IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<div><p><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coupang" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28425:1" rel="noopener">Coupang (CPNG US)</a> is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.</p></div><div><p>Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. </p></div><div><p>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-initiation-delivering-the-goods" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48125" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods</a>, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-valuation-insights" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48708" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights</a> we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/coupang-ipo-upsized-deal-size" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:48991" rel="noopener">Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size</a>, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.</p></div><div><div class="content-highlight"><p>Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. </p></div></div>

Coupang (CPNG US) is the largest e-commerce platform in South Korea, according to Euromonitor. Coupang is best known for Rocket Delivery, which provides free, next-day delivery for orders placed any time of the day.Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. The number of the offer shares has increased from 120 million to 130 million shares due to a 10 million shares increase in the secondary tranche. At the final IPO price of $35 per share, Coupang will have a market cap of $60 billion. In Coupang IPO Initiation: Delivering the Goods, we opined that Coupang's fundamentals tick all the right boxes and worth a look, in our view. In Coupang IPO: Valuation Insights we noted was attractively priced for its growth potential vs global e-commerce peers at the original IPO price range of $27-30 per share. In Coupang IPO: Upsized Deal Size, Coupang remained attractive at the upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share.Updating for the final IPO net raise, our base-case DCF derived price target of $39.46 per share. As DCF-based target prices are subject to a wide range of variability, we present a sensitivity table to help investors gauge where target prices could head. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows that the IPO price has reasonable upside potential. 

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

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<p><strong>Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.</strong></p>
<p><strong>One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword.</strong> By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.</p>
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Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied EV of $12.3 billion, implied market cap of $14.4 billion, and implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO price range of $24 per share. Given such a low upside, we would pass on this IPO.
One of the long-term concerns we have about Wish is the fact that the number one priority of the company is price. This is a double-edged sword. By focusing on price as the number one priority, the company has been able to gain a tremendous number of customers that put price as their number one importance. Nonetheless, it may be difficult for the company to generate relatively high profit margins in the long run since Wish may have difficulties in gaining customers that value quality over price when purchasing products through mobile or online platforms.


Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

Japan Specialist

Mark Chadwick

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makuake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29281:1" rel="noopener">Makuake Inc (4479 JP)</a> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> is a unique online platform that helps companies to launch new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent incubation umbrella and debuted on Mothers in December 2019. The company's core business is the </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> platform, which supports new product launches, brings them in front of buyers/supporters, before formal market release. The </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> Incubator Studio (MIS) </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">helps</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialize products via their platform. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":360}'> </span></p></div><div><p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">This note looks at the recent Q4 results, while the following note discusses in more detail the Market, Moat and Management.: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/small-cap-growth-makuake-4479-launching-innovative-ideas" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:43337" rel="noopener">Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas</a> </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":360}'> </span></p></div>

Makuake Inc (4479 JP)  is a unique online platform that helps companies to launch new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent incubation umbrella and debuted on Mothers in December 2019. The company's core business is the Makuake platform, which supports new product launches, brings them in front of buyers/supporters, before formal market release. The Makuake Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialize products via their platform.  This note looks at the recent Q4 results, while the following note discusses in more detail the Market, Moat and Management.: Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas  

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Innovative Ideas Drive Strong Q4 Sales

