dollar is hanging on by a thread in Asia and caught between the Euro's bullish undertone and weak EM FX structures. 
US 10yr yield has broken higher out of bullish triangulation but is under scrutiny as previous attempts above 3% have faded. This will have a direct impact on the USD and the EM-DM spread.

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia.
Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low and break above tactical resistance does set a more bullish tone.
China A 50 futures are pressing on the 11,350/400 pattern breakout point that would shift risk dynamics in Asia (more bullish). HSI 27,500 will act as momentum point.
Nikkei bull breakout - We have been building a long position in Japan in anticipation of a bullish break above 23,000 pivot resistance that opens the way to our macro target above 25,000.
Break of NDX trendline sets in motion a big tech buckle that will impact US market breadth. Divergence underscore the fragile posture in the NDX.
The dollar is hanging on by a thread in Asia and caught between the Euro's bullish undertone and weak EM FX structures. 
US 10yr yield has broken higher out of bullish triangulation but is under scrutiny as previous attempts above 3% have faded. This will have a direct impact on the USD and the EM-DM spread.

United States

The euro is the official currency of the European Economic & Monetary Union.  The US dollar is the official currency of the United States of America.

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EURO/US DOLLAR (EURUSD CURNCY)

Old Skool Moves in US Yields and Dollar

US yields shot higher Wednesday after 10-year yields rose above previous highs for the year. While rising US yields haven’t helped the USD all...

Greg Gibbs

EM Forex Risks Drop, Or Why Turkey Is The Turkey

EM currency prospects look better than in early 2018 EM economic and capital flow fundamentals have remained robust We remain cautious because of...

Michael J. Howell

Asian Central Banks Slow Liquidity Injections: Global Liquidity Slumps At Fastest Rate Since 2008

Latest data through late-September show skidding Global Liquidity Global Liquidity falling at fastest pace since 2008 GFC Asia likely to lead new...

Michael J. Howell

New Zealand GDP Post-Mortem – NZD Still Vulnerable

Q2 was a good quarter after a lacklustre three quarters. Government spending is starting to kick in and may help support the economy, but business...

Greg Gibbs

Charts That Matter

This webcast outlines pivotal chart points that can change the DM/EM spread and risk in Asia. Shanghai composite bull reversal off of the 2016 low...

Thomas Schroeder

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52-week Range

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