Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, I wrote about <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-4385-applying-for-tse-prime-means-topix-inclusion-in-4-5-months" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Mercari's likely TOPIX inclusion 4-5 months later</a>. 4.5mos later, it had been included (<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/mercari-4385-topix-inclusion-finally-and-it-s-bigger-than-it-looks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:70912" rel="noopener">Mercari (4385) TOPIX Inclusion, Finally... And It's Bigger Than It Looks</a>) .</li>
<li>The publicly-visible announcement data often does not show TOPIX inclusion parameters. A little sleuthing gets you there. </li>
<li>It's <em>still</em> bigger than it looks, but some large holders have recently been selling.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, I wrote about Mercari's likely TOPIX inclusion 4-5 months later. 4.5mos later, it had been included (Mercari (4385) TOPIX Inclusion, Finally... And It's Bigger Than It Looks) .
The publicly-visible announcement data often does not show TOPIX inclusion parameters. A little sleuthing gets you there. 
It's still bigger than it looks, but some large holders have recently been selling.


Mercari (4385) - End-July TOPIX Inclusion Update

Independent Research, US Dominant Players, Investment Talk

Investment Talk

Independent Research, US Dominant Players

Investment Talk is for readers who wish to learn about companies that are potentially outside of their own circle of research, as well as those who are longing to become part of a community of like-minded investors and learn more about investment research. I would describe myself as a long-term investor who typically takes a 3Y to 5Y outlook, before reassessing once that period matures. I follow the adage that one should research, reach a conclusion, and then verify and continue to hold so long as the thesis remains intact. My own investing style is one that seeks to find dominant players within their respective market who have shown signs of monopoly or oligopolistic behaviour, unlikely to be disrupted, in tandem with discovering market disruptors who have a high likelihood of disrupting their respective market. Equally (and weighted accordingly) I seek to discover more nuanced, misunderstood, situations with a shorter time frame.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>It is my opinion that the pull-forward exhibited in <em>this business</em> stands to be a net positive, regardless of how the share price might behave in the interim.</li><li>The last 24 months have brought in 43M new active buyers to the Etsy marketplace, as well as 2.6M new sellers for a grand total of 90.1M buyers (+9.2M YoY) and 5.3M sellers (+900K YoY)</li><li>Etsy managed to surprise investors in Q4, putting up greater than anticipated revenue ($717M/+16%) for the period, as well as record GMS ($4.2B/+17%)</li></ul>

It is my opinion that the pull-forward exhibited in this business stands to be a net positive, regardless of how the share price might behave in the interim.The last 24 months have brought in 43M new active buyers to the Etsy marketplace, as well as 2.6M new sellers for a grand total of 90.1M buyers (+9.2M YoY) and 5.3M sellers (+900K YoY)Etsy managed to surprise investors in Q4, putting up greater than anticipated revenue ($717M/+16%) for the period, as well as record GMS ($4.2B/+17%)

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Credit

<ul><li>Etsy ended 2021 on a positive note with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability.</li><li>It has seen a rise in its customer base as a result of Covid-19 tailwinds which brought millions of people to Etsy for the first time.</li><li>Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.</li></ul>

Etsy ended 2021 on a positive note with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability.It has seen a rise in its customer base as a result of Covid-19 tailwinds which brought millions of people to Etsy for the first time.Baptista Research looks to evaluate the different factors that could influence the company's price in the near future and attempts to carry out an independent valuation of the company using a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) methodology.

Etsy Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Etsy had a strong fourth quarter, capping off a strong 2021 with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability.</li><li>During the holiday season, when many retailers were experiencing supply chain congestion, Etsy sellers were able to bring the benefits of shopping small to a larger audience.</li><li>In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.</li></ul>

Etsy had a strong fourth quarter, capping off a strong 2021 with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability.During the holiday season, when many retailers were experiencing supply chain congestion, Etsy sellers were able to bring the benefits of shopping small to a larger audience.In this report, we have carried out a fundamental analysis of the historical financial statements of the company.

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/huitongda" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33789:1" rel="noopener">Huitongda (1566215D CH)</a> is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.</li>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/huitongda-network-ipo-initiation-clicks-to-bricks" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:63428" rel="noopener">Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks</a>, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   </li>
<li>For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. </li>
</ul>



Huitongda (1566215D CH) is a fast-growing commerce and service platform focused on China’s lower-tier retail market. It will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318 million.
In Huitongda Network IPO Initiation: Clicks to Bricks, we noted the positives (addressable market, solid growth and profitability) and key negatives (low margins which reflect a fragmented and competitive market).   
For investors willing to brave the gloomy IPO market, our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the low end of the price range. 


Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

United States

Etsy, Inc. provides e-commerce services. The Company offers handmade and vintage items, art, and supplies, as well as regular items such as clothing, housewares, paper goods, candles, bags and purses, music, and wood working items. Etsy serves users throughout the United States.

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Etsy Inc (ETSY US)

Mercari (4385) - End-July TOPIX Inclusion Update

Mercari (4385) will join TOPIX at 28 July close. The data suggests 16/5mm shares to buy, which is only 2x 3mo ADV but would be 18-20% of Real World...

Travis Lundy

Etsy: House of Brands, Revisited.

It is my opinion that the pull-forward exhibited in this business stands to be a net positive, regardless of how the share price might behave in...

Investment Talk

Etsy Inc.: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Etsy ended 2021 on a positive note with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability. It has seen a rise in its customer base as a result of...

Baptista Research

Etsy Inc.: Investment Thesis

Etsy had a strong fourth quarter, capping off a strong 2021 with new highs in GMS, revenue, and profitability. During the holiday season, when...

Baptista Research

Huitongda Network IPO: Valuation Insights

Huitongda will launch an HKEx IPO on Monday to raise up to US$318m. Our valuation analysis suggests that the IPO price range is attractive at the...

Arun George

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