Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets, At Any Rate

At Any Rate

Podcast by J.P. Morgan analysts on global markets

Analysts from J.P. Morgan’s Research team take a closer look at the stories behind some of the biggest trends, themes and developments in markets today.

FX & Rates

<ul><li>Market pricing reflects less Fed cuts than previously expected, with uncertainty surrounding the impact on the dollar</li><li>RBNZ rate cut delivered as expected, leading to potential further kiwi weakness</li><li>Labor market data and rate pricing are key factors to watch for potential future movements in FX markets</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Market pricing reflects less Fed cuts than previously expected, with uncertainty surrounding the impact on the dollarRBNZ rate cut delivered as expected, leading to potential further kiwi weaknessLabor market data and rate pricing are key factors to watch for potential future movements in FX marketsThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Global FX: Fed easing and dollar weakness: uneasy bedfellows

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Scotiabank

Scotiabank

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Scotiabank’s global foreign exchange strategy team provides in-depth regional insights and macro-economic analysis for G10 and advanced economies, Asia Pacific, and Latin America. Find technical and fundamental strategy reports focused on trade ideas, market risks, and the unfolding macro outlook. Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.</li><li>Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.</li><li>Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through last Tuesday.Non-Commercial (speculative) traders took a small net USD short position to a sizeable net USD long position overall, via a USD10bn swing in aggregate positioning in the major currencies we monitor for this report.Additional data shows Leveraged (hedge fund) traders cutting their USD4bn net USD short from last week to near flat while Real Money (institutional) halved their net USD short over the week to a little less than USD9bn.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.</li><li>These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?</li><li>The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.</li></ul>

Today, I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.These are the key questions I will address, and I will summarize both the pros and cons of each viewpoint, including my own bottom line: Is liquidity no longer improving, but rather at risk of weakening in the coming months? Is the economy accelerating rather than slowing? Is the commodity complex heavily undervalued or overvalued?The equity rotation paired with the sharp sell-off in Tech has had me thinking, and we therefore need to litmus-test every corner of our current thesis. Follow along below.

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

<ul><li>After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.</li><li>Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.</li><li>Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.</li></ul>

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.Risk assets seem to be stabilizing, with crypto leading a new bull wave, while metals are selling off right, left, and center alongside a turning tide in the USD versus Asian FX and Lat-Am FX overall.Over the week, our biggest concern, given our current tilt in industrial metals, is that manufacturing rebounds faster than anticipated by many.

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

<ul><li>Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.</li><li>The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.</li><li>However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.</li></ul>

Hello everyone, and welcome back to our weekly positioning watch.The debates about whether the US is heading for a recession are still touring the charts, as the labor market and other economic data soften back towards pre-pandemic levels.However, while some might be uncomfortable watching the US economy slow more than anticipated, the lack of ringing alarm bells and Powell’s recent victory lap on inflation have greenlighted markets to price in a soft landing as a 95-99% probability event by now when looking across positioning data.

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

New Zealand

The New Zealand dollar is the official currency of New Zealand.  

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NZD (NZD BGN CURNCY)

Global FX: Fed easing and dollar weakness: uneasy bedfellows

Summary: Weak levels and moderate volume in the asset class, with markets expecting Fed cuts in September and the dollar's reaction to cuts being...

At Any Rate

Weekly CFTC Sentiment Report - Speculative Sentiment Turns USD Bullish

Market sentiment continues to shift in favour of the USD, according to the latest Commitments of Traders data from the CFTC for the week through...

Scotiabank

Steno Signals #109 – What if We Are All Wrong on Liquidity, Rates and Commodities?

I am going to address three main topics of concern for investors given the current conflicting signals from the US economy.

Steno Research

Portfolio Watch: Here Comes the Metals Meltdown...

After a tricky few days, we have started gaining substantial traction in our portfolio again over the past 1-2 trading days.

Steno Research

Positioning Watch – The Soft Landing Is Moving Towards a Recovery Trade

Overall positioning and sentiment indicators are starting to diverge, though. Most indicators show continued support for risk assets in H2.

Steno Research

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