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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makuake-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29281:1" rel="noopener">Makuake Inc (4479 JP)</a>  is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span></p>
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<p><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">The seven-year-old company is a product of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/cyberagent-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8197:1" rel="noopener">CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)</a>  incubation umbrella and debuted on TSE Mothers in December 2019. Since then, sales have grown 128% to reach ¥2.1bn and operating profit +843% to ¥0.53bn. </span></p>
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<p><strong><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">What does it do?</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> </span> </strong></p>
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<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake’s</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> platform helps to launch new products, bring them in front of buyers (or supporters), before a formal market release. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> <span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake takes 20% of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on transactions.</span></span>
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<span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">Makuake</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialise products via their platform.</span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto"> </span><span xml:lang="EN-US" data-contrast="auto">MIS charges a fixed fee for product development consultation plus 20% of GMV. </span><span data-ccp-props='{"201341983":0,"335559739":160,"335559740":259}'> </span>
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<div>Makuake's <a href="https://www.makuake.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener">website</a> is home to a wide-range of products, from well-known brands such as <em>Asics</em> to entrepreneurs looking to raise funds for their creative ideas. Here is a selection of weird and wonderful products ranging from a "wallet that you cannot lose", to a "laptop carrying T-shirt", and a new "iPhone holder" for your car. </div>
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Makuake Inc (4479 JP)  is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online.  


The seven-year-old company is a product of the CyberAgent Inc (4751 JP)  incubation umbrella and debuted on TSE Mothers in December 2019. Since then, sales have grown 128% to reach ¥2.1bn and operating profit +843% to ¥0.53bn. 


What does it do?  




Makuake’s platform helps to launch new products, bring them in front of buyers (or supporters), before a formal market release.  Makuake takes 20% of Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) on transactions.


Makuake Incubator Studio (MIS) helps firms with strong R&amp;D to develop and commercialise products via their platform. MIS charges a fixed fee for product development consultation plus 20% of GMV.  



Makuake's website is home to a wide-range of products, from well-known brands such as Asics to entrepreneurs looking to raise funds for their creative ideas. Here is a selection of weird and wonderful products ranging from a "wallet that you cannot lose", to a "laptop carrying T-shirt", and a new "iPhone holder" for your car. 





Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst, Obex Capital Research

Aaron Gabin

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research Analyst

TMT & Consumer Independent Equity Research

Obex Capital Research

“Obex” is Latin for Barriers to Entry. Obex Capital Management’s investment philosophy is driven by an intense focus on which business model’s Barriers to Entry are able to withstand the ever increasing competitive disruption in the TMT and Consumer Sectors.

<p>We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term replatforming of how the global economy functions.</p><p>COVID has turbocharged these trends, which may be why we’ve seen such massive outperformance by the stocks at the forefront of these trends.</p><div><p>Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.</p></div>

We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world today…offline to online transition of massive TAMs. Even the largest TAMs in the world – groceries, entertainment, autos, commerce, finance, real estate, etc. are still incredibly early in the long term replatforming of how the global economy functions.COVID has turbocharged these trends, which may be why we’ve seen such massive outperformance by the stocks at the forefront of these trends.Obex’s fundamental research process is focused on secular change in the TMT and Consumer sectors. We seek to differentiate between fundamental business analysis and security analysis. Before deciding if a security’s pricing and positioning merit a long or short position, we analyze the four pillars of business fundamentals (Secular Factors, TAM, Competitive Advantage, Business Model) in order to determine if this is a “good” or “not so good” opportunity.

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

Coupang IPO: Trading Debut

Coupang has priced its IPO at $35 per share, above the previously upsized IPO price range of $32-34 per share. Our DCF sensitivity analysis shows...

Arun George

Wish IPO Valuation Analysis: Focus on Price Is a Double-Edged Sword

Our base case valuation of Wish is an implied price per share of $24.50 per share. This represents just a 2% upside to the high end of the IPO...

Douglas Kim

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Innovative Ideas Drive Strong Q4 Sales

Makuake has a unique business model that helps entrepreneurs and companies to launch and commercialise products and services on line. It is scaling...

Mark Chadwick

Small Cap Growth: Makuake (4479) - Launching Innovative Ideas

Makuake is a unique online platform that launches new products and services online. The seven-year-old company is a product of the Cyberagent...

Mark Chadwick

IAC / ANGI 2Q20: Doubling Down

We have always enjoyed following IAC because we share a worldview with management about investing behind THE major secular trend in the world...

Aaron Gabin

